Towards another mass
ANOTHER MASS upsurge is mounting against a US-backed dictatorship and a key ally of US imperialism, the dictatorship of Zia ul-
The following comment on the perspectives in Pakistan today was written by Tariq Ali, a well-known Marxist writer, author of a number of books on Pakistan and India. The article was published as a guest column in the May 15 issue of Was Tun, the paper of the German
PAKISTAN explosion?
Haq in Pakistan. section of the Fourth International.
For almost four decades, Pakistan has stumbled from one crisis to another. There have been three coups d'etat, the breakup of the country [that is, the secession of East Pakistan to become Bangladesh], the execution of the country's first and last elected premier Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1979, and now there is a military dictatorship that is defending itself tooth and claw.
The return of the executed premier's daughter, Benazir Bhutto, represents a turning point. The men with the guns have a great fear of this unarmed woman. The question is serious: Can Benazir overthrow the dictator Zia ul-Haq?
The generals have every reason for concern. Benazir Bhutto is the only political figure in the country who enjoys support among the masses. A few weeks ago, half a million people poured out to greet her in Lahore - the biggest political rally in the history of the country.
In the coming four weeks, the fever thermometer will rise still more. Benazir will visit every major city. Her message is simple - for elections in which every party can participate. There is no doubt that her Pakistan People's Party would win an overwhelming victory. And therefore General Zia does not want to grant such elections.
However, his room for maneuver is very limited. At the end of last year - under US pressure - he had to lift martial law.
Today, the soldiers are back in their barracks. Of course, they could openly take control again at any time, if the situation became more difficult, but even then there would be no guarantee that Zia would remain in power. His deputy, General Arif, has an evident hungry look. He could send his boss packing.
Everything depends on the development of Benazir's campaign. In Lahore she proclaimed, "Our movement has will end with Zia's fall and with the freely who is to rule People deciding
At the time of writing, her circuit is going through Punjab, where the army has the most support. If - despite the growing support for
- Zia holds on to power, then she has no choice but to take a
A lot depends on Benazir's ability in the coming weeks to make the correct strategic and tactical choices. Her opponents think that tensions in her People's Party will soon bring the campaign to a standstill. In Pakistan, there is a widespread tendency to minimize the mistakes that Bhutto unquestionably made with the refrain, "It wasn't him, it was the bad men around him."
Benazir has deftly taken advantage of this feeling and has pushed a lot of the Bhutto old guard out of the way and brought new faces into limelight. She knows that her supporters are the urban and rural poor.
Her first serious dilemma could arise at the end of her tour when the poor realize that nothing has changed. Then she will face the decision whether
Zia ul-Hag she should dare to make a frontal attack. Demonstrations are at best a dress rehearsal for insurrection. They cannot replace it.
Most recently the comparisons with the new Philippine president, Cory Aquino, ring hollow. There the US played a decisive role in Marcos' fall. More than Aquino, it feared the guerrilla movement of the New People's Army. So special US envoy Philip Habib jetted to Manila to get General Ramos to change sides and smooth the way for a peaceful transition.
In Pakistan, there is no guerrilla movement. On the other hand, the Soviet army is just across the border in Afghanistan. The West is therefore supporting Zia and flooding the country with military aid
Since 95 per cent of the Pakistani parties are for an end to the war in Afghanistan and a negotiated settlement with Moscow that would allow the refugees to return, the idea of a bourgeois democracy in Pakistan makes the US State Department nervous.
Nonetheless, after Benazir's return, Washington is left without a great deal of maneuvering room. The situation in Pakistan is even more explosive than in the Philippines. If Zia hangs onto his presidential chair, confrontation will become unavoidable. And it will not simply be Benazir against Zia, but more fatefully, the army against the people. O