From dictatorship to was strictly necessary in the short term. The best proof of this is without doubt furnished by the return of the right to government, from 1986 to 1988. If the right had meant what they said about the ravages worked by the left, one might have expected a 180° turn in economic policy. In fact the only significant change was the reprivatization of some of the industries and
FRANCE / SOMALIA
FOR the past three years, Somalia has been in the grip of a the banks which had been nationalized by brutal civil war which has received even less media coverage the Socialists. This process was not fully carried through because of the financial than the events in Liberia. At the end of 1990, probably as a crash of October 1987, but it demonstratresult of the Gulf crisis, the situation took a further turn - a ed that the idea of nationalization had turn that has been almost totally Ignored become an empty shell.
At the beginning of this year, the battle of Mogadishu, which
Going further than the right claimed several thousand victims In a town now empty of foreigners, ended in the fall of the dictator Siyad Barre. Since
Mitterrand campaigned in 1988 around the idea of "ni-ni" (neither privatizations then the various opposition factions have set upon one nor new nationalizations) but his governanother: "tribal anarchy has thus become a reality in one of ment quickly accomplished what their the few African countries united in culture and language."
right wing predecessors had not done, namely the dismantling of the status of the
Renault car company and the post office.
A little while ago, the participation of private capital in public enterprises were authorized. In any case it is a long time since anything distinguished the orientations of management or the mode of work organization in public and private enterprises. An examination of all the important economic trends reveals that the right's return to power made no particular
The accompanying wages curve graphic shows the record of the reformist left in power. It shows how the two generalized recessions, and above all the first, led to a growth of the share of wages in percentage of value added. In
1976 the Barre plan was implemented which succeeded in lowering this share a little, only for it to rise anew with the second recession. The arrival of the left in power was reflected by a moderate rise, soon followed by a dizzying fall which, ironically, was interrupted only with the arrival of the right in power.
But, amongst all the setbacks, the worst is without doubt the pure and simple alignment with the values of capitalism, as summed up in the formula of Bérégovoy in the daily newspaper Les Echos on
May 6, 1991: "France has reconciled itself to business and the Socialists have helped it". The left has not been content with betraying a programme, it has destroyed a hope. Just as Stalinism cast its shadow on the perspective of the construction of a socialist society, the experience of the PS and the PCF in government has for a long time discredited any project of social transformation. The essential references of the French left (nationalization, planning, self-management) are now discredited. France is distinguished today by a particularly deep crisis of trade unionism, and by the rise of the far right. It will take some time to wipe away the impact of this balance sheet in the social imagination, and rebuild a genuine project of social
SAMAALE
HE colonial carve-up at the end of Somali territory between areas of Italian, British and French control. These three European states scrambled to occupy the shores of the Red Sea and Indian Ocean when this zone began to be considered strategic, after the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869. In the same period, the Ogaden came under the control of Ethiopia, an ancient Christian state whose expansionist policies were openly supported by the two main colonial powers, Britain and France.
Resistance to this was fierce, and a sheikh from the northern Darod clan, Mohammed Abdillé Hassan, nicknamed "the Mad Mullah" by the British, organized a guerilla movement which was active from 1899 to 1920. Its main enemy was the British, but the Ethiopians and Italians also wanted to crush this rebelSomali national identity born
The coalition of northern Somali tribes was fragile and conflicts of interest between the different clans could lead to violent clashes. Nonetheless, the Mullah's personality and his talents as a poet helped give birth to the idea of a Somali national identity going beyond the present frontiers of the Somali Republic.?
Italy, a second-rate colonial power, had expansionist designs in this region. Forty years after the crushing defeat inflicted on Italy by the Ethiopians at Adoua in 1896, Mussolini's empire took control of Ethiopia after a particularly cruel campaign involving the use of gas on a massive scale. This barbarous aggression enjoyed the evident complicity of the British, who wanted to see the dictator's appetites sated by this colonial morsel.
At the beginning of the Second World War, after an ephemeral occupation of British Somaliland, Italy's east African empire, which comprised Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia, was unable to withstand the British counter-offensive. For ten years after 1941, Somalia was administered by the British, who encouraged the panSomali visions of a section of the local elite. This was the first appearance of a very vigorous nationalist tradition, which set up Mohammed Abdillé Hassan as the first hero of Somali independence. Irredentism a feature of new
After independence in 1960, irredentism on the part of the authorities in Mogadishu was one of the main political characteristics of the young state, which was made up of a union between Somalia, which had become independent after ten years of Italian trusteeship under UN auspices, and the former Somaliland, which became independent at the same time. The five branches of the star on the Somali flag symbolize Greater Somalia, including Djibouti, still a French colony, the Ogaden, once again under Ethiopian control, and northern Kenya. Since 1964, Somalia has been engaged in a border dispute with Ethiopia along the provisional demarcation line drawn by the British in 1950. Following the failure to negotiate a real frontier, armed clashes developed and each of the two belligerents has supported guerilla movements on the other side of the border. 1. S. Smith, Liberation, August 4, 1989. 2. P. Rondot, "Quelques remarques sur le personnage et le rôle historique de Mohammed Abdille Hassan", in Pount, Bulletin de la Société d'Etudes d'Afrique Orientale, no. 8, 1970, pp. 7-14. May 27, 1991 • #207 International Viewpoint
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anarchy
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9
One country, six confederations
THE population of Somalia is 95% Somali, the latter group being divided into 6 tribal confederations of differing sizes.
1. The Dir are based around the frontier with Djibouti and Ethiopia (the Jijiga region), and are composed of two antagonistic
SOMALIA
Following the assassination of president Shemarke (probably owing to differences of tribal origin) the army took power on October 21, 1969, and Siyad Barre, president of the supreme revolutionary council, tribes; the Issa and the Gadaboursi.
The military took power from civilians
2. The Isxaaq, one of the bigger tribal confederations, more than accused of having no support outside of a a million strong, occupy roughly the territory covered by the old tiny urban clientele. The new regime pro-
British Somaliland. The members of this tribe are very active in claimed its intention to combat tribalism, trade and are supported by a diaspora of numerous immigrant illiteracy. It nepotism, corruption workers in the Gulf countries and the former imperial power.
adopted policies more attuned to the inter-
3. The Daarood, numerically the most important group, are ests of the rural population, linked up with implanted in the north east (Majerteenia), the major part of the the Soviet Union and affected a resolutely
Ethiopian province of Ogaden and, in the south, along the Kenyan socialist political line.
frontier. The Marehan clan, to which ex-President Siyad Barre
Moscow despatched some 6,000 civilbelongs, is part of this federation.
ian and military advisers to the country
4. The Hawiyya, based in the centre of the country and Mogadiand established an important naval base at shu, the capital being the fiefdom of the powerful Hawiyya clan,
Berbera on the banks of the Gulf of Aden.
the Abgal.
China also had a presence, but this was
5/6. The Rahanwiin and the Digil, established in the most fertile limited to projects for the civilian infrazones of the country, along the Schebelle and Juba rivers. These structure, notably the two tribes are the only ones to devote themselves to agriculture.
building of a road between Mogadishu
They are often designated under the name of Sab, which attests to their Bantu ancestry. Because of their origin and way of life, they are not always considered as true Somalis. *
Initial successes for regime
At first, the regime scored some successes, with the establishment of a written
Somali using the Latin alphabet and a huge literacy programme. In 1974 Somalwhich opened the way for substantial aid
However Siyad Barre also pursued a very aggressive nationalist programme.
From the end of 1976, he gave military support to the Ogaden Liberation Front.
A few months later, the Somali army's aggression, at a time when the new regime in Addis Ababa was confronted offensives by the Eritrean and Tigrean liberation movements, led to a turnaround by the Soviet Union, which gave massive support to Ethiopia, providing that coun try with the military advisers and arms that enabled it to push the Somalis back.
The 1978 defeat in Ogaden forced the
Somalis to return to internal affairs, and
'clan politics' was not long in reappearing. At the same time Somalia was forced to renew links with the Western powers.
The Americans took over the "lease" on the Berbera base in exchange for economic and military aid.
But this was not abundant and the country's main foreign resource consists in the massive food aid to the Ogadeni refugees supplied over the past 12 years. In fact, authorities have claimed more refugees than any of the studies undertaken have been able to find.
Over the past decade, the head of state and his entourage successfully exploited the divisions in the opposition. The defence of the regime was based on a pretorian guard (the Red Berets) and security services mainly recruited from the presidential clan, the Marehan, who make up
10 no more than 2% of the population of some six million.
International Viewpoint #207 • May 27, 1991
In the leading spheres, political manoeuvres and fear of a coup led Barre to increasing reliance on family members. Every promotion or nomination in the state apparatus has tended to push the Isxaaq and Hawiyya, the two main groups involved in the country's business activity, further out of the political picture.
Besides these political consequences, the increasing nepotism allowed the president's entourage to help themselves to a large share of the country's meagre resources, not to speak of the foreign aid. The former ambassador of Somalia's permanent commission to the Geneva-based international organizations has accused of selling for her own profit a cargo of rice worth several million dollars designated for famine relief. Aid ends up in Swiss banks
The new government has also taken steps to regain some $100m deposited in Swiss banks. This pile includes notably a Saudi gift of $70m to Siyad Barre's govemment last December - the price for Mogadishu's anti-Iraqi stance during the
After the settlement of the Ogaden conflict through the signing of an agreement between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu on April 4, 1988, fighting became concentrated in the north, against the Isxaaqdominated Somali National Movement (SNM), the Isxaaqs being the main Somali people in what was formerly Somaliland. The fighting was fierce and Siyad Barre's army did not shrink from bombing and destroying the former capital of Somaliland, Hargeisa, controlled for a few days by SNM forces.
In 1990, when the Abal clan of the
Hawiyya people, who make up the majority of Mogadishu's population, themselves took up arms against the government, the crisis reached its paroxysm. After months of intense fighting, on January 27, 1991, the forces of the United Council of Somalia (UCS - Hawiyya) chased Siyad Barre from the capital.
However the victory of the opposition movements has not brought an end to the fighting, since the different opposition factions have not been able to reach agree-
The legitimacy of the provisional president, Ali Mahdi Mohammed, was at once challenged. The SNM boycotted the conference of national reconciliation, which was postponed to the end of April. In the north, there are to be regional consultations in order to engage in a preliminary re-discussion of the 1960 reunification act. While secession is a real possibility, there are many voices to be heard on the international level insisting on the need for federal solutions in the Horn of Africa.
In the power vacuum, particularisms have resurged, blending in with the clan divisions. Since the departure of Siyad Barre, Mogadishu has been divided into rival sectors, although the UCS retains the upper hand in the capital.
### Clan rivalries emerge throughout country
Throughout the country similar situations are taking on worrying proportions. On the frontier with Djibouti, the Issa have taken their distance from the SNM to set up the United Somali Front, (USF) 3. Le Courrier de Genève, March 13, 1991. 4. C. Simon, Le Monde, August 6-7, 1989. 5. J. Hélène, Le Monde, December 27, 1990.
Gross National Product (GNP) per Inhabitant; $170. Somalia's foreign debt is 52bn, almost twice the GNP of the country. * with the aim of counter-balancing Isaaq ambitions in the north of the country, at the same time adopting a strategy of confrontation with the Gadaboursi. These calculations seem to have been thwarted by the rallying of Gadaboursi elements to the SNM.
Among the latter, faithful allies of the ousted president have fled the Boroma region in the direction of camps on the regrouped under the banner of the Somali Democratic Alliance (SDA).
In former Somalia, besides the Hawiyya in the CSU, which has already experienced internal divisions, the Democratic Front for the Salvation of Somali, based on the Majeerteenia clan of the Daarood people - the first movement historically to oppose Siyad Barre's regime - has arisen from the ashes.
The southern Daarood, for their part nave regrouped in the Somali Popula Movement (SPM), the backbone of this being former Ogadeni army personnel led by Colonel Omar Jess.
Finally, supporters of former president Siyad Barre himself are not finished, especially since, given the warrior traditions of the Somalis, the Marehan clan will only survive the fall of its chief with difficulty.
danger of physical elimination strongly contributes to the cohesion of the
Having taken refuge in Gedo, the region of his birth, the president is protected by a small army of armed followers. Nor has he lost the ability to develop a new web of
Rival factions within opposition movements
Rival factions are proliferating inside the two big opposition movements. There are divergences inside the SNM between secessionists and moderates, without taking into account the Issa's attempt to contain businesses, or simply for the purposes of banditry.
This phenomenon is especially marked in the capital, to the point where the prevailing anarchy prevents humanitarian organizations from working, with the exception of SOS Villages Swiss non-governmental organization — and the French Médecins sans frontières, which manages to keep two hospitals going in the capital.
Somalia, which belongs to the group of least developed countries, must now deal with the handicap of the recent destruction. In Mogadishu alone, a large part of the infrastructure has been destroyed and the town was pillaged for several weeks. All enterprises and administrative offices are shut and qualified personnel have
Furthermore, the country has been totally marginalized internationally, and thus, given that aid is usually linked to some sort of political and economic interest, it is very unlikely that there will an influx of material and financial support. The extent of Somalia's marginalization is illustrated by the total evacuation of the US base at Berbera in November 1990, despite its proximity to the operational theater of US forces in the Gulf.
### Conflict accentuates economic distortions
Already hard hit by the periodic droughts which have struck the country in the course of the last two decades, the dislocation of the economy and movements of population have been accentuatconsequences for all the people, whether
Exports of cattle, the primary source of foreign currency income, which had
SOMALIA already fallen following a cattle plague in 1983, are at break even point since 1988.
Exports of bananas to Italy in the framework of the Lomé accords linking the ACP (African, Caribbean, Pacific) coun tries to the EEC have already fallen and should fall further given the devastation wreaked in the plantations.
Some plantations were still in the hands of Italian planters who have all left the country. Moreover, all the development projects undertaken have been stopped, the foreign personnel of the big aid and development agencies, UN personnel in particular, having been evacuated a little before the battle of Mogadishu.
A cemetery of foreign aid
Aid from Saudi Arabia and Libya was not enough to save the regime of Siyad Barre. In a country known as a "cemetery of foreign aid", the new authorities will face great difficulties in obtaining diplomatic recognition whilst famine menaces the country.
The Gulf War has led to the virtual dry ing up of the aid furnished by Somalia's principal backers (the EEC, the United States and the Arab countries) and of the remittances linked to the financial transfers of Somalis in Kuwait and Iraq, estimated at $300m a year.
Some three hundred Somalis have recently been expelled from Saudi Arabia. This phenomenon has helped to dry up the flood of imports of manufactured goods paid for in foreign currency with funds collected by the immigrant workers.
Their families in Somalia, who were remunerated in Somali shillings as a consequence of these commercial operations, face grave difficulties today. * trol the Djibouti frontier with its own A pastoral country
THE Republic of Somalia was created in July 1960 out of the
In the CSU it is worth mentioning the union of two former colonies, British Somaliland and the Italian split of a group led by general Farah Hai- Trusteeship Territory of Somalla. It covers an area of 638,000 deed, the "unlucky candidate" against kilometers and has around 6 million inhabitants (the annual rate of president Ali Mahdi Mohamed. Ethiopia, population growth is 3%). Today half of the population, which is which remains wary of its neighbour's 95% Somall, live as nomadic herders. Mogadishu, the capital, has designs on the Ogaden, is making no around half a million inhabitants, the port of Kismayo about secret of its sympathies for the secession- 70,000, whilst the towns of Berbera and Hargeisa each have ists of the SNM in the north and the parti- between 60 and 70,000 inhabitants (they have been for the most sans of Farah Haideed in the coastal zone part deserted since the fighting of 1988). With few natural resourc (the Benaadir) around the capital. es, Somalia is an essentially pastoral country. Livestock: sheep
In the medium term the issue is to gain and goats; 33 million; cattle and camels; 12 million. control of the main flows of money com- Structure of production; agriculture represents 65% of GDP, sering from trade in the north and from Mog- vices 25% and the manufacturing sector 10%. adishu. Commercial and financial Income from exports was at $60 million in1988, largely made up transactions are subject to all kinds of of beef on the hoot (67%), and bananas, of which the production rake-offs — taxes, payment for hypotheti- rose in 1988 to 120,000 tonnes (22.6%). The remaining 10.4% came cal services, not to speak of straightfor- from leather, skins, furs and fish (product of fishing 17,000 tonnes ward racketeering.
The picture would not be complete without mentioning the proliferating groups tied to this or that clan and local interests or formed with the aim of protecting cer-
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11 May 27, 1991 • #207 International Viewpoint