Gorbachev threatens the situation with a view to neutralizing him at a later date. Rather than directly confronting Aristide, the USA is trying to military crackdown control him, and, if this proves impossible, to wait for the population to be demoralized before acting. But none of these calculations take into account the "avalasse" (creole word for an "avalanche" of mud), the popular tidal wave, brought about by Aristide's campaign. It is this
AS WE GO TO PRESS, a Kremlin rape of Lithuania seems to which defeated the attempts at electoral be a growing possibility. The implicit threat by the chief of the fraud (see box) orchestrated on election day by the American embassy, aimed at
Stalinist bureaucracy, Gorbachev, to impose presidential rule ensuring at the very least that Aristide if the Lithuanian government fails to repeal laws he considers would not be elected on the first round.
to conflict with the Soviet constitution directly, contradicts the principles on which the Soviet Union was founded.
Majority of army remains
An open military attack aimed at crushing the democratic
Duvalierist rights and aspirations of the Lithuanian and other peoples
It was the popular "avalasse" also subjected to national oppression by the Stalinist bureaucratic which was the key to the failure of Lafontant's coup, since it dissuaded the army, state could mark a paroxysm of the crisis of bureaucratic rule.
the majority of which is still Duvalierist,
The apparently real threat of such an eventuality is a reminder from rallying behind the putsch. As soon that at some point, perhaps very soon, the breakdown of as the news of Lafontant's action was out, people poured into the streets of Port-aubureaucratic rule has either to go forward to a democratic
Prince and the provincial towns and selfrevolution or backward to terror.
defence began to be organized. It is also possible that, by blocking the road to the airport, the popular mobilization prevented the army from allowing Lafontant to leave the country.
The mass media have been emphasizing the role of the "loyalist" army in resolving the crisis. But they are forgetting that this very army has been protecting Lafontant since his return to the country in July
1990, refusing to arrest him, as ordered by the Justice Minister. At that time the the army, General Abraham, talked of a "judicial imbroglio". And the army has allowed Lafontant to construct a stronghold in Port-au-Prince where he was able to assemble heavy arms and prepare his putsch. It was this bunker that the population took with their bare hands on
Lafontant's attempt is a serious warning. It has once more been shown that all that is needed to seize the National Palace is a small group of armed men.
What might happen when Fr. Aristide is resident there? Clearly, he cannot entrust his safety to the army. Elected by the popular majority, he must be defended by them.
Thus the key task is the construction of an armed popular militia.
As president elect Aristide has made several declarations that will sow illusions, notably in the army, which is now trying to polish up its image to allow it to play a new political role in the future O
4 the other hand, the new president has als
GERRY FOLEY
Y SENDING military into the Baltic and other independence-minded the Kremlin has returned to confrontationist tactics against the mass movements opposing the authority of the bureaucratic state.
After a promise from General Moiseev that the already large military garrisons in the Baltic, especially in Latvia (where servicemen account for 15% of the population), would not be increased, the Gorbachev regime sent in troops, ostensibly to round up youths failing to report for military service. In fact, Moiseev himself (see below) joined with a group of notorious reactionaries to call for a general
This resort to press gangs was sweetened with a promise by deputy Soviet defense minister Vladislav Achalov that draft evaders and deserters would not be prosecuted and that they "will be able to do the rest of their military service on the the republic." The USSR defense minister, Dmitri Yazov, claimed that the roundups of youths refusing to serve in the armed forces would not involve bringing in extra troops, except in Lithuania.
Reportedly, Moiseev explicitly promised the Estonian premier, Edgar Savisaar, that he would not send paratroop reinforcements into Estonia. But the Kremlin has already gone back on a promise not to send more troops into any of the Baltic countries. Since its declaration of independence in March, Lithuania has remained in the forefront of the confrontation, and the Soviet operations there are likely to be the test.
Soviet military forces surrounded the Lithuanian parliament on January 9, although they withdrew the following day. At the same time, there was a mobili. zation by local Unionists demanding the imposition of direct rule by Gorbachev.
This scenario, similar to one staged in Estonia last spring, has created fears of a coup d'état. Already on December 21, the official Soviet news agency TASS had reported that Soviet troops were patrolling the streets of Klaipeda, Lithuania's major Baltic sea port, checking the papers of passers-by and arresting those who refused to cooperate.
Such Soviet military activity in Klaipeda is especially ominous. Since this city
January 21, 1991 • #198 International Viewpoint was taken from Germany and incorporated into Lithuania by the USSR, Kremlin officials have threatened that it would be taken away from Lithuania, if that country insists on independence.
Like the Estonian leadership at the time, Lithuanian president Landsbergis issued appeals to the population to defend the government. In this context, a governdeveloped in Lithuania, leading to the resignation of the premier, Kazimiera Prunskiene and her cabinet.
Formally, the government fell over the question of raising the prices of consumer goods. The rejection of this measure by the radical nationalists was presented in the international press as a concession to Communist party "hardliners" (whatever that might mean).
It is true that Pravda regularly criticizes the national-democratic governments for such measures, although the Soviet central authorities propose exactly the same thing, if not worse. But the aspect the capitalist press has missed, perhaps because it shares their attitudes, is that Prunskiene is the heroine of all the opportunists and capitulationists in Lithuania, as well as of the false friends of "freedom" in the West.
Failure of "moderate" strategy
She is the incarnation of "moderation," as opposed to the radicalism of Landsbergis and the intransigent wing of the Lithuanian nationalist movement, Sajudis. It was she who pressed for a moratorium on the Lithuanian declaration of independence to favor negotiations with Gorbachev. And she got a clear rebuff from the Soviet chief just before the fall of her government. Prunskiene was a Communist Party leader until quite recently, and so compromised by this association that her political future was threatened by poor electoral results.
She is presented as a realist by the independent Lithuanian CP and the free-
Respublika, Landsbergis is portrayed as a romantic. A similar picture has been given by the Western capitalist press. Thus, the suggestion in the capitalist press that it was nationalists of the likes of Landsbergis who threw poor Prunskiene to the Stalinist wolves is pretty peculiar.
correspondent Pierre Briançon seemed to express more honestly what the concern of ruling circles in the West actually is: "of course, the proindependence authorities seem to be giving the Kremlin every pretext. The political inexperience, the verbal bluffs and sometimes confusion displayed by the president and parliament in Vilnius many times, over nearly a year, have found a new illustration with the fall of the government of Kazimiera Prunskiene, guilty in the deputies' eyes of trying to refloat the economy with big price rises.
"The camp of the realistic proindependence forces has thus suffered a stinging defeat that could presage a serious worsening of the situation, if the 'ultras,' rather to Landsbergis, triumph com-
There is in fact a major contradiction between the aspirations of the national-democratic forces and their adherence to Gorbachev's market program. Any uncontrolled operation of the market, either the international market or the market in the would subject small nations to the domination of forces beyond their
Moreover, the "privatization of the nomenklatura" that has been underway for some time shows that the bureaucracy is quite able to use direct capitalist methods to preserve its position. In Lithuania itself, the which operates de facto as a stalking horse for the Kremlin, projects the idea that with a market nobody bureaucrats. (See "How to Fight the Nomenklatura,"| International Viewpoint, No. 195, November 26,
In Estonia, the national democratic milieu has already become divided over the perestroika economic program being applied by the government of the economist Edgar Savisaar. (See "Multiplying contradictions reflected in Soviet Press," in /V No 192, October 15, 1990).
Buildup of neo-Stalinist offensive
The most ominous thing present Kremlin crackdown is that there has been a long buildup to it. The Fourth Session of the Soviet Congress of People's Deputies was marked by a neo-Stalinist Unionist offensive and by an open shift of Gorbachev in that direction. In its meeting on December 15 to assess its position on the upcoming Congress session, the Unionist caucus, Soyuz, took a notably friendlier attitude to Gorbachev, in view of his offensive against the
Fifty three-Soviet officials and USSR Congress deputies called on Gorbachev to declare a state of emergency and rule by decree in areas where there were "big conflicts." They included the chief of the Soviet General Staff, Mikhail Moiseev; the Leningrad party chief, Boris Gidaspov; the laureate of neo-Stalinism, Jurii Bondarev; and the prince of the church, Aleksei II, patriarch of All the Russias.
The statement said: "We are being threatened by a fatal dictatorship of personalities, merciless in their aim of ruling over the territory, resources, intellectual wealth and labor force of the country
USSR
ITUANIE,
whose name is the USSR. We propose carrying out immediate measures against separatism, subversive anti-government flict, using the laws, the powers accorded to you and the determination of the government structures to carry out the will of the people and your will as president.... You will be supported by the leaders of world politics, who do not fear the USSR as a totalitarian superstate but do fear the splitting up of a colossus whose collapse will destabilize the world." issued by a sinister gang of generals and neo-Stalinist Mandarins, including "patriarch of all the Russias," corresponds to the breathtakingly hypocritical line of the bureaucracy (including the so-called independent republican CPs) that under perestroika the threat of dictatorship and even totalitarianism comes from the mass movements, in particular the national democratic ones.
Shevardnadze warns of dictatorship
In his unexpected speech of resignation as foreign minister during the Congress, Eduard Shevardnadze said: "A dictatorship is coming, I say this in all openness. No one knows what sort of a dictatorship it will be and who will be the dictator, and what sort of order there will be."
Most of his evocations dealt with neoStalinists growing more aggressive. The leader of the Soyuz caucus, Colonel Vikphrases sounds fall is Bals uster 5 phrases sounds like a typical Ulster
International Viewpoint #198 • January 21, 1991
USSR
Anglo-Irish military expressed joy at Shevardnadze's resigna-
As the same time as the Congress of
People's Deputies, the Latvian public prosecutor threatened to press charges against the Popular Front for evoking the
Soviet troops were not met. On December 17, small bombs went off near the offices of the
Latvian (pro-Moscow) CP, the military prosecutor's office and a monument to
A Latvian army officer said on TV that the bombings had been carried out by nationalists trying to provoke the army
"interfering in Latvia's internal
But Popular Front and Latvian government representatives said that the bombings had all the hallmarks of a campaign
"enemies of the Latvian people"
designed to prepare the climate for a
Soviet military crackdown.
On December 18, General Petr Chaus, commander of the Baltic military district, warned the local authorities against pushing the army "to extreme measures." In
November, the Latvian Supreme Soviet ordered the municipalities to stop providing supplies and social services to the
Soviet armed forces.
Armed force against elected governments
On the following day, the Latvian premier, Ivars Godmanis, warned publicly that Gorbachev might soon use the armed forces to depose the elected Baltic parlia ments and governments. Godmanis said he expected no support from the US or West Europe if the USSR used military force against the Baltic peoples.
The Soviet military is also unpopular in Latvia because its bases are highly pollut-
In December the state arbitration authority heavily fined the army forces for polluting the Baltic Sea with phosphorus. Moscow, moreover, has refused to allow the Latvians to close the Skoka Cellulose and Pulp plant, which is notorious for polluting the Daugava, the river that flows through Riga.
The confrontation in Lithuania was preceded by one in Latvia, where the Soviet military seized the main printing plant, on the grounds that it belonged to the pro-Moscow faction of the splintered Latvian CP. It is striking that in all these confrontations the flashpoints are the same as those in the crisis that followed the Lithuanian declaration of independence — control of so-called Communist Party property in reality state property to which the discredited and splintered CPs no longer have the slightest legitimate claim) and the question of forcing local young people to serve in the Soviet army. It is estimated, for example, that last spring in Armenia only between 7% and
8% of draftees actually turned up to serve. On December 18, the deputy chief of the Soviet general staff, Grigorii Krivosheev, said that the draft
"practically ignored in Armenia", and that only 25% of those eligible for the draft had been conscripted.
The Latvian parliament made another appeal on January 9 to draftees to reject forced conscription into the Soviet army.
At the same time, it called on the world and on the USSR supreme Soviet to stop the aggression of the Soviet minister of
" The Latvian Popular Front had already discussed the possibility of going underground in the event of a Soviet military crackdown.
Estonian call for civil disobedience
On December 18, by a vote of 51 to 15 with seven abstentions, the Estonian
Supreme Soviet passed a resolution calling for civil disobedience if the Kremlin used military force to suppress the democratic rights of the Estonian people. It said that if "the USSR...tries to obstruct the application of the Republic of Estonia's laws and state authority with the use of force, the first priority is the preservathe Estonian people. excludes the use of force as a means of
Radio Riga reported on December 17, that 1,002,829 people in Latvia had signed a petition opposing signature of
Gorbachev's new treaty of Union. The total population of 2,681,000, of whom 53.7% per cent are ethnically Latvian.
On December 21, 500 military officers met in Riga to form the Union of Servicemen in the Baltic. One of its leaders, Major Leonid Alyoshin, said that presidential rule should be instituted not only in Latvia. "It should be introduced all over the Soviet Union."
The appeal issued by this meeting said that if presidential rule proved ineffective, a state of emergency should be introduced throughout the declared that if the USSR Congress of People's Deputies failed to act to assure political stability, the army would have to adopt "all measures, including extraordinary ones, in order to protect the soldiers' rights and human dignity."
There is an extremely heavy concentration of military in Riga, the Latvian capital. This city is a major port, and it is also a favorite retirement haven for Soviet officers. Soviet military personnel have considerable weight in the population in both Latvia and Estonia, where the original nationalities have precarious majorities (In Estonia, Estonians make up 64.7% of the population). About a fourth of the pro-Moscow Latvian Communist Party is estimated to be Soviet military The increase of pressure by the Soviet
ESTONIA LATVIA •: Riga LITHUANIA @nounce
POLAND authorities in the Baltic follows a bureaucratic counteroffensive in Ukraine, marked in particular by the jailing of the
Ukrainian national democratic leader Stepan Khmara. The Soviet threats in the
Baltic have obliged Western governments at least to raise some formal protests about the violation of the rights of the
Baltic peoples. But very little has yet been said about Khmara. Nonetheless, it is the labor and left movement from which the least has been heard about these violations of human rights.
In the past, important campaigns have been mounted by left forces in the West to defend victims of political repression in the Soviet Union. It is ironic that there are so few now when the Gorbachev govemment is extremely vulnerable to international pressure.
Statements and policies that seem anti-
Communist should be less off-putting now than similar statements by victims of
Stalinist repression before. The politics of the mass national democratic movements are very confused, but a restoration of capitalism is in contradiction to their objective interests. This has already been shown in a number of ways (the speech by the Ukrainian leader Ivan Drach published in abridged form in International Viewpoint, No. 196, December 10, 1990, is a recent example.)
Solidarity of the oppressed nationalities
The Baltic fronts have shown an interest in support from all quarters, including the Western left and revolutionary nationalist movements. Under the pressure of the Kremlin threats, the national liberation movements in the USSR took a turn toward a perspective of solidarity among oppressed peoples during the crisis following the Lithuanian declaration of independence.
It is obvious that their perspectives will be affected by the sort of sympathy and support that they get. Now is the time for their true friends to make themselves known. *