The Croat leaders were also putting an optimistic face on things on their return from London. The pro-government press believes that the conference "strengthened the international position of Croatia and its president Tudjman". The Tudjman regime hopes to be able to compensate for its territorial losses (Slavonia and Krajina) by the annexation of Western Herzegovina with the blessing of the West. The population of Bosnia's big urban centres (half the population before the war), which for the most part remain besieged by the Serb militia and army, are massively opposed to the outcome of the London Conference.
The Bosnian towns and in the first place Sarajevo, which are ethnically very mixed, continue, despite the shelling, hunger and the ever-present fear of death, to reject the division of Bosnia along ethnic lines.
Revelations strengthen resolve
The revelations in the international media of the concentration camps and the massive expulsions of Muslims seem to have strengthened the resolve to mount armed resistance.
Croat papers have noted the recent arrival of light weapons previously held back by the Croats in Sarajevo which could be used in the setting up of the self-defence units which are being joined by citizens from all nationalities, including Serbs.
According to Radio Sarajevo the Serb military ring around Sarajevo may soon be broken at several points. The town of Gorazde has just been liberated and energetic resistance is starting to emerge in other Bosnian towns.
It seems that a turning point may have been reached in the war, characterized by mass resistance by the urban population, with the Muslims numerically dominant but very mixed in ethnic composition. *
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8
Party veterans and
T HE elections resulted in victo-
Try for Tito's former general and the current Croatian president, Franjo Tudjman, who got more than 56% of the votes cast. The supreme leader played on the widespread sentiment in favour of continuity and outflanked the opposition with a smart manoeuvre; his party, ON AUGUST 2, general elections took place in Croatia — the Croat Democratic Union (HDZ), the first since the state seceded from the Yugoslav which had 60% of the seats in the former parliament, passed a law which enabled it this time to get 70% of the seats with 40% of the votes.
Sixty seats were elected by proportional representation with a 3% barrier. Four seats were reserved for national minorities; Italians, Germans, Austrians, Czechs, Slovaks and Ukrainians. So much for the democratic veneer.
A further 60 seats were elected according to the British "first-past-the-postsystem" - that is, whoever got the largest number of votes got the seat and votes for other candidates were wasted.
Thirteen seats are to be occupied by the Serb minority. How was only to become clear several days after the poll. Tudjman picks his moment
Tudjman had repeatedly stated that there would only be elections when the war was over. However, in fact the war is not over and a third of Croatian territory remains occupied. Nonetheless the arrival of UN forces had calmed things down somewhat and Tudjman clearly calculated that this was the moment.
Everyone would be thinking about the war which Croatia had supposedly almost won. People were under arms rather than out in the streets. The favourable course of the war and independence were still fresh in people's memories.
But what might happen in the autumn? There might be trouble from the unions: the state debt had been soaring and living standards plunging.
Bankruptcies had been multiplying but for now the opposition was still weak. Let's get the elections out of the way in a few weeks, thought Tudjman.
The initial reaction of the parliamentary opposition was to call for a boycott of the elections, arguing that the war was still going on, and that the electoral law was unfair.
However Savka Dapcevic-Kucar, the eminence grise of the Croatian spring of 1971, decided to take part, along with her national-liberal Croat People's Party; after that all the rest of the opposition had to follow suit. Negotiations took place to find single candidates for the first-past-the-post seats.
But the voting itself showed that opposition promises to raise wages threefold were not believed.
The opposition presidential candidate, Drazen Budisa, and his Croat Social Liberal Party, got a creditable 20%, with the help of former German foreign minister Hans Dietrich Genscher, who was the first to recognize independent
The home Croats voted more moderately than their emigré brothers and sisters (who were also allowed to vote). It was among the latter group that Tudjman and his fascist opponent Dobro-
Paraga and his Party of Law; it looks at first sight as if a well-fed and wellbehaved theology student has accidentally run into a mob of bloodthirsty
But the impression changes as soon as he opens his mouth: "For a Croatia that extends to the Drina!" "UNPROFOR go home!"; "we will drive the Serbs back to Zemun [on the outskirts of Belgrade]!".
Every statement by Paraga is a media event and public sensation. But people are tired of the war. Paraga's gunslingers can no longer flourish in Croatia itself and have moved on to Bosnia-
Poor showing for neofascist party
Indeed, the only positive feature of the elections was the poor showing by Paraga's party, which got 5-6%, well below expectations. In many places there were irregularities in the voting.
The chairperson of the Social Democratic Union, Branko Horvat, personally tried out voting twice - and succeeded. In many places there were no polling booths. But such things did not
The HDZ greeted its victory soberly. There were no drunks in its campaign headquarters, only young, keen men in shirts and ties. On the wall were comfederation in 1991. CHRISTIAN POMITZER puters reporting the latest. In both one could see the fruits of the German CDU's efforts to "Europeanize" Tudjman's party.
The big chiefs, Tudjman and Stipe Masic, had left long before, but the feared interior minister, Manolic, who earned his spurs under the old regime, revelled in the victory, slapping trusted party veterans of the three year old party on the shoulder.
Veterans? That is, people he has known since the old days in the League of Communists.
Inner-party conflicts could resurface
The HDZ will have a struggle to get through the next four years unscathed. The marginalized opposition presents no danger for the time being
However inner-party conflicts, which were apparent last summer, could break out again. Then there is the question of privatization. Of course one wants to be "ready for Europe" and
But now that the party cadres have got their hands on the former selfmanaging enterprises, are they really to be expected to let them go again? And will this also apply to the press? Is the latter not already too unrestricted? The new/old president does not bother himself with such details.
He prefered to take his oath of office before a hand-picked audience in front of St. Mark's Church in the Upper
On this occasion, he committed one of his famous slips of the tongue, thanking the "Croat people and other citizens" rather than "the people of Croa-
Among the other citizens belong those Serbs who have remained in Croatia; about 8% of the population. Tudjman gave them a party, but they The so-called Serbian People's party, 9 which is allegedly to some extent made
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ex-YUGOSLAVIA skinheads
Keeping the refugees out it more difficult for asylum seekers to reach Europe and - if they get here — to be allowed to stay. These include visa restrictions, sanctions on carriers of persons without proper documentation, the right to send refugees back to "safe third countries" they have passed through and
"accelerated" processing of applications involving detention and quick
International Viewpoint # 234 • September 14, 1992 ex-YUGOSLAVIA up of secret policemen, got a bit more than 1% and thus missed the 3% barrier. This has put the central electoral commission in an embarrassing position. How to fill the 13 seats reserved for Serbs?
The answer was to put in Serb candi-
THERE are now more than two and a half million refugees dates from the lists of the parties who from the former Yugoslavia. Half a million are in other got into parliament.
European states. About two million are "displaced people"
With a bit over 5%, the former Communists won three seats, but since they still within the boundaries of what was once Yugoslavia.
had the most Serbs on their slate, they
Europe faces the biggest refugee crisis since the end of took eight of the 13 "Serb" seats, and thus, without lifting a finger, became the third largest party in the Croat parliament.
The Serb People's Party threatened to dissolve itself, thus removing Tudjman's figleaf in front of the West. So, four days after the poll, it was decided that the 3% barrier did not apply to this party, since it represented a minority.
The SPP thus got three seats as a gift.
If the opposition is divided, the same is true of the left, with four social the Second World war.
FINN JENSEN:*
F THE 23.5 million people in the six republics that formed Yugoslavia 10% are now refugees.
The numbers of refugees are increasing by 10,000 a day and could well increase further if there is a lull in the conflict as some people are unable to flee during the heavy fighting. Almost a million people have been trapped by fighting according to the United Nations High Commission for
Refugees: the crackdown democratic parties standing in the elec-
WEST EUROPEAN countries are making it increasingly difficult for tion.
refugees to obtain protection in Europe. Governments claim they only
Only one, the ex-Communists, now want to keep out "economic refugees", but their policies affect all kinds in new moderate repackaging as the
Social Democratic Party of Croatia —
In the late 1980s there was an increase in asylum seekers in most
Party of Democratic Change, got into
European countries. In the 12 member states of the European Commuparliament. None of the other three got nity (EC) there were a total of 170,000 recorded asylum seekers in near the 3% barrier.
1988. In 1990 it was 208,000 and in 1991 328,000. Germany got more than half of them. Germany and France together recorded around 80%
Little future for social democracy
It is also worth noting that while the European governments talk about being swamped by bogus refugees, Europe has only 5% of the
The worst score was that of the right world's estimated 17.5 million refugees. Poor developing countries in wing of Antun Vujic and his Social the so-called Third World host the majority of refugees. Pakistan has
Democratic Party of Croatia. His 0.7% three million, Jordan one million, Somalia half a million. Britain hosts may end his hitherto rather successful petitioning of the German and Austrian
The European governments, along with the rest of the rich world, social democrats and the Socialist only recognize a very narrow definition of what constitutes a refugee.
International. The building of Western-
The UN Convention of 1951 for refugees and the 1967 Protocols define style social democratic parties seems to a refugee as someone "who has a well-founded fear of persecution" if have little future in Croatia as elsewhereturned to their home country. The person has to prove that (s)he or her/his close family has been singled out for persecution (prison, torture in the former Communist countries.
re, threats of execution) by the authorities of their country. Refugees
Further to the left we come to the who fall within this definition are usually called convention-refugees.
Socialist Party of Croatia and the
Most European countries will only accept these convention-refugees as
Social Democratic Union. Both of genuine refugees. And most Western governments have started to these got a little over 1% and may soon interpret the 1951 resolution in a more and more narrow way - in order to reduce the number of recognized refugees.
For the presidential election, the
West European governments have signed international treaties
SDU did not run its own candidate and which prohibit deporting people if they are faced with torture or other called for a vote for the Socialist Silvije cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment or punishment in their home
Degen, who got a relatively respectable country. These "de facto" refugees are only given temporary stay until the situation in their home country is normalized
Branko Horvat's SDU is the only
The West European countries have developed instruments to make non-nationalist party in Croatia, but the respected academic's charisma does not seem to exercise its effect beyond the lecture theatre. Nonetheless, the
SDU is for the moment the only factor
10 which a left current can build on. * of all asylum seekers.