BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA / SWITZERLAND
International Viewpoint # 232 • July 6, 1992
Repression in Croatia
THE Croatian government has initiated proceedings against a number of oppositionists, including
Zagreb based journalists and
Milorad Pupovats, leader of the
Serb Democratic Forum, which claims to represent the "two thirds of Croatian Serbs who live in
These legal attacks come against a background announcement by the investigating prosecutor that thousands of people may soon be charged for war crimes including crimes" and new legislation under which all ethnic Croats are automatically considered citizens of the new state; non-Croats not born in Croatia face a difficult process for obtaining citizenship regardless of how long they have lived in Croatia.
Pupovats explained his views in an interview in the Belgrade independent weekly Vreme (October 21, 1991)
"Henceforth [Croatia's Serbs] must abandon Yugoslav sovereignty to take part in the working out of Croatian sovereignty. For this to occur, these Serbs must be helped by Serbia and by the
Croat majority which must sufficiently integrate them so that they no longer feel the need to consider themselves 'Yugoslavs'. * Yugoslav Federal Republic, the Bosnian Serb part of the former federal army, the territorial defence forces of the "Serbian Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina", Chetnik bands, mercenaries such as "Arkan" and "Tiger" from Belgrade; on the side of the Bosnian leadership the Bosnian territorial defence and the Croat defence council in West Herzegovina; from the Croat Republic, unofficial units of the Croat National Guard and the military arm of Dobroslav Paraga's Party of Law.
Bosnia-Herzegovina thus looks more and more marked out as the Lebanon of the Balkans, with Serbia and Croatia in the roles of Israel and Syria.
What political motives lie behind the sanctions and the threat of and partial implementation of military measures? The embargo's official aim is of course to put an end to the struggle in BH, but the real aim is the fall of the Milosevic regime, since the Serbian opposition by itself is too weak to remove it. This is the immediate aim of the USA, as of Britain and Germany. 6 intervention in BH itself are the Islamic The only advocates of direct military states who are putting themselves forwards as the defenders of BH's threatened Muslim population. For this a force would have to be set up under article 42 of the UN Charter. Decisive for the final decision on military intervention will be whether the sanctions sway the regime in Serbia.
Thus we can imagine the following scenario: as a result of the sanctions, Serbia runs short of fuel, there are long queues in front of the shops and factories have to close for lack of materials. For the first time in the crisis, Serbia has no international friends (with, perhaps, the exception of Greece).
And people are increasingly less open to the argument that there is a global conspiracy against the Serbian people. The united opposition gets stronger and the students demand Milosevic's resignation with increasing vigour. By now even the Serbian Academy of Arts and Sciences and the hierarchy of the Orthodox Church, until now supportive of Milosevic, have begun to express their reservations.
Even within the nomenklatura things begin to sour; the leadership in Montenegro starts looking for ways to separate from Serbia, a third of the newly elected deputies from the ruling Socialist (former Communist) Party decide to set up a Social Democratic Party, while the factory managers feel their privileges threatened by the taking into state control of their once "self-managing" enterprises. There is discontent in the army after Milosevic orders the mass sacking of long-serving generals and officers.
The Romanian model
An accumulation of factors such as this would lead not so much to an uprising led by the opposition as to a palace revolt against Milosevic which would establish a more moderate nomenklatura regime on Romanian lines.
It is of course quite another matter whether this would stop the war in BH. The Serb militia in BH have sufficient supplies to continue their war for several more months and inflict further death and misery on the civilian population. And this struggle will be all the more desperate the more uncertain support from Belgrade becomes. Even if the Serbian forces become weary, this does not mean an end to the turmoil. The strengthened Muslim and Croatian forces might then take bloody revenge on the Bosnian Serbs. Furthermore, the Croat government's barely hidden plans for intervention in BH have only been strengthened by the measures against Serbia. *
From the
IMF to
the
FA/18s
ON Sunday May 17, 1992, 38% of the Swiss electorate took part in elections where they were asked to vote on a series of questions including Swiss membership in the bodies of the Bretton Woods accords, also known as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank(WB). 56.4% of the voters declared themselves favorable to the participation of their country in these institutions. CHARLES-ANDRE UDRY
N THE immediate post-war period Swiss banking circles opted for remaining outside of these two institutions in order to protect the secrets of their banking system from international scrutiny as well as the autonomy of its monetary policy.
Since 1982 however, the government has publicly declared its desire to join the IMF and the World Bank. This was the time when the debt crisis broke out and the IMF once again began to play the role that the suppression of fixed interest rates had denied it at the beginning of the 1970s.
This role was none other than forcing the countries of the "periphery" to pay for the servicing of their debt. Switzerland was very active within the Club of Paris (which brought together the principal industrialized countries), and the Club of London (which brought together the private banks) in defending a very strict monetarist policy towards the Third World. However, unlike member-
ship in these two clubs, Swiss adherence to the IMF requires that the proposal be submitted to a popular vote if, in the three month period following the enactment of the law, 50,000 citizens ask for it. At the end of 1991, a large coalition was put together that gathered the 50,000 signatures necessary for the refe-
The government then decided to submit the question of IF and World Bank membership to a vote in the shortest possible period. This gave the referendum organizers three months to wage their campaign. This was not a fortuitous choice. Since 1989, the government has had to reorganize Swiss relations with a series of international institutions, above all the European community.
The leadership of political forces from the left to the right have campaigned for Swiss particiption in the IMF and World Bank, arguing that "Switzerland must reject national chauvinistic reflexes and enter international institutions." In this way they hope to avoid a debate on the content, policies, functioning and so on, of the IMF, and in this way also the vote will prepare the way for that on membership in the European Economic Community (EEC), planned for 1996.
Nevertheless, a debate is opening up amongst the population concerning the IMF, the WB and their policies in the Third World.
### National differences
Sharp differences have opened up between the German and French-speaking sections of the country. Firstly, the Swiss German media has publicized the discussion; this has not been the case in Francophone Switzerland.
Furthermore, there was much more active opposition to the IMF within the German-speaking Social Democracy, which had decided on a national level to support the referendum. On the other hand, the Social Democratic parties from the French-speaking cantons, along with the big non-governmental organizations (NGOs), all came out in favour of IMF and WB participation.
Opposition to IMF membership from a national chauvinistic point of view was slight, as was recognized after the refrendum campaign by those who had invoked an alliance "against nature" to justify a critical "yes" vote.
The coalition against IMF participation distributed 900,000 flyers, which represents one for every household in the principal towns. Numerous meetings and debates were held, in the course of which representatives of social movements, feminist and Third World organizations and trade unions spoke. A network was thus established between the NGOs, left-wing organizations and Christian circles.
An important task lies ahead for the movement against membership. Swiss policies within the IMF and the WB and in relation to the countries of the East and the South must be closely monitored and contrasted with the promises made by the government during the referendum campaign. IMF membership will only be useful for the Swiss government if it can obtain a seat on the executive
These seats are difficult to come by, especially as East European governments apply for membership. If the
Swiss ment succeeds in obtaining a seat on the executive, the creation of an independent watch-dog body could become a focal point of consciousness and reflection on Switzerland's imperialist policies in particular and the IMF and WB in general.
For the last six years the Swiss authorities have been studying a combat plane that they would like to buy in order to provide Switzerland with air cover". These studies began before the fall of the Berlin Wall. At the time of the fall of the wall, 37% of Swiss people polled favored an initiative in favour of abolishing the army.
The debate around purchasing combat airplanes took a new turn when the recession hit Switzerland in 1991.
Unemployment level hit a level unseen since the Second World War. Military expenses of 3.5 billion Swiss francs seemed totally out of proportion at a time when budgetary restrictions and
SWITZERLAND social crisis were occurring. In spite of hostile public opinion the State Council (the chamber that represents the cantons in the bicameral system) announced the purchase of 34 F/A-18 planes.
Demand for moratorium
Faced with this provocation the Organization For a Switzerland Without an Army (GSSA) launched a campaign on April 29, 1992, demanding a moratorium on all purchases of combat planes until the year 2000.
This initiative will allow citizens to intervene in a debate on the acquisition of military hardware - an area that has been explicitly excluded from public scrutiny through referenda (military spending cannot be submitted to a referendum.)
However, a constitutional initiative aiming at writing into the constitution a prohibition on all combat plane purchases is constitutionally valid.
A record 500,000 signatures were gathered in one month against the purchase of the F/A 18s. The petition was organized by the citizenry itself, which explains why the goal of 500,000 was met so quickly.
It would normally take 18 months to collect 100,000 signatures. This campaign constitutes a clash betacquiring military hardware. The initiative, therefore, opens up a debate not only on disarmament but also on the nature of democra-
The national council (the lower house which is elected according to the number of inhabitants in each canton) will discuss the purchase of the F/A-18s under the surveillance of these 500,000
It will be a debate to follow. * July 6, 1992 #232 International Viewpoint
Trouble ahead for
Irish government
IRELAND
The state was obliged to set up a Tribunal of Enquiry into the affair and a crucial stage is about to be reached. Involved is direct conflict of evidence between the current Taoiseach Albert Reynolds and the leader of his coalition partners, Des O'Malley of the Progressive Democrats. Another awkward issue is huge political
A SIGH of relief was heaved by all respectable folk when the Irish referendum on June 18 approved the Maastricht
Treaty on European monetary and political union by 68.7% of those voting. For leaders of Ireland's European
Community partners the result was a relief after the Danish referendum had interrupted the hoped-for smooth process of European integration and provoked broad questioning of the Maastricht Treaty.
For the Irish government the "yes" vote was vital. Ireland benefits greatly from subsidies: it is the most heavily subsidized country in the EC and any interruption of this vital source of income - which in itself provides one halfpoint of Ireland's 4% growth rate — would have been disastrous. A "no" vote would also have heightened the atmosphere of political crisis which has weighed on the government - brought to the fore by the abortion question but also manifested by political scandals and continuing labour struggles.
Opposition to Maastricht was mobilized around the abortion question, defence of Irish neutrality and generally found a response among those who feel that the European
Community (particularly its money) has mainly benefited the upper layers and that the workers, unemployed and small farmers have lost out.