EASTERN EUROPE / CZECHO-SLOVAKIA
International Viewpoint #212 • September 16, 1991 the new opening in Eastern Europe.
It is very difficult to make predictions about future capital flows from the West, but some general points are clear. First of all, the lion's share of Western investment will now go to the former GDR; it is likely to receive substantially more than all the rest of Eastern Europe put together over the next ten years. One study by the Washington based Institute for International Economics offers three estimates of capital flows, a pessimistic scenario, an optimistic scenario and a middle variant.
The authors consider that even the most optimistic scenario will leave Eastern Europe far behind the West in ratios of capital per worker after a decade.
In the meantime, East European governments have been seeking to involve Western capital through joint ventures and through the direct sale of state industries. There has been a substantial rise in the numbers of joint ventures since 1989. The most remarkable breakthrough has been in Hungary, where the number of joint ventures rose from only 1,000 at the start of 1990 to 5,000 at the end of the year. There has also been a noticeable increase in interest on the part of US companies in the USSR. The figures for joint ventures are given in table 3.
Joint ventures have little impact
But it is impossible to assess the significance of these totals, above all because many, in fact most, registered joint ventures are not, in fact, operational. The proportion in operation has risen from 25% at the start of 1989 to 42% by the end of 1990. But despite this growth, it seems that such joint ventures will not have a major macro-economic impact on any of these countries for some years.
Those attempting to lead the countries of Eastern Europe down the road of a rapid transition to capitalism are now under enormous social and political pressure in both Poland and Hungary as the social crisis and public disillusionment spreads. The social and political situation is perhaps less volatile in Czecho-Slovakia, but there is even more tension throughout the
Awareness of this increasingly critical situation is probably most intense within the European Commission. Its external searching for ways of holding the line in Eastern Europe, especially by offering a more definite political perspective of eventual integration into the EC. But throughout the first half of 1991 the EC's Council of Ministers refused to give the three northern tier countries what they asked for: a definite commitment to their eventual membership.
The furthest that the Council would go 24 alone praion to agrimens 10 as to in the Association negotiations was to to accession as an ultimate, though not an automatic, objective for the three contries. And conditions would have to be clearly spelt out: political (multi-party democracy, human rights) and economic (market economy) conditions will be in the preamble and the association council established will check that they are stuck
The External Relations Commissioner has indicated a distinction between Czecho-Slovakia and Poland, saying that full Polish membership will not be possible "before the end of the decade at least" while hoping Czecho-Slovakia might become a full member before the end of
Faced with the Council's intransigence, Andriessen has floated the notion of a so-called "Affiliate Membership", raising this possibility in April 1991, apparently off his own bat.33 He suggested modifying the Treaty of Rome to allow this status; it would involve the rights and obligations of membership in some fields but not in others during a period of transiThe promise of affiliate status
The affiliate would have a place at the Council of Ministers on an equal footing and adequate representation in other institutions such as the European Parliament. Such affiliates could rapidly take part in two fields; political cooperation and monetary affairs; they would gradually extend their participation to other fields such as transport, energy, environment, research, according to a case by case procedure.
In subsequent talks with Bulgarian Prime Minister Popov, Andriessen said would fit Bulgaria perfectly. 34
It seems that the German and Dutch governments have now also accepted the need to offer at least some of the East European states a definite commitment to eventual membership. The Dutch Foreign Minister, Hans van der Broek, has called for the East European states to be offered the perspective of joining the EC by the
It is hard to imagine, however, that such a political commitment from the EC will be enough to reverse the trends towards political disintegration and social unrest in most of eastern Europe. It is more likely that the course upon which the Western countries have pushed the new regimes in caster Europe will generate powerful political backlashes, whether of the right (pro-capitalist populist authoritarian forces) or of the left. Tensions are rising in Eastern Europe by the month. * 31. Ibid, April 22, 1991, p. 7. 32. Ibid, March 11, 1991. 33. In a speech before the Eurochambers of Commerce Assembly. See report in Europe, April 20, 1991, p. 12. 34. Ibid, April 29, 1991. 35. Ibid, March 11, 1991, p. 4.
"Society
feels
free"
TWENTY months after the
Velvet revolution of
November 1989, the big decisions on the future of
Czecho-Slovakia's economy remain to be taken. International
Viewpoint spoke to Petr
Uhl, a long-time human rights' activist and revolutionary Marxist, now head of the Czecho-Slovak state news agency, and former Charter 77 activist,
Ana Sabatova, who works for the Czech soclal welfare ministry about the political atmosphere preceding the great economic changes.
The Interview was conducted on August 28 In
Paris by Colin Meade. HAT has changed in the "Velvet revolution" of November 1989?
Petr Uhl: There has been a major change on the political level, broadly understood. Every member of Czech and Slovak society has gained a certain number of democratic rights, which might appear of marginal importance to outsiders but are very important for us. The right to travel, to read and listen to what we want, and above all to say and express what we want. There is freedom to demonstrate and hundreds of associations have been created and function. There are political organizations but also social associations — for example of disabled people or Gypsies who had no organizations before, apart from a brief renaissance in 1968. It is possible for people to formulate their collective and individual interests and it was not before. These democratic rights are legally guaranteed. Society feels free.
There is a negative side of course, with
September 16, 1991 • #212 International Viewpoint the rise of nationalism and the xenophobic and racist far right, which also has freedom of expression, but even here there are laws which forbid the expression of xenophobia and racism beyond a certain limit.
The political system that is slowly being created more or less resembles that in Western Europe — a parliamentary system. But there are still many survivals from the velvet revolution, which was not a revolution by political parties and which envisaged a democracy founded on civic initiatives where the citizens would come together in the short or the long term to pursue their ends.
Of course, political parties would be permitted. Now parties have formed and are becoming stronger; they look to the forthcoming elections in June 1992 as the culmination of this process. They hope to form coalition governments that will rule for the four subsequent years.
However the main political forces in the country remain movements rather than parties; for example the Civic Forum (OF), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) in Slovakia or the regionalist movement in Moravia.
On the social level, people are preoccupied with their individual concerns. Industrial production has dropped by 30% over the past year, but there is no sign of a revolt against this — there have been no protest demonstrations or strikes. The fall in industrial production is partly due to the run down of the military industries.
The drop in living standards mainly affects wage earners. On the other hand there are the new entrepreneurs, who are often using money that they have effectively stolen in the form of Communist Party property, or people who have talk about and criticize the "economic
The big enterprises have not yet been privatized. There is a law envisaging several methods of privatization, such as joint stock companies involving the
However until now it is such things as services, garages, restaurants or transport that have been privatized. There is also of course production and economic activity which escape the statistics, due largely to a lack of legal mechanisms for taxation and control.
Nobody knows what will happen when the de-statization really gets underway.
• And social services?
Ana Sabatova: They have on the whole changed for the better since the end of the dictatorship. Gaping holes in the social services - such as for example for the rehabilitation and social reinsertion of the disabled - have been filled. On the other hand, the creation of a labour market means that a growing number of disabled people have lost their jobs despite the law, which calls on employment agencies to give all possible support to the disabled.
La governmental commission which is looking at ways to change the law in favour of the disabled. I work above all for the disabled in the Ministry.
Petr Uhl: The problems not only of the disabled but also of pensioners and other marginalized groups have finally been brought into the open and discussed. The previously considered unsightly and hidden away.
There are also changes in education, which is becoming less authoritarian. Comparisons with education in the West were always uncomfortable for us. Here there were things that were obligatory and things that were forbidden and that was
This was as true for the teachers as the pupils. People were not educated to be independent. Teachers now have more and liberty in what they
• Do the social and public services face big financial problems?
Ana Sabatova: In our ministry the minister has been putting pressure on officials to spend more and create jobs. We ended under-spending. Money is directed towards the sectors that seem the weakest. There is no inflation at the moment.
In fact prices were lower in July than June this year, for the first time since the revolution. Purchasing power has also fallen, of course.
• Does the political system work? If laws are passed, are they imple-
Petr Uhl: On the whole yes. However, in the new business sector laws are often avoided when they exist at all. It takes between three and six months to get a new law into action. The country is not run by decree!
Various bodies can propose a law — a deputy, the Federal Government, Czech and Slovak governments and the President. Then there is an inquiry, then there are the parliamentary committees, and then back to the parliament for discussing, amendment and vote.
Political laws and the penal code are more or less respected. However in some cases the courts drag their feet, especially where rehabilitations are concerned, whether from overwork or because many prosecutors were involved in the former regime. Constant pressure from above and from the public is needed.
Ana Sabatova: It is very difficult to control a situation where everything is changing. Imagine a centre for social security using old technical methods. Here it is necessary to recalculate all the pensions and allowances for the Czech Republic every six months.
Every time a pensioner is rehabilated they are offered two forms of recompense. Announcements have been put in the press apologizing for delays because there are simply insufficient resources to
CZECHO-SLOVAKIA keep up. There are big practical and material problems, but it is by no means anarchy.
• What is Havel's role in political life?
Petr Uhl: Czechoslovakia does not have a presidential system. Nonetheless Havel interferes too much. Each week he makes a speech on the radio giving his views on various topics, and given his enormous moral authority this influences political life.
This also means that his popularity is dropping, because he does not remain above the battle. He doesn't say explicitly who he supports, but his views are clear. However each time he has tried to increase his formal power, the parliament has refused.
example on the referendum law Havel wanted a variant that would give him more power, but this was rejected. It is the parliament that decides. It is more like Germany, Austria or Italy than France or the United States.
Havel is more favourable to the [centre] Civic Movement than to Klaus' Party of Civic Democracy [centre-right).
• In the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin celebrated his victory after the failed coup by suspending the activities of the Russian Communist Party, seizing its property and closing several newspapers.
Has there been an anti-communist wave in Czecho-Slovakia? How do you feel about the issues of justice and revenge in relation to former and present members of the Communist Party and supporters of the old regime?
Ana Sabatova: There were a number of attacks by sections of the population calling for the Communist Party to be out-
Petr Uhl: And to define the Communist ideology as criminal. The Federal Assembly refused to pass a law relating to the previous 40 years, but it issued a statement denouncing the Communist ideology as criminal and discredited. There have been a number of conflicts on this issue in the parliament, but the right is not strong enough to introduce laws contradicting human rights.
We have mainly relied on the argument that such laws would be contrary to European standards of human rights, the Charter of Basic Rights and Freedoms, and everybody wants to be a part of Europe. Neither right nor left has been able to pass the kind of laws on this subject that they
Of course you can hear people saying: "there are three kinds of Communist: the present-day Communists, a lamentable fact but they represent 15% of the population, they are in parliament and it is a constitutional and parliamentary party. "Then there are the Communists of yes-
International Viewpoint #212 • September 16, 1991
CZECHO-SLOVAKIA
But I voted against the notion that even in such cases the property should be given back to the brother for example. It should apply only to the individual and afterwards his or her children, but no more.
Ana Sabatova: The right to property was given to too large a spectrum. Members of collective farms have always had the legal right to return to their land. Only a small proportion of the land was confiscated outright — most farmers were pressurized into the collectives in various ways, but it is the collectives not the state that owned
TO BY MOH PÍCT KAIDEN, TE JE STAREU, OPUTTENES LEViCONES INTELKTUÁL.
Caption: "Anyone can claim to be an old, destitute leftist. Show me your identity terday who handed in their party cards just an open letter to the president of the com-
Petr Uhl: Attempts to right old wrongs in this sphere lead to new ones. Thus it is very difficult to decide. There are three social groups involved: those who are not affected, those who are pursuing claims — which is not always easy - and those who will be adversely affected by such after November and who are more danger- mission, Vaclav Zak, in which I pointed ous having changed their hat; but the most dangerous are the Communists of the day before yesterday, that is the 1968ers. They are still caught up in the reform communist ideology and continue to seek a third way between Socialism and capitalism."
There are many people of the third catethe government and parliament and this is a source of tension.
We are still awaiting the new law on the investigations of the secret police files -the question of "lustrace".
What is involved is a Berufsverbot law which might mean that certain people who had held certain functions in the CP would be put outside the law for a period of perhaps four years and be unable to take up certain jobs; or it might say that someone who had worked for the secret police and had harmed somebody cannot take up definite posts in the state, and if they stand in elections, the electorate will have the right
These are two different conceptions — individual or collective responsibility. The latter is reflected by the proposal to publish the names of everyone who worked for the secret police in a sort of telephone book. This latter proposal however I do
The Kavan affair' also had an impact on thinking on this question in parliament.
Ana Sabatova: The Czech National Council [the Czech government] set up a commission to control personnel changes in the state. It drew up a questionnaire appointed by ministers - section heads,
The questionnaire included the questions "What political parties have you been in and when?" "Have you been a member of any social organization, during which period and which one did you belong to?" "When were you abroad and where?" — that is, have you spent time in the Soviet Union?
This questionnaire arrived in our minis• try together with a letter instructing all the emplovees concerned to fill it in. I wrote out the relevant sections of the labour law and the Charter of Human Rights that were broken by the questionnaire.
One of the dangers that the questionnaire presented was that it would permit agencies outside the ministry to put pressure on the minister to sack employees. This open letter was only published by Rudé Právo (the former Communist Party paper) and Ceteka (the official press agency). But the commission dropped its illegal questions.
Petr Uhl: My conclusion is that protest against an injustice can achieve its goal here! These seem like small things but they are very important. The revolution did not take place because the economy was collapsing - the Czechoslovak economy was not collapsing - but for democratic rights for individuals. And this must mean all individuals, not just the victors. There should be laws which protect human rights should be applied; nothing else.
Ana Sabatova: Some people are not happy with this situation and revenge, but this is unacceptable.
• There is also the question of the restitution of property seized after 1948. What is right?
Ana Sabatova: It doesn't exist as far as this question is concerned. I do not think that property should be handed back. I know that many people suffered injustice during the 1950s, above all small owners, but nonetheless after 40 years it is not possible to make amends by handing
This simply implies new conflicts with social interests, for sphere of education or medical care. The law has set a delay of ten years in such cases, but eventually the ten years will be up and the issue will have to be decided.
Petr Uhl: I supported limited restitution, above all for people whose small properties — restaurants, shops, homes — had been confiscated and who had furthermore often been sent to prison.
Ana Sabatova: We don't actually know if the house we live in will pass into the control of the local administration or whether it belongs to someone who will
• What was the reaction in Czechoslovakia to the recent coup attempt in the Soviet Union?
Ana Sabatova: People were very concerned by the danger of the victory of the putschists. There was a fear that the conflict would end with civil war - which is not yet ruled out.
I have a high opinion of Yeltsin. He called for people to respect and defend the legally elected organs and stated that the putschists were illegal. This meant a lot in a situation where the democratic forces were not well organized. It is also the case that people answered his call; without that of course Yeltsin's actions would have been wasted.
Petr Uhl: There were two main fears in Czecho-Slovakia; one was of a wave of immigrants from the east and the other was anxiety about the economic impact of the crisis in the Soviet Union, on which Czecho-Slovakia depends for raw materials. There was no great fear that similar events could happen in our country.
The right used the events to launch -after the defeat of the coup — a new campaign against the Communists and the Communist ideology, demanding the recall of the heads of the TV, the radio and Ceteka. 1. Jan Kavan is presently a deputy in the CzechoSlovak federal parliament. In the 1970s and 80s he headed the London-based Palach Press agency which disseminated material from the Czech and Slovak dissident movements and gave information about human rights issues in that country, as well as organizing the transport of exile and banned literature into Czechoslovakia. He was accused of working for the Czechoslovak secret police by the commission entrusted with investigating deputies. He vigourously denies the charges, which are based on thin and extremely ambiguous evidence. The case has raised questions about the whole procedure for lustrace ("exposure").