The reaction against the tax has triggered a major crisis in the government and the Tory Party. Mrs. Thatcher is now the most unpopular Prime Minister since opinion polls began in 1937 and Labour are some 24% ahead of the Tories in the polls. Tory MPs with marginal - and not so marginal — seats are in a panic. The resignation of 18 Tory councillors in West Oxfordshire, and others elsewhere, over the poll tax has been extremely damaging.
There is now much speculation in Britain as to whether Thatcher herself can survive and whether the Tories can continue until the next general election which is still over two years away. Thatcher herself is now an electoral liability and Michael
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BRITAIN Poll tax riot
Heseltine, a previous Tory Minister of Defence who has distanced himself from the government since resigning from the Cabinet, is waiting in the wings for his chance to challenge for the leadership. Many Tories see a switch to Heseltine, and some substantial concessions in the structure of the poll tax, as the only chance of winning the next election.
But it is not as easy as that. The Tories remain split over Europe. Heseltine represents a wing of the party and ruling class who look towards Europe. Thatcher represents Atlanticism and is opposed to further European integration. They are on opposite sides of the fence. A switch to Heseltine would involve a major realignment of Britain's foreign policy and one which a major section of the British ruling class would oppose. Any challenge to Thatcher would therefore be bitterly fought with this issue at the centre. Already Norman Tebbit, who represents the extreme right of the party, has said he
There is therefore no easy way out for the Tories, and their problems are still
They lost the recent MidStaffordshire by-election in a spectacular Labour victory. They now face local elections in May, which will again be a referendum on the poll tax, at which the Tories will crash again. Swathes of Tory councillors are going to be swept from office and dozens of Tory Councils will go from Tory or Alliance (the centre party) to Labour, bringing more panic and confusion to the Tory ranks. They may well lose as many as a thousand seats. At the same time the economic situation gives the Tories little room for manoeuvre. The squeeze through interest rates is not working, the balance of trade problem is not resolved, inflation is on the increase and the official inflation rate may soon be
H O500 ME BLOODY AGAIN I ROLL RAX in double figures, with the actual rate
Nor is the poll tax going to go away. With the opinion polls predicting that between eight and nine million people intend to refuse to pay, the issue is going to run and run. The government has now charge-capped some councils (put a legal limit on what they can spend) but this is fraught with problems since it denies their assertion that the tax "improves local democracy".
The Labour Party response to the poll tax has been as weak at local level as at the national level. Although the left has fought for Labour councils not to set the rate for the tax or implement it, in every case they have done so. At the present time, however, the bulk of the population see it as "Maggie's Tax" and mainly blame central government for it, although this may not last when local authorities begin enforcing it.
Mass non-payment is now clearly the driving force behind the campaign to defeat the tax. It is in itself a major challenge to the government and could in the end affect its stability. In Scotland, where the tax was introduced earlier, there are still 850,000 people refusing to pay after a year and there is serious destabilization of the regional administrations there.
Huge gap between official unions and demonstrators
The domination of "new realism" in the trade unions is a big problem in this campaign. The TUC organized a rally against the tax recently which was by invitation only and at which people were told that wrong. The gap between the union bureaucracy and those on the streets opposing the tax is now huge. But the left cannot accept this situa-
The poll tax poses big problems for the unions which have to TIPE be tackled. Trade unionists in local government are expected to administer and collect the tax. Post Office unionists are expected to deliver the bills and the threatening letters. The government has taken powers to force employers to deduct the tax from the wage packets of those who refuse to pay — a huge issue for the unions. The tax will generate massive attacks on local authoriattempts to balance their books or to comply with charge-capping. Some trade union branches
BRITAIN basis that it will worsen labour relations in the industry. Within the civil service unions, opposition has been focussed on possible deductions for non-payment from claimants' benefit and in a number of areas limited strike action has already occurred.
Within local government trade unions the battle over the poll tax has been particularly fierce. Over many years the amount of money given by central government to pay for local services has been drastically reduced. The Labour leadership and its local minions have argued against councils not setting the poll tax and individuals not paying it on the grounds that without this money the wages of council employees will not be paid and services not maintained.
This position has found support within the unions too, with Liverpool City NALGO demanding that the council set the poll tax to protect jobs and services. Such arguments are familiar - they have been consistently used over the last ten years in debates on how to combat central government attacks. "Dented shield" strategy divides unions from community
This position - known as the "dented shield" - denies the possibility that if the unions and community stand together, and are supported by local councillors, the government can be defeated. The answer to this is: to oppose the poll tax, defend jobs and services and to demand money from central government to pay. It is the Tories that have created the situation by bringing in the poll tax and reducing the money provided for local services and they can resolve it by abolishing the tax and restoring the money.
Without such a fight there is a real danger that it will be local government trade unionists and the local community that are made to pay for the poll tax, a danger that becomes greater after charge capping. And within the anti-poll tax movement there will be forces that do not immediately understand the importance of the fight against cuts in jobs and services. The slogan "no cuts—no poll tax", and the building of strong links between local anti-poll tax campaigns and the trade unions to pursue this line, can help combat this danger.
The Tories have lost their mandate to govern. People are not prepared to wait two years to get rid of this tax. A campaign is needed to get the Tories out now
LABOUR have already passed policy in opposition to this, committing to strike action if deduction of wages is enforced. Some employers are unhappy about it as well. The Engineering Employers' Federation is objecting to attachment of wages on the and that means building non-payment on a massive scale alongside trade union action against all the effects of the poll tax. *
1. The Birmingham Six are serving life sentences for
IRA pub bombings carried out in 1974. The evidence saint the bed tinct ben tally discredited, but the 11 state has refused to release the men.