Storms in the Indian
Ocean
ON THE fringe of the Gulf crisis, the southern Indian
Ocean is also experiencing upheavals. In this region - which contains countries such as South Africa,
Mozambique, Tanzania,
Madagascar, Mauritius,
Réunion, the Comoros and the Seychelles - the great world events of recent years have brought their quota of political, economic and diplomatic change.
The present evolution underlines moreover the
Importance today of regional settlements. The southern Indian Ocean is a region where the South
African question has had considerable importance.
The political changes
Inside the apartheld state, together with French ambitions and the after-effects of the Gulf
War, form the framework for a comprehensive reshuffling of the cards.
CLAUDE GABRIEL
HE great reform now underway in
South Africa is making it possible to rapidly remove all the obstacles to normal trade between the countries of the region and their big neighbor.
It is of no great interest to the former whether or not the internal negotiations in South Africa will really lead to the eradication of racial discrimination in
Now that the European Community has given the green light for the lifting of sanctions, all the region's regimes feel freed from the last taboos against trade 21
INDIAN OCEAN with South Africa. But more important still is the fact that the economic reforms undertaken by Pretoria, supported by the great powers, would necessitate a reorganization of South African capitalism to attract a new wave of foreign invest-
Thus the possibility for South Africa to play a central role in the circulation of capital throughout the region depends also to an extent on the political decisions and good will of the neighboring states. The economic crisis in most of these countries has in any case made the process more or less unstoppable. apartheid faith by the governments of the region, South Africa has long benefited from many forms of complicity and markets. But today the South African economy itself requires a qualitatively superior level of penetration of these markets, in order to create the commercial and financial outlets that must accompany the internal social and political reforms.
While South African industry has limited possibilities on the big European and
American markets due to lack of competitiveness, it can, on the other hand, benefit from regional trade, which is underpinned by the country's political dominance in the region, and involves low transport
However, while the region's goverments do not need to be urged to respond to Pretoria's covert advances, the extent of the economic disaster in some of these countries presents objective obstacles to increased trade.
The region's two biggest countries, the Malagasy Republic and Mozambique, are economically exhausted and their states near to collapse. The Comoros have been in turmoil over the past year and the Seychelles have also been unstable. Goodwill on both sides is not enough. There is a need for external, effective, credible and ambitious supervision.
It seems that it is France that is bidding for the role of ringmaster, although Portugal remains important in Mozambique, and there is also, of course, the United
France remains the dominant power in the Malagasy Republic and the Comoros, plays a decisive role in Mauritius, and, because of its colonies — Réunion and Mayotte — it is considered as having a border on the Indian Ocean! Thus there is a kind of Franco-South African joint venture at work on the regional market — complementing what is being prepared for the south of the African continent.
The Malagasy Republic
The "Great Island" is today a country destroyed by corruption, bureaucracy and 22 the incompetence of the so-called social- ist regime of Didier Ratsiraka. The formaInternational Viewpoint #204 • April 15, 1991 tion at the end of the 1970s of a national front bringing together all the country's political cliques has permitted a level of institutional stability.
But this front is nothing more in reality than a pact which allows each party to take its share of the rewards of administration. From the most "socialist" to the most liberal, each has contributed to the "Malagasy revolution" by putting their
In the end this happy compromise has come apart, leading to a new confrontation between a coalition regime and an opposition cartel, with a constitutional debate as the setting.
The protagonists remain the same but the rules of the game have been changed. The country's economy is bankrupt: Malagasy "socialism" has used and abused, for reasons of corruption, overblown industrial and agricultural projects.
The rural areas have been left to decay and in some regions there is famine. The regime, as with other similar regimes in Africa, maintained some ties to the West (above all France) while at the same time drawing on the good and loyal services of the Stalinist states. regime in Antananarivo found itself classified among the fraternal regimes with a
Now, an accelerated liberalization has given many of the country's political notables, starting with the Ratsiraka family, the opportunity to put the money salted away over the years to work.
Privatizations and joint ventures link them with French and South African interests, as well as with some Japanese interests that Paris hopes to associate in mining projects.
Mauritius - the Small Dragon
Barely a decade ago, Mauritius' main resource was sugar cane cultivation, with tourism some way behind. But then the sugar economy was forced to adapt to the exigencies of the world market and the country's socio-economic panorama was
At first sight, the successive governments, in receipt of good advice, have been able to weather the storm, with the rapid development of an industrial free trade zone and the offer of considerable privileges to foreign investors, starting with the French and the Hong Kong Chinese. The aim was to make of Mauritius a "small dragon", in the image of Taiwan or Singapore, in the southern Indian
There is only 3% unemployment in Mauritius, and industry provides some 25% of Gross National Product. The sug ar industry remains the main source of hard currency, but its share of GNP has fallen from over 30% in the 1960s to
11.3% today. There was 6.3% growth in 1990 with a per capita GNP of around
This transformation has taken place at of the traditional workers' movement which was rooted in the sugar industry. Social relations and the make up of the working class have been rapidly changed, leading to a psychological earthquake. The independent left organizations now face the difficult task of rebuilding class consciousness.
Free trade zones are subject to a special kind of deterioration - the reduction in unemployment and the lack of qualified labour creates a pressure towards rising wages. Some employers then go looking elsewhere for new comparative advantages, in this case in the Malagasy Republic, where wage costs remain lower. Other enterprises in Mauritius, on the other hand, look towards more sophisticated forms of production.
All this means that the island is seeing the birth of a new social formation, and is currently in a transitional period. Political life, which had been largely determined by communal and racial divisions (Hindus, Tamils, Créoles, Muslims, Whites, Chinese) is changing fast.
This change does not mean that this colonial heritage is simply behind, but the system is becoming more complex and new class interests are super-imposed on it.
### Mozambique
After more than ten years of war this country is in ruins. Agricultural production has not yet recovered to the level of the 1980s and the foreign debt is over
The effects of the war pursued by the South African-backed Renamo against the ruling Frelimo have been reinforced by the more specific effects of the regime's policies in areas as different as its relation with the rural masses, the functioning of the state, the establishment of mass organizations under party control and so on. Here, as elsewhere, a nationalist movement finding itself in power has attempted to build up a stable state and regime by copying Stalinist forms.
Today, Frelimo has abandoned "Marxism-Leninism" and is trying to combine negotiation with Renamo and liberalization of political and economic life.
The leading apparatus is splitting under the guise of establishing a multiparty system.
Here, too, internal reform also involves deeper regional integration, with the countries of the southern Indian Ocean on the one side and South Africa on the other.
The country has to be rebuilt and the total failure of the "Mozambican revolution" leaves no other way out than the
opening up of the country to imperialist and South African capital. There is no social force and no political leadership immediately available which could propose a way towards a real break under-development
Nazidja
• COMOROS
• Mayotte
(France)
INDIAN OCEAN
Agatoga ls.".
(Mauntlue)
Indian
With and dependence!.
South Africa - the
Trometim regional power (France)
These political and economic realignments come just at the right time to allow the South African economy to realize a part of the growth that it needs to underpin the constitutional reform pro-
The course of a few weeks has seen the opening of air routes with the Malagasy Republic and Kenya, the establishment of an official trade bureau in Mauritius, the announcement of projects in tourism in the Comoros and various investments in Mozambique.
The Tanzanian government (officially still in favour of sanctions against Pretoria) has signed an agreement with De Beers for the exploitation of diamond mines in the north of the country.
The Malagasy Republic's "revolutionary" and "socialist" president has even proposed that South Africa invited to the regional meetings. Here as elsewhere, tourism is a good means of getting into markets, since it involves a whole series of backup markets in the field of air transport and food importing. Thus the South African Karos group has invested in the renovation of a luxury hotel.
The Mozambican government is planning a series of joint ventures starting with the privatization of 31 enterprises. As in the Malagasy Republic the gobetweens in these operations are former political officials.
Finally, South Africa, having developed a hitech petro-chemical industry to ensure its independence in energy, is now in a position to become an exporter. The Comoros will get a South African loan to allow it to buy oil from the South African branches of Shell and Total.
The idea of exchanging Mauritian tea and sugar for South African crude, processed in the Malagasy Toamasina refinery, is also being seriously discussed. In exchange the Malagasy Republic will get the renovation of the refinery and a part of the processed oil.
Thus the movement is towards an increasingly integrated regional economy, where South Africa would act as the meeting ground for the southern Indian Ocean countries and those of southern Africa.
As far as the latter are concerned, in October 1990 the South African govern-
### Antenanarivo
MADAGASCAR ment has already refloated, through its foreign affairs minister, the idea "regional Marshall Plan".
The oddest feature of the situation is that South Alrica has already participated as an observer at a meeting of the South-
Development Coordination Conference (SADCC), which was originally set up to allow the countries of southern Africa to organize themselves independently of the South African econ-
Washington and of course Lisbon have been very active in this process. The Portuguese Socifa group has created a holding company for its specific operations aimed at its ex-colonies in Africa, while a new financial body, the Copor, has been set up to help Portuguese investors
France - an Indian Ocean
The main French possession region is Réunion Island, whose traditional colonial economic activity has also been sugarcane production.
In fact the country is on a drip feed, living off metropolitan subsidies. island's trade balance shows the state of more than 10 billion francs in imports and less than 1 billion
Réunion lives essentially from the income from public administration and social assistance. Nonetheless, the island has the virtue of making France a member of the Indian Ocean Commission (ICO) and allowing it to set up commercial and financial networks in the region. A part of Réunion's bourgeoisie invests in the Mauritian free trade zone, and the main air connections are ensured by
Ocean -Cargedoe Caratoe Maunhue)
MAURITIUS
Rodrigues • Port Lout
(Mountere Réunion O (France)
The structural dependence on aid, which allows among other things a relatively higher standard of living on Réunion than on the other islands, has had the effect of virtually wiping out any radical national consciousness. The demand for independence is supported only by a tiny minority.
However, social conflicts remain acute. Thus, at the end of February, when a pirate radio station was prohibited, there was something approaching an uprising of the island's youth from the poor quarters, lasting three days.
The good offices of Paris
A few months ago François Mitterrand visited the region. He made a number of speeches about democracy, multipartyism and regional cooperation. In March French Prime Minister Michel Rocard arrived to represent Réunion at the ICO. Thus Paris is very busy capitalizing on the new international and regional situation, thanks to its toehold in Réunion.2
It was thus no surprise to see the main opposition force in Mauritius, the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM), being hoisted into government alongside its main enemy of recent years, the Mauri1. Indeed, there is now talk of installing South African farmers on the rich lands around the Pequenos Libombos dam, 40 miles from the Mozambican capital, Maputo, and in the state of Matola, a few kilometers from the capital.
2. The French are pushing hard for the establishment of a Francophone university in the Indian Ocean. 3. In the 1970s the MMM was the main popular and anti-imperialist opposition. It came to power in 1982 and split a few months after. The faction that stayed in govemment formed the MSM, while the rest of the MMM became again the opposition. After eight years spent denouncing the regime, the MMM leadership wid the MS and in one in 9mmemake an aliance 23 with the MSM and join the govemment. April 15, 1991 • #204 International Viewpoint
----- photo credits and running heads -----
MOZAMBIQUE
Radical campaign challenges social sides.
corresponds to the requirements of Paris and the South Africans for political stability in Mauritius favouring the new democratic grip regional cooperation.
There are military implications as well;
French government in November the announced the stepping up of military aid to the Comoros and the Malagasy
THE car producer Volvo is the biggest company in Sweden. Its
Republic4 On December 1, 1990, a
Gothenburg factory is the largest in the whole of Scandinavia,
French officer became head of the army with 13,000 blue-collar workers. Over 90% of them are
— supposedly an indeof the Comoros pendent countryS members of the metalworkers union. At the end of February
However, none of this will change the the Social Democrats were challenged by a joint left fundamental facts of dependence. Quite opposition in the elections to the central leadership of the the opposite, given that the current develcompetition opments will increase between the islands and worsen the development inequalities. If it gets off the ground, the Malagasy free trade zone will constitute a threat to some branches of the Mauritian industrial zone. The
French have proposed to install farmers from Réunion and Mauritius in the Malagasy Republic, which will create a new social and national problem.
But there remains the old problem. It has always proved quite illusory to count on capitalist integration to create the conditions for a harmonious regional development. Investors get something out of it and the international institutions can pursue the rationalization of the markets.
But all this will resolve nothing as far development and dependence in that region are concerned. In fact, economic integration in this region will be accomgrowing French and South
African dominance.
In the face of such developments there is an urgent need for the various indepenand political movements to work together. The basis for this should be the political and economic changes and solidarity in the most internationalized industries (tourism, textiles, gar-
Such collaboration must have a radically anti-imperialist dimension, in favour of the solidarity of the peoples, for the departure of French and American military forces from the region and for total decolonization. *
4. This region remains of global strategic importance.
There are many Wester military bases, in particular the American base at Diego Garcia, an island claimed by Mauritius, and the US satellite observation station on La Misére in the Seychelles. This base, which is controlled by the National Security Agency, played an important role in the Gulf war. Finally there are the
French military bases on Réunion, Mayotte (in the
Comoros) and Djibouti.
5. For countries such as Mauritius and the Seychelles, tuna fishing contracts are, furthermore, another signifi-
24 cant link in the chain of dependence on the European
Community countries, and thus in part on France.
International Viewpoint #204 • April 15, 1991 union. DICK FORSLUND
T HIS was an event which received