Massive protest vote — for the government!
The expected collapse of the ruling Socialist/Social Christian coalition after the May 21 General Election did not materialise. But, as Alain Tondeur explains, their re-election will not solve any of the country's problems.
Belgium The French-speaking Socialist Party (PS) and the Flemish-speaking Christian Social Party (CVP) remain the dominant forces in the two halves of the country. Their unnatural alliance survived the Augusta crisis (bribes to the Socialist Party in exchange for a Ministry of Defence helicopter order). The 'credit' goes to the leader of the Flemish Socialist Party (SP) Louis Tobback, who combined his authoritarian record as Minister of the Interior with a series of populist promises. The Socialist Parties seem to have avoided complete collapse because their traditional voters were alarmed by the increasingly "Thatcherite' neo-liberal opposition. With the right basing their electoral campaign on the promise to privatise the social security system, working men and women acted to block. They saw only one useful instrument in the elections → the two Socialist Parties, which (after years in government) campaigned vigorously for the defence of the national health, pension and social security network. So the first lesson of the elections is that solidarity is not dead! Individualism is not the universal ideology. The second lesson is that there is a significant block of the working population which is searching for a coherent strategy of resistance to the government's austerity programme. Those who condemn the 'unstable' "protest voter" should recognise this. As the political scientist Jan Billiet argues, "when the election campaign is concentrated on living themes — work, pensions and health - 'anti-political' behaviour looses ground." But the elections also reveal the continuing growth of the far right in the Flemish region. The mass media might be united in condemning the Vlaams Blok (Flemish Bloc) as fascist, but the party gained 70,000 votes and one extra seat in the senate compared to the 1991 elections. Their leader, Filip Dewinter (standing in Antwerp), won more individual preference votes than any other candidate. The Flemish Bloc has stabilised an electoral base among the workers. These voters are right when they conclude that one Socialist Party swallow doesn't make a social summer. And it will take more than a militant struggle to defend the social security system to win them back. The French-speaking far right was blocked 6 International Viewpoint #267 June 1995 by the media and the courts (which invalidated the National Front electoral list for elections to the senate). Nevertheless, they have six members of the Brussels regional assembly, two in the Walloon (French speaking south) assembly and two deputies in the federal chamber of representatives. Their score in the 'red fortresses' of Hainaut province reached 8-10% in some districts. The massive "tactical vote' for the Socialist Parties hurt the ecologists and the alternative left candidates. The French speaking ECOLO movement lost two seats, while the Flemish ecologists stayed in parliament, but lost at least 20,000 votes to the Socialists compared to the last elections. A long way short of the 10% they hoped to gain. The extra-parliamentary left did not benefit from the same dynamic as in France (where 15% of the electorate voted Communist or Trotskyist in the first round of the presidential elections). None of the far left formations won more than 1% of the vote. The "United Lefts" (GU) initiative won only 0.7%, compared to 1.7% in the 1994 European elections. The Mao-Stalinist Belgian Labour Party (PTB) won only 0.5% of votes, and the Communist Party even fewer. But things are far from stable. One third of Flemish voters chose a different party than at the last elections. There is a real desire for social programmes based on solidarity, and financed by the rich rather than the poor. There is also a racist-security obsession. The big question is how this explosive cocktail will affect the balance of forces over the next few months. And in particular, how the struggle between the left and right wings of the labour movement will develop Like in the other European Union countries, the Belgian bourgeoisie is now hesitating between a centre-left and centre-right strategy. The centre right wants to defeat the labour movement and the trade unions in a confrontation. The centre left offers to neutralise the labour movement through class collaboration and a social democratic management of the 'necessary' austerity measures. Political support for the centre-left option would be won through populist social measures, demagogy, and the exploitation of racist ideas and fears. So far, the bourgeoisie seems to prefer this second option. They need not be worried that the Social Democrats will really protect the social security system. After all, the deepest cuts in the welfare net have been made by those governments that included Socialist Party ministers. Both Socialist Parties support the White Paper of former European Commission President Jacques Delors (originally from the French Socialist Party) which prioritises the reduction of 'uncompetitive' EU salary costs and employers' social security payments. Nevertheless, concessions will have to be made. The Socialist Party must maintain a minimum credibility. They will have to resist the demands from the top capitalists for a significant reduction in public spending — mainly through social security cuts. The Belgian General Labour Confederation (ABVV/FGTB) will expect a return on its support for the Socialist Parties. And the left wing of the union movement which did particularly well in recent workplace representative elections, is in no mood to give up without a fight, or to tolerate the moderate reformism of the social-democratic leadership of the unions. All this will put pressure on the right wing of the governing coalition, the Christian Social Party (CVP) of Prime Minister Jean-Luc Dehaene. He is worried that any further delays to his austerity programme will increase the centrifugal tendencies in the Belgian state. The paradox is that the unexpectedly strong electoral support for the social democrats is the result of a massive current of resistance to social cuts and austerity plans. The leaders of the Socialist Parties have little to celebrate. Every step they take will reveal the contradictions which divide the labour and socialist movement. And if the left wing of the movement can find a way to support and animate the various social movements, there is a chance not only of a new wave of social protests, but the beginnings of a recomposition of the left. * The author is editor of the Belgian newspaper La Gauche, published every second week by the Socialist Workers' Party (SAP/POS), Belgian section of the Fourth Interational *