Dim prospects for the right A PARLIAMENTARY election is coming up in West Germany on January 25, 1987. Helmut Kohl and his government of Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) and liberals (FDP) cannot look foward to it with any great assurance. The SPD [the West German Social Democratic Party] hopes to be able to win with its new candidate for chancellor, Johannes Rau. But the result will depend in large part on the attitude taken by the Greens, which is unpredictable.
The state elections just held in Lower Saxony on June 15 sum up the situation. Since 1976, this state has been covered by the rightwing CDU leader, Ernest Albrecht. In 1982, he won an absolute majority of 50.7%. At the same time, the SPD got 36.5%, its lowest score in 30 years.
Last week, the CDU fell back International Viewpoint 14 July 1986 to 44.3% (-6%). The SPD got 42.1% (+5.6%). The Greens got 7.1% (+0.6%). And the liberals got 6%, just enough to remain in the parliament. And sO, Albrecht was able, just, to hold
But he has to deal which in any case only give him a majority of one
Knowing that the FDP was in falling below the threshold and losing representation in parliament, the CDU got some of its own supporters to vote for the liberals in order to be able to form a coalition with them. looks bad for Kohl. In all the local elections since 1983, CDU has been losing ground, and in four cases its losses have been
Kohl has been chancellor, 11
The CDU has lost ground in eight of them. The SPD has gained in eight, and the Greens likewise.
So, it is likely that the CDUsocial democrats have little chance of winning an absolute majority.
would then have to form a coalition with the Greens, which is a pretty frightening prospect for the intrepid German social democrats.
As for the Greens, they are no angels either. Some are already thinking about the oppor tunities for them in government, while others shrink from the idea of providing ministers for the world's second greatest imperialist power.
All of this offers the prospect of quite a poker game in January.
Guy Hendrikx 13