Political crisis deepens in Israel Michel WARSCHAWSKY TEL AVIV - The great majority of the forces opposed to the adventurist policy of Begin and Sharon declared a truce when the commission of inquiry into the massacres of Sabra and Chatila was set up. Publication of this commission's conclusion has now ended this political ceasefire.
What drew the principal attention, and rightly so, was the recommendation made by Judge Kahane and the two other members of the commission that Defense Minister Ariel Sharon resign.
In fact, two months ago, Begin made a hasty statement that he would not abandon anyone, and that if anyone in his government was called to account, he would back them up, resign, call elections, and ask the voters to decide.
But the matter is not so simple. The religious parties in the coalition dominated by Begin's Likud party do not want to hear about early elections. The likelihood is that in any new vote now they would suffer heavy losses. So, they have made it known clearly that, if need be, they will join with the Labor Party to form a new majority coalition.
So, after long hesitation, Begin opted for the easiest and most short-term solution. He asked Sharon to resign. The fact that the ousted defense minister decided to cast his own single dissenting vote against this, showed how clearly Sharon understands that what is being challenged is in fact the whole policy that he has been pursuing for more than half a year, more or less in the name of the government.
What the report of the Kahane commission has done is open up a new crisis within the Zionist establishment, at a time when it was more than ever divided about the course to take toward a war that seems to be going on forever and on which the country's political leaders have never had a firm grip.
The end of the respite created by the formation of the commission is confirmed by the violent confrontation between supporters of Sharon and the forces opposed to the Zionist leadership's present belligerent line.
The hundreds of thousands of demonstrators who gathered in Tel Aviv after the Sabra and Chatila massacres sueceeded in placing the Begin government in a dilemma. It could ignore this mass 6 reaction. But if it did that, it would risk touching off the development of a crisis that could split the government coalition. Or it could defuse the mobilization by a retreat, opening up the way for the formation of an independent commission of inquiry. In that case, it risked being condemned by the commission.
Under the pressure of the minority factions in his government, Begin finally agreed to defer the crisis. In the short term, this was undoubtedly the best option.
As soon as the formation of the Kahane Commission was announced, the Labor Party and Peace Now came out for a truce with the government, so as not to prejudge the conclusion of the commission of inquiry. For the first time in a long time, the government had a free hand to pursue its policy in Lebanon. Without this truce, for example, it would have been very difficult for the Israeli army to carry on its intervention in the Chouff mountains, which is very unpopular among the Israeli masses.
Another factor helping to demobilize the opposition to the Begin government probably was the opening of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in Khalde and Kiryat Shmonah. The widespread feeling that the war was drawing to an end, and the unwillingness of the Labor Party and Peace Now to create problems for the Israeli team through mass mobilizations and extragovernmental pressures enabled Sharon, who in fact has been directing Israeli policy, to up the ante demanding Israeli bases in southern Lebanon) and to stall the negotiations, at the cost of increasingly strained relations with the U.S.
It took two months to reach agreement on an agenda for the negotiations. And at this rate, there is every likelihood that the Israeli army will still be in Lebanon on the first anniversary of the June 1982 invasion.
BOGGED DOWN IN AN UNPOPULAR WAR
Nonetheless, the war is growing more and more unpopular. The Israeli army is getting bogged down in Lebanon. Every day, the army press officers have to announce new casualties. They are the result of guerrilla operations mounted by the Lebanese national forces and the Palestinian resistance, which have not shed and ruin throughout the Chouff mountains.
"How are you going to explain it to my parents when you have to tell them that I was killed in a feud between the Christians and the Druzes in the Chouff? How are you going to get them to believe that it was for the security of Galilee?" This is what a soldier wrote in a letter to the editors of the weekly Bama'haneh, which is published by the armed forces.
The last public opinion poll published by the Jerusalem Post in mid-January showed that 20% of those questioned favored a unilateral withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. Even in the government, a strong minority is demanding that the army at least withdraw from the Chouff.
The fact that the reservists have had to do eighty days military duty this year does not make the Israeli involvement in Lebanon any more popular. Nonetheless, it has to be made very clear that there is a gap between this feeling of weariness at the Israeli army getting bogged down in Lebanon and express opposition to the government that is responsible for this policy. The reason for this apparent paradox is linked to the policy of the Labor Party and its total inability to offer an alternative to the voters.
Taking full advantage of the truce, the Labor Party has not lifted a finger to regain the confidence of the majority of the population by putting forward a general criticism of the Begin-Sharon policy. This is first of all because there is no political alternative the Labor Party can offer that would not challenge the very foundations of the national consensus. Secondly, it does not believe that it can regain the confidence of the population, and not without reason.
Finally, the Labor Party is afraid of new elections that would be another plebiscite for Begin. It prefers to make a demonstration to the smaller government parties of its "seriousness, " its "responsibility," and its lack of substantive differences with Likud's policy in order to open the way for these parties joining it to form a new majority when they decide to take their distance from Sharon.
Having given up the fight in advance for winning new elections, the Labor Party has left the voters to Begin. It has chosen to maneuver on ground where it feels more comfortable, wheeling and dealing among the parties.
All this explains why of all the forces that mobilized between July and September against Begin and his dirty war, only the Movement Against the War in Lebanon has continued to carry on systematie agitation against the Israeli involve-
and who have no legal status, no rights, and are in what can only be called actual concentration camps.
The interview we publish below was given to IV correspondent Philomena
O'Malley by Leah Tsemel, who is representing the families of more than 6,000 internees before the Israeli authorities, particularly in the High Court of Justice.
ment in Lebanon. It refused to abide by the political truce, and rejected the illusion that the negotiations between Israel and Lebanon were going to put a quick end to the conflict.
It is significant, on the other hand, that two days after Sharon announced he had an agreement signed by Lebanese president Gemayel in his pocket, some 4,000 people came out for a demonstration called by the Movement Against the War in Lebanon. Moreover, most of them were fresh forces.
from unanimous not only within the Israeli population but also within the ruling class. The U.S. imperialists, particular, are going to do to alter the relationship in the Zionist bourgeoisie. this will further increase the pol-
In such a context, it is hardly likely that the government can launch neously at carrying on the job that the war could not finish, presenting U.S. imperialism with a fait accompli, and defusing the opposition movement that is going to mount again now after the publication of the conclusions of the commission of inquiry.
Moreover, every indication is that far from restoring national unity, a new military adventure could increase still further the polarization that was tragic. cally symbolized by the murderous bombing February 10 of a Peace Now a new military offensive _aimed simulta- demonstration.
CRISIS WITHOUT AN END
Judge
Kahane and his colleagues went as far as they could. To be sure, they rejected all the evidence that Israeli soldiers were present in the Sabra and Chatila camps during the massacres.