T HE SYRIAN dictatorship, both
twin and enemy to that of Iraq, is one of the oldest in the Arab region - Hafez al-Assad has maintained himself in power since 1970 through the suppression of democratic liberties, in the name of confrontation with the state of Israel. In the 1980s, a mounting social and economic crisis has combined with Syria's increasing isolation in a regional context dominated by imperialism (see /V 130, November 23, 1987).
This crisis is the product of the combination of a government austerity policy and the generalization of corruption in ruling circles, whilst the aid given to Syria by the oil-rich Arab countries has been reduced considerably owing to the decline in oil prices. Previously running at two million dollars a year, Arab aid was a factor essential to the stability of the Syrian regime. which is already making some sections of bourgeoisie squeal.
But the entry of the civilian population, of women and children, into the conflict between the state and the PKK brings the social dimension of the conflict back into the foreground and changes the nature of the problem. Bülent Ecevit * understood this very well when he declared: "we are facing a social explosion". • And the choice made by the government in favour of the traditional clan forces in the area can only deepen the social gulf and lead
In order to approach a solution, the supporters of self-reform must first of all bring down the ANAP government. Then they must find someone to negotiate with in the region. For even if the revolutionary and pro-independence forces are far from being in the majority, simple administrative measures will certainly not suffice to bring calm.
In reality, any reform will also need deep and, indeed, "revolutionary" changes both in the Kurdish regions and in Turkish politics as a whole. But what social forces can carry through such a "democratic revolution in the democratic revolution"? Let us not forget that all the big bourgeois parties, even the SHP rest on the traditional clan based forces in
Furthermore the (Islamic) Party of Well-Being (RP) has significant strength in the region.
These recent events and the guerilla war are taking place in the most backward part of Kurdistan, but the wave will certainly reach other Kurdish towns. It will no longer be possible to avoid the Kurdish national question. *
TURKEY / SYRIA
Since 1985, the annual inflation rate has been in the region of 30%, according to the official figures. The state's budget deficit has grown incessantly, as has the chronic shortage of certain basic necessities. The state sector, principal source of the legitimacy and enrichment of the bourgeois bureaucratic apparatus of the Ba'ath Party, has become progressively paralyzed According to the prime minister, "to be able to make the public sector function at 14% of its overall capacity in 1988 is an achievement"!
The struggle against the fundamentalist movement, which was supported by a part of the private sector, has been the occasion for a reinforcement and hardening of the regime, after the crushing defeat of the fundamentalists at the Hama massacre in February 1982.
Struggle between state and private Interests
But the struggle between different factions of the regime continued and deepened from 1984 onwards, in an internal struggle between private interests and the state sector. The latter has come out on top Meanwhile, the repression of every independent political or social movement has continued. Thousand of prisoners continue to rot in Syrian jails.
The difficulties of the Syrian intervention in Lebanon has contributed to the weakening of the Damascus regime. The concessions made by the leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to the United States have led to the isolation of Syria, the only Arab regime to oppose them. The end of the Iran-Iraq war has led to greater retrenchment by the Syrian dictatorship, which played a buffer role between Iran and the Arab countries of the Gulf. The restoration of relations between the majority of Arab countries and Egypt (expelled from the Arab League after the 1978 Camp David agreement with Israel) has aggravated still further this situation.
Damascus has remained outside the big regional political and economic structures — the Gulf Co-operation Council (created in 1981 with all the Gulf states), the Arab Co-operation Council (created in 1989, including Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and North Yemen) and finally the Union of the Arab Maghreb.
Since 1989, the isolation of the Syrian 1. The Ba'ath Party, the party of the "Arab socialist rebirth", is a party of petit bourgeois nationalist origin, founded half a century ago, of which rival factions are in power in Syria and Iraq.
2. 0146 34% of Sylan exports went to COME. 19
ON countries. May 7, 1990 • #184 International Viewpoint
SYRIA regime has entered a critical phase, following the fall of the bureaucratic dictatorships in Eastern Europe. These states were the principal allies of the Ba'athist regime, notably the USSR which has already begun to reduce its aid. Moscow has announced that it will demand that Syria repay its military debts, estimated at 18 billion dollars (96% of military imports into Syria come from the USSR), and has explained that relations between the two states must change in nature. The USSR seems then to have decided to abandon its traditional position of unconditional support for the Assad dictatorship. Moreover, Assad has postponed his planned visit to Moscow, initially scheduled for October 1989.
Changes in Algeria have impact in Syria
The changes in the other countries of the Arab region have also rattled Syria. The democratic freedoms wrested regime in Algeria, which bears similarities with that in Damascus, can only have worried Assad. In addition, Libya, a key ally of Syria's, has distanced itself by reestablishing relations with Egypt and the PLO leadership, and moderating its anti-imperialist rhetoric. The regime in South Yemen, also friendly to Syria, has itself changed course in accepting, in February 1990, the principle of multipartyism and the right to strike. Even the bloody Iraqi dictatorship introduced, albeit in a wholly caricatured form, a pretence of democracy. Jordan too has organized parliamentary elections.
The Syrian dictatorships thus finds itself increasingly in trouble. This is what led it,
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International Viewpoint #184 • May 7, 1990 on December 27 1989, to reestablish diplomatic relations with Egypt (previously characterized as a "traitor").
Another sign of the times is the process of conciliation which has begun with the PLO. Meetings have taken place in Tunis between the Syrian minister of foreign affairs and Yasser Arafat, after Damascus had appealed for the reconciliation of the different factions of the PLO. Damascus has also attempted to reconcile itself with the Iraqi regime, but the latter has posed conditions unacceptable to Syria. Finally and above all, Syria has turned itself today towards the West, and in particular
Inside the country, the pressure of a bourgeoisie deprived of the right to conduct its business without hindrance grows strong. Moreover, broader broader social layers (particularly the intelligentsia) express their unhappiness with repression and lack of democratic freedoms. The democratic mobilization led to the creation, on January 19 of this year, of Committees for the Defence of Human Rights which have had a certain impact amongst the intellectuals and in important popular sectors. These structures are neither an alliance of political parties, nor a mass organization, but they constitute a factor of pressure. Certain parties, which have suffered from fully fledged campaigns of liquidation in the past, have resumed their activities.
The discontent stretches even to those circles that are part of the pluralist facade of the regime, such as the National Progressive Front which comprises the ruling party, the pro-Moscow Communist Party and some nationalist groups. These partners of the Ba'athists now dare to criticize certain government economic and social measures in their publications. For the first time in years, the Syrian CP has dared to demand the release of political
In the course of a meeting of Syrian writers, held in Damascus last January, some intellectuals publicly demanded the release of the detainees, political liberties and freedom of expression for the opposi-
But the demonstrations of the families of political prisoners which took place at the end of 1989, one of them 200 women strong, have been the major element in the revival of the challenge to the regime. On March 19 of this year, 500 women, the mothers of political detainees imprisoned for years, went to the presidential palace to demand their liberation.
Under the pressure of the private bourgeoisie, on the one hand, and popular discontent, on the other, the regime was obliged to make a number of concessions, while not abandoning its policy of generalized repression. In February, it announced the abrogation of martial law, except for "crimes against state security". Some racketeers and bigshots of the black market have thus been freed.
A public debate has taken place on the possibility of selling or hiring a part of the public sector to foreign or Syrian private companies. Some abortive attempts in this direction already took place in 1987, but today the government seriously envisages making "agreements with Western enterprises, whereby the latter agree to import machines and equipment for the public sector in return for a share of the production of this sector for some years", according to the declaration of the prime minister on January 16 of this year. The dictatorship's concessions to the private sector are being made without fundamental political
Reactivation of People's Assembly
The bourgeoisie, for its part, would require free elections to ensure the success of its project - for the moment, the regime is categorically opposed to this.
But it has undertook to reactivate the "People's Assembly" (the parliament), whose sessions have been transmitted on television, and where some CP deputies have made timid criticisms of the government.
On February 6, for the first time, a foreign press correspondent was even been able to attend the parliamentary "debates".
The pace of change in Syria will be determined both by the relation of social forces and by the outcome of the conflicts unfolding in the ruling layers. Breaking the all enveloping silence abroad on the internal situation in Syria would also help to enlarge the breach that has opened up in the regime's walls. Solidarity with the detainees of the Syrian left opposition (totalling several hundreds, according to Amnesty International) could now really hasten their liberation. * 3. According to the Arab newspaper Al Hayal, published in London, "An official Soviet source has indicated, at the end of 1989, that the Syrian capacity to pay will be an important factor in military cooperation between the two countries in the future" (January 14, 1990). A commentary in Hebrew on Radio Moscow added "The Arab countries must cease to build a military power to confront Israel. They should seek to make peace with this country". 4. Syria harbors and supports the dissident factions of the PLO.
The Contras reawake