The stakes in the Brazilian general elections
Elections for all levels of government will take place in Brazil in November, in a situation in which the dictatorship has been rapidly losing ground and the other dictatorships in the region are decaying or tottering. These elections come, for example, only a matter of weeks after the Bolivian military dictatorship was forced to turn the government over to a civilian regime by a general strike. Furthermore, major factor in the Brazilian elections will be the first mass workers party that has emerged in Latin America since the 1930's, the Partido do Trabalho (PT), the Workers Party, a party that has elements of a socialist program and in which revolutionary socialist currents are influential.
Sao-Paulo - In May 1982, General Tulio Chaga Nogueira, commander of the Third Army, made an urgent appeal to the Brazilian bosses:
"The heads of businesses should pick their candidates for the November elections on all levels. If they fail to do so, they will run the risk of seeing this contry which was born and will die democratic, suffer from the impact of socialist designs."
The general's wishes are being satisfied and his predictions are being borne out. The bosses are putting up their candidates and pouring money into the elections. But on the other side, the Workers Party (PT) is running a lot of working-class and socialist candidates. It is campaigning in 21 out of the 23 Brazilian states.
This is the most important aspect of the coming elections for the federal and state legislatures, state governors, mayors and city council members. For the first time since 1946, the workers have a chance, thanks to the PT's campaign, to vote for their own candidates. Moreover, the PT's national electoral platform, "Land, Work, and Freedom," calls in no uncertain terms for a struggle against the military dictatorship and for socialism.
THE MILITARY POLITICAL MANUEVERS
In a famous speech to the general staff of the armed forces, the man behind the Brazilian "liberalization," General Goldbery Couto e Silva, clearly defined the objective of the reform planned by the dictatorship. It was to stabilize the regime 10
MATEDO!
1550 SIN W Partido do Trabalho (DR). by creating the appearance of a multi-party system. In fact, it would be a twoparty setup, offering a choice only between the dictatorship's party (the Social Jemocratic Party, PDS) and "the only viable opposition, " the Brazilian Demo cratic Movement (PMDB).
In pursuance of this perspective, the government carried out certain maneuvers. For example, it promoted a phantom party, the Brazilian Party of Labor, (PTB), headed by Ivete Vargas (the daughter of the 1940s populist caudillo Getulio Vargas) and former president Janio Quadros, also a successful populist politician. This was a means of countering the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) of Lionel Brizola, former governor of the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Brizzola's party is linked to the Second International.
The government also engineered the unification of the People's Party (PP), a small party representing some bankers, with the PMDB in order to push the latter further to the right.
But the most important maneuvers were successive changes in the electoral laws in order to smooth the path for the dictatorship's candidates.
Some of these changes speak for themselves. In July 1982, barely four months before the elections, the constitution was drastically overhauled. Representation of the small states in the federal legislature was increased. The requirement that parties get a minimum of 5 per cent to be represented in parliament was abolished. This was so small parties such as the PTB could get into parliament and serve as pawns in building coalitions.
The presidential elections were postponed to the beginning of 1984. An individual constituency system was set up to replace the present system of proportional representation. A two-thirds vote in congress was made necessary to amend the constitution. The makeup of the electoral college that selects the president was altered, with the state elections getting an increased weight, regardless of the population of the states concerned.
Fearing the possibility of electoral coalitions among the opposition parties, the government even before these other changes established the system of the "tied vote," according to which no split ballots are to be counted. Unless all the marks on a ballot are for the same party, it will be thrown out.
This means that voters have to write on ballots drawn up by the government six names in order for the posts of governor, senator, member the federal parliament, member of the state legislature, and member of the city council, and that all these candidates have to belong to the same party. It is impossible to prediet what the result of such a procedure will be.
A test carried out among functionaries of the supreme electoral tribunal showed
that more than 50 per cent made mistakes, thereby invalidating their ballots. Some sections of the opposition are accusing the government of trying to effectively cancel the elections by organizing them in such a way that more than 50 per cent of the votes will be thrown out.
DICTATORSHIP IN DISARRAY
Nonetheless, these ep heavy-handed maneu vers and their sometimes contradictory character are a symptom of the disarray among the dictatorship's strategists. The reason for their confusion is the difficulty, we might even say the impossibility, of averting defeat of the PDS in the it is likely, in fact, that the dicatorship is going to find itself still more acutely isolated in the electoral arena. Its isolation has, indeed, been steadily growing since the beginning of the 1970s.
In the vote for the senate, the vote of
National (ARENA, the predecessor of the PDS) dropped from 47.3 per cent in 1970 to 35 per cent in 1978. In the congressional same period its vote dropped from 48.4 percent to 40 per
The final blow to General Goldbery Couto e Silva's scheme was the emergence of the PT and prospects of a strong vote for its most militant candidates (the polls prediet that Luis Inacio da Silva, "Lula," will get 15 per cent to 20 per cent of the
The possibility that the PDS may end up in a minority position in the main states, and even in the federal legislature puts the dictatorship in a still more difficult position and is forcing it to prepare moves to coopt the opposition
Big maneuvers are already in the works. Some sections of the PMDB grouped around Tancredo Neves, the party's candidate for governor in the state of Minas Gerais; other former members of the PP; and the old right wing of the PMDB have met to work out a plan for forming a Liberal Party after the elecwould then collaborate with the dictatorship and unite with the PTB in order to try to form a new majority coalition with the PDS. Moreover, as a result of such a split, the PMDB, which will probably remain the strongest opposition party electorally, would suffer a new blow and lose some of the forces that came to it as an opposition to the
This political wheeling and dealing is designed for a period when all sorts of difficulties are going to increase. is going to get a substantial representation in parliament, and its electoral score will represent a step forward in consciousness and organization for a large number of workers. On the other hand, after the November 15 elections, the Brazilian
PT leader Lula addresses meeting (DR). bourgeoisie is going to try to impose a severe austerity policy, involving a very drastic wage freeze and massive layoffs. And this could spark large-scale workers mobilizations.
### DARKENING ECONOMIC
HORIZONS
The Brazilian economy is sinking into a very grave crisis. In 1980, the growth of gross national product was still 8% This year, it has fallen by 2%. It is possible that the annual rate of inflation will top its previous record of 113%. (In the first half of this year, the prices of cigaautomobiles, and electrical appliances nave already increased respectively by 130%, 127%, and 133%).
Alongside this, the imperialist panies and some sections of finance capital are continuing to make fabulous profits. The profits of 178 companies in the financial sector have increased by 87.6% this year. This amounts to a sum equivalent to the minimum wage for 8 million workers, six times the national budget for education and culture, and 22 times the appropriation for public health.
At the same time, the ills of the are worsening. The foreign debt is growing at a dizzying rate, and is expected this year to exceed the fabulous sum of 100 billion dollars. In 1974, the service on the foreign debt (repayment and interest) amounted to 33%: of exports, in 1975 it was 41%, in 1976 47%, in 1977 51%, in 1979 629, in 1980 68% and this year it will be 71%.
The chairman of the National Confederation of Industrialists, Mario Garnero, summed up the view of the employers in the following terms: "If this rate of inflation continues, it is going to break our backs, and break the back of the liberalization' too."
minister of the economy Simonsen made a public political comeback to call for an immediate, drastic pay freeze, which would mean an immediate cut in real wages. This is undoubtedly what the dictatorship is planning to do after the elections.
Even if the outcome of the elections is favorable for the dictatorship and its maneuvers succeed, this will not be sufficient for it to be able to impose such an austerity program. The regime will have to resort to repressive measures as well, while these may not be all out.
We are already seeing some demonstrations of force that point in the direction of more repression. The clearest one, both by its severity and its choice of victims, was the sentencing of some priests and peasants in the state of Para to a total of 130 years in prison for taking part in land occupations.
Against this background, five parties are running in the elections. The PDS and the PMDB are campaigning in all states, the PT in 21, and the PDT and PTB, in
CROOKED ELECTIONEERING
The PDS campaign is based on the power of money, the state apparatus, and corruption. One need only cite a few outstanding examples. In the state of Cera in the impoverished northeast, one of the poorest states in the country, the goverhired 16,000 new porters and
During the World Cup soccer matches, the rerunning of parts disputed by Brazil was interrupted by the governor's political propaganda. In the city of Amargosa,
Bahia state, where there is a severe water shortage, the trucks bringing water were covered with propaganda for the PDS candidates. In the state of Mato Grosso, the municipal employees were required to sign a pledge to support the PDS. Innumerable such cases
The PMDB campaign is focussing on the theme of "make your vote count," trying to capture the discontent against the dictatorship and to limit the electoral impact of the PT and the PDT, which may get good results in Rio de Janeiro and in Rio Grande do Sul.
In fact, within the opposition the PMDB and the PT are competing for leadership in the struggle for democratic rights. The involvement of the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB), as well as the Communist Party of Brazil (PC do B., a pro-Albanian group) in the PMDB lends the party a certain credibility as a miliopposition to the dictatorship.
The two Communist parties are the most intransigent of the enemies. Recently, Joao Amazonas, gene-
ral secretary of the PC do B, said "the PT to use the "make your vote count" arguand 'Lula' are the best allies the govern- ment but resorted to less public opera-
The PMDB's political and programatic dates.
ment has today." pretences are creating a lot of confusion among workers about its real role and providing a left cover for its most rightwing candidates.
Nonetheless, many PMDB candidates cannot even pretend to be opponents of the dictatorship. For example, Miro Teixeira, the candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, is simply the political heir of the outgoing governor, Chagas Freitas, one of the most corrupt politicians in the country, who happens to be the only non-ARENA member appointed to a governorship by the dictatorship.
Then there is Camata, the candidate for governor of the state of Spirito Santo, who was an ARENA deputy for 16 years and even vice chairman of the government's parliamentary fraction when General Geisel was president.
A CRUCIAL TEST FOR THE PT
The quotations from