Final Results
Colorados Party
International Viewpoint #263 February 1995 country: a conservative plan personified by the National and Colorado Parties and a project for progress presented by Frente Amplio. This strategy, after getting stuck in the spider's web of institutional politics, has fortunately resurfaced.
Frente Amplio candidate Tabare Vazquez's presidential campaign has drawn attention to the demands for social justice; protecting the poor, the old, and workers, for employment and the rejection of repression,
The mass nature of the Frente campaign, Tabare's "crisscrossing' of the country, his public meetings with workers, the concrete measures the Frente proposed to improve the dramatic economic situation of the workers, the joining together of the most modest sectors of the population of Montevideo, reinforced by the Frente base in the poor areas, coupled with Tabare Vasquez's charisma gave the left an unprecedented result.
They almost won. They overcame the shock of the collapse of the 'socialist' block's, the errors committed during Frente control of certain municipalities, the anticommunist and anti-Tupamaros attacks from the bourgeois candidates, and the errors resulting from the Frente's choice of partners.
Despite the size of the result, a number of Frente's partisans are deeply frustrated: they saw Tabare's election as a historic opportunity to win power. But after the electoral defeat, new perspectives are opening up. The Frente won the office of mayor of Montevideo with a very high score, as well as nine out of 30 senators and 30 deputies from 99. This is a political upheaval: three parties are establishing themselves in a system designed for two. Referenda on education and social security
At the same time as the national and regional elections, voters were asked to approve or reject two proposals for constitutional reform proposed by the social organisations. The first would have made it obligatory for each government to commit at least 27% of the budget or 4.5% of GDP to education. The second would have struck down a series of social security regulations unfavourable to employed workers. The latter ballot was a triumph, winning almost 70% of votes cast. This proves that social security is a strong issue in Uruguay, nearly impregnable to neoliberal attacks. The education ballot did not gain the absolute majority necessary but it remains a difficult question for the incoming government, given that more that 500,000 people including the Deans of the country's principle universities voted for 16
Total vote 631 000 Change since 1989 +3.5% Montevideo 26,6% Other districts 37,6% Iotal 32,5% Senators 11 Deputies 34 the proposal. The main difficulty during the campaign was that Frente Amplio was the only party to support the proposal. What is more, those Frente candidates who received most votes supported the proposal more due to popular pressure rather from personal conviction. Thousands of votes in favour of these candidates were not accompanied by the separate yellow voting paper which corresponded to this Who will Sanguinetti govern with?
Sanguinetti will assume the presidency on 1 March, with support from a third of the parliament and from 5 of the 19 regions. The capital is now run by the Frente. Obviously, Sanguinetti and the Colorados must come to an arrangement with other political parties if they are to form a stable government. The Colorado Party could form an alliance with the Blancos. But this fragile 2/3 majority would face the active opposition of an united left, with one third of MPs, control of the country's capital and leadership of almost all the social organisations. The left would not fail to win political credit once the inevitable social costs of the Sanguinetti government's economic policy began to bite. The most likely scenario is that the new president will try to divide the Frente, inviting the most "mature' sectors to collaborate with his government whilst attacking the 'radicals. 2 Sanguinetti's attacks against Marxism, violence and the "non democratic" sectors of Frente Amplio, presented in a speech the day before the elections and in his first statements which followed his election, aim to divide the Frente in order to find allies with whom he can govern.
Sanguinetti continue the reconversion of the productive sectors in order to adapt the country to the demands of an economy integrated into the neoliberal processes taking place in the region. He will also make new attacks on the
Frente Amplio Nuevo Espacio
Blancos
605 000 603 000 101 000 -7% + 10% +5% 21,1% 44 % 7,2 % 39,6 % 19,5% 3,4 % 31% 31% 5%
10 9
31 30 social security system and other mechanisms of solidarity. But the Frente has the force to resist this policy: the government's possibilities to attain its objectives depend on how the left acts. Frente Amplio
When the storms of the electoral period have calmed down, the leaders of Frente Amplio will be able to assess the progress that was made in these elections calmly. The Frente must resist the temptation of certain leaders to participate or collaborate with this new government. They will have to insist - oh yes! on their participation in supervisory bodies like the Control Commission and the Supreme Court, from which they have up until now been excluded. They will have to place themselves in opposition to this government, a neo-liberal double of the outgoing National Party government.
The Frente will have to push everywhere the proposals made during the electoral campaign: employment, production, salaries, and 27% of the budget for education. The only responsibility, the only promise that the left pledged was that of keeping its promises: this is the key to credibility. All agreement based on a theory of 'governability, which does not respect the promises that the Front presented as an alternative, will lead them towards decline and disintegration. *
Notes
1. Batalla was Raul Sendic's lawyer during his imprisonment.
2. Sanguinetti's movement within the Colorado Party, Foro Batillista has already voiced its support for Danilo Astori, the 'moderate' leader of the Uruguayan Assembly, the dominant component of the Frente Amplio, winning over 40% of the total vote for Frente candidates. Although the Uruguayan Assembly still sees itself as part of Frente Amplio, it is the sector of the Frente most inclined towards a alliance with the traditional parties. Behind their affirmation of the necessity to develop a'state-building policy' over and above the interests of the parties and classes, Astori and the Uruguayan Assembly effectively support political and social conciliation and participation in government.