Rising tension loans. Loans equivalent to 40% of the 1995-6 state budget.
small in scope, and generally peaceful in nature, the trend is negative." Mounting street protests, coupled with the
MICHEL'S RESIGNATION IS A BLOW TO CLINTON'S HAITI POLICY. landslide victory of President Aristide's Lavalas Platform in recent local and parliamentary elections, will lead to
It follows a double defeat during the UN and US-sponsored increasing pressure to block privatisation, increase wages, elections: not only was the abstention rate high, but not enough of those elected are to Washington's liking. The and retain price controls, the memo singer Manno Charlemagne, whose anti-imperialist stance is UNMIH is exaggerating a little when it talks of "incessant"
well-known, beat the US embassy-supported incumbent, street demonstrations. But the sharpening
Evans Paul, to become mavor of Port-au-Prince. contradictions have led to a series of mobilisations across the
Al Gore had a number of preoccupations during his visit. country over the last few weeks. Protest has ranged from the
The new parliament is dominated by the Lavalas coalition. absence of justice and corruption of the state administration
Its ratification of the government's economic plan cannot be to the difficulties of everyday life (rent, food prices).
taken for granted. And preparations for the presidential According to the UNMIH document, Aristide is "the only election, which must be held by the end of this year, are politician with a large, nation-wide base of support". Once he goes, "the population is frightened about being betrayed, in the interests of the elite. The authors in any case recommend
The Clinton administration cannot be seen to put too much pressure on Aristide. But nor can they let him move away precisely such a treason: drawing the curtain on the crimes of the dictatorship, so as not to frighten the business milieu.
International Viewpoint n° 271 - November 1995 17
PRESIDENT JEAN-BERTRAND ARISTIDE RETURNED FROM EXILE on 15 October 1994, on a US Air Force plane. The atmosphere in the capital city, Port-auPrince, was one of joy. The same could not be said for the anniversary of this event. Prime Minister Smarck Michel had just resigned, complaining that his proposals for the introduction of a structural adjustment plan "lacked the necessary support" of Aristide and his government. US Vice President Al Gore was promptly dispatched to the island, where he gave Aristide a serious lecture (an "intense one-to-one meeting"). On 9 October Prime Minister Michel had presented the government with the draft version of a letter of intention which he proposed to sign with the World Bank. A number of ministers were sceptic, even opposed. President Aristide apparently asked Michel to postpone his visit, in order to allow more time for a public debate on the privatisation programme. A tew hours later, the Prime Minister resigned. Al Gore used his visit to repeat to Haitian journalists what Michel has been saying for weeks: without privatisation, without a structural adjustment plan, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) would not de-freeze the promised from the promises he made to them before his return to Haiti. In either case, this would mean admitting the disappointing results of Haiti policy, and giving the Republican Party a stick to beat Clinton with. The Republicans have in effect chosen Haiti as a field for conflict with the White House, and are currently threatening to block aid to the country. A Haitian Senate Commission has asked the US to return the top secret archive of the paramilitary FRAPH organisation. This request came several weeks after a man linked to US secret services, and accused of several political crimes, was freed from prison and allowed to leave the country. The Haitian Minister of Justice reproached the USA for their role in this affair. AN INTERNAL MEMO OF UNMIH (United Nations Mission in Haiti) reports that: "the economy has not improved sufficiently to assure a desperate population... This population, which had shown itself willing to wait for the situation to improve once President Aristide returned, now increasingly protests about its state. UNMIH statistics indicate that there has been a steady increase in demonstrations with economic themes over the last six months," said the memo. "While they have been relatively social
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Haiti
* Haiti The population is starting to have doubts about Aristide. True, his return meant an end to repression. And he deserves praise for having virtually abolished the army. But how come almost nothing else has changed over the last twelve months? These doubts contributed to the high rate of abstention in the elections. One of the highest abstention rates was registered in the central plateau, scene of Aristide's last pre-election series of meetings. Aristide is trying to preserve his popularity, by manipulating and controlling the mass movement. During his tours of the provinces, he announces the creation of presidential projects". These weigh down the public treasury, and short-circuit government policies. The President has also been careful, these last few months, to distinguish himself from his ministers. As complaints of the absence of justice rise, he has called on the people to submit to him personally the names of persons who could replace the current Minister of Justice. Privatisation makes Aristide particularly uncomfortable. Sometimes he strongly supports the privatisation programme, which he presents as another form of democratisation". More recently, he has promised to imprison those who dare sell off state property. His hesitation is not ideological, but tactical. For Aristide, this summer's events in Costa Rica demonstrate the risk that a clumsy privatisation programme could spark public unrest. Economic "democratisation" through privatisation means transferring public enterprises to the existing economic oligarchy, with circles close to the political elite sharing in the benefits of the transition. Aristide is now protesting that "political stability is a key element for rejuvenating the economy". But ex-Prime Minister Smarck Michel and Finance Minister Marie Michele Rey protest that they have been attacked for applying plans which were first presented to overseas bankers in August 1994 by Leslie Delatour, a member of the Presidential Cabinet. The events of the coming months are difficult to predict. Will the presidential election really take place? Aristide seems to have abandoned the idea of proposing a constitutional amendment allowing him to stay in office. But these last few weeks have seen a number of leaflets and graffiti demanding that his mandate be extended to compensate for the three years he passed in exile.
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The new parliament is an unknown element. It took up office at the beginning of October, after an interminable electoral procedure. The first round of elections was held on 25 June. But new voting took place on 13 August in one in four of the electoral districts, as a result of widespread irregularities in the initial vote. The UN and the USA bear a large part of the responsibility. Most of the opposition groups, who had given their support to the military dictatorship, realised that they would be marginalised when the vote took place. So they preferred to call for a boycott, and spend the summer organising a spoiler campaign against Lavalas, which they accused of all imaginable evils. These opposition grouplets had the support of the US Republicans, and some Democratic Party figures. The intense boycott campaign did not, of course, prevent those opposition figures who were elected to take up their seats. Finally, the second round of voting on 17 September confirmed the dominant position of Lavalas, which took three quarters of seats in the chamber of deputies, and almost all of those senate seats which were up for re-election this year. Lavalas candidates organised real campaigns in many districts, concentrating on the abolition of the army and a refusal of the privatisation programme. Many representatives talked of the danger privatisation represents for national sovereignty. But overall, this was sadly not the case. The Lavalas coalition is extremely uneven, and lacks a real programme. Many of the candidates on the Lavalas list are not members of any party. And the new batch of Lavalas deputies and senators include a good number of local big-wigs, and simple arrivistes, just waiting to be corrupted. Having said this, there is one difference between the old legislature and this one. A significant number of the new deputies and senators see themselves as spokespersons for popular interests. They will not easily bow down before one or other of the Foreign Embassies, an emissary from the Presidential Palace, or a lackey of the business oligarchy. And that is a big thing for Haiti! Notes 1. Under the constitution, president Aristide may not stand for re-election, and must leave the Palais national (Presidential Palace) by 7 February 1996.
Beijing 1995