Coalition on the cards?
AFTER 17 months of the new rightwing government in Sweden, the country's opposition Social Democrats had almost 50% support in opinion polls. This climb upward mirrors the plunge downwards to under
30% that preceded the defeat of the Social Democrats in the September
International Viewpoint #245 May 1993
SAF to back off from confrontation has stifled pressure in the unions for a political strike and new elections, expressed by the
"For Justice" initiative based on left leaderships at local union level.
1991 elections. DICK FORSLUND — Stockholm, April 18, 1993
H OWEVER, in the midst of
an unprecedented economic crisis, Swedish social democracy does not want to take sole responsibility for government. Indeed they are fearful of the forthcoming 1994 elections in which they are predicted to get over 50% of the votes and an absolute majority in parliament. Social Democrat leader, Ingvar Carlsson, has been saying that whatever their majority in 1994, they will try to form a coalition government with the Liberals and/or Centre Party.
Local trade union leaders and the more ideological social democrats have strongly criticized such statements. But there remains a strong popular sentiment, fostered by the media and based on decades of class collaboration within the framework of the welfare state Swedish model that "Sweden needs cooperation".
The far right Conservative Party also plays to this theme. The Thatcherite leading party in the government coalition (which, for some strange reason is labelled "moderate") is talking of inviting the Social Democrats into a grand coalition.
The little problem with this is its own neo-liberalism and promotion of new labour laws that would completely change the balance of forces between employers and unions. Swedish social democracy cannot accept this in its present crude form — given that 99% of the trade union bureaucracy supports their party.
In March the government went into crisis following a parliamentary vote it lost due to the rightwing populist New Democracy (NyD) and the Social Democrats entered into secret negotiations with the four-party government coalition over further cuts in government spending to meet a soaring budget deficit. 26
The negotiations broke down over the issue of cutting unemployment insurance. The government has now turned to the NyD to get its proposals through parliament. Despite murmurs of protest from the Liberals the xenophobes of the NyD have been brought into the fold by Prime Minister Carl Bildt - which was the aim of their previous obstruction of government plans.
Nonetheless, Ingvar Carlsson is still propagating a coalition between his party, the Liberals and the Centre Party, both of whom are now in the government. At the same time, the tops of the Swedish LO trade union federation argue that the Swedish Employers Federation (SAF) must re-establish the Swedish model and "sit down at the other side of the table" and start real negotiations over new contracts — the old ones expired on April 1 and the employers are refusing to negotiate central contracts.
This crusade for the restoration of the Swedish model is doomed to failure. The Liberals and Centre Party will not split the government — this would be a humiliation for parties that were badly damaged by the previous bourgeois coalition of 1976-82 when the government broke up three times to the general amusement of the public and the Social Democrats.
The SAF meanwhile has no intention of reverting to the Swedish model at a time of grave crisis for Swedish capitalism. On the contrary, the employers hope to use the crisis and the existence of a bourgeois government to establish a new model with a minimal welfare state, without a centralized union movement and a fragmented working class.
The emphasis by the Social Democrats and trade union leaders on negotiations and appeals to the government and
At first, this movement got verbal support from the union leaderships. Some 200,000 workers signed a petition started in a shipyard in the south of the country threatening a political strike against the banks and speculators, and calling for the resignation of the government. Trade unions representing more than 300,000 workers signed a similar petition. But the trade union leaders refused to kick the ball when it was passed to them and the movement fizzled out.
But confrontation will not be avoided If the leaderships of the big unions do not want to fight the government, they will almost certainly soon have to fight the SAF. Much depends on whether the employers are sufficiently united behind neo-liberal principles to accept a continuing wave of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized firms and a confrontation with labour that may result in outright depression.
There are signs of uncertainty in the bourgeois camp. The rapid signing of a contract for shop assistants in which the government-appointed arbitrators sided may be an indication of this. Perhaps "principled" battle against collective contracts and, in the shop workers case, against all extra payments for working late hours and weekends, should be postponed until the economy shows signs of an upturn.
Another possibility is that the employers made an exception in the case of shop workers - mostly poorly paid women workers — who enjoyed considerable public sympathy.
In any case signs of anxiety over the strangling of economic activity by the government and employers' line have been showing up in the business press. "We save too much, let's start buying!" urges the Dagens Industri. "We need drastic restructuring of the whole economy but first let us stimulate an upturn" according to the Veckans Affärer. *