Ireland
The challenge facing the republicans by Gerry Foley
FOR SOME TIME, THE LEADERS OF THE IRISH REVOLUTIONARY nationalist movement have been warning that the so-called peace process is in a crisis. On Sept. 30, about 500 activists of Sinn Féin, the political organization that supports the Irish Republican Army, met in Dublin to discuss the results of the negotiations since the indefinite ceasefire declared by the IRA more than a year ago. The negotiations have run up against two main obstacles - the refusal of the British government to offer any remission of sentence for the large number of republican political prisoners and the demand of the British government that the IRA surrender ("decommission") its weapons before all-party talks can begin. On the eve of the Sinn Féin conference, the clandestine leadership of the IRA issued a statement saying: "[British Prime Minister] John Major's government know enough of Anglo-Irish history to understand that there is no possibility of disarmament except as part of a negotiated settlement. Given that history, and the reality that they and their loyalist death squad allies hold the largest stock of licensed and unlicensed weapons, the demand for an IRA handover of weapons is ludicrous." AT THE SINN FÉIN CONFERENCE, the lack of any important British concessions to the republican prisoners was apparently a major source of tension. The Irish Times of Oct. 2 quoted a north Belfast delegate as saying, "Offering prisoners 50% remission time off for good behavior -what they had in 1989 - is an insult. There is great frustration in my area about the 'peace process'. There were indications of tensions at the conference but not of any explicit challenges to the peace negotiations policy of the Sinn Féin leadership." However, the same north Belfast delegate also said that: "One benefit has been the relationship Sinn Féin has developed with the SDLP [the bourgeois Irish nationalist party in Northern Ireland] and the U.S. administration. Though, they could both dump us if we go too far for them." THE MOST NOTABLE RESULT OF THE IRA CEASEFIRE is that republican leaders are now being treated as statesmen by bourgeois governments. In particular, the Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams, has been received at the White House and allowed to tour the United States and to raise money for his organization. Apparently republican activists are beginning to think that their seemingly broadminded bourgeois interlocutors might not be very reliable. Well they might. For every word the republican leaders get into the Gerry Foley is the editor of the San-Francisco based newspaper Socialist Action, and a former editor of International Viewpoint 10 International Viewpoint n° 271 — November 1995 mass media, the bourgeois rulers get in a thousand. And if the republicans now have better access to the public, they can also be more vulnerable to the pressure of public opinion, which in normal circumstances is dominated by the bourgeois rulers and press. For example, polls show that the majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland think that the IRA should give up its weapons. That is not surprising. The IRA military struggle had long been in a blind alley, and their arsenal is derisor ›y comparison with the weaponry of the police and army. I there were a real chance an acceptable peace, even Catholics could think that it would be foolish to let the IRA's arms stand in the way. In any case, the involvement of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland in the struggle is uneven, and the republicans' popular base depends on mass involvement. On the other hand, politically experienced people, even moderates, such as some prominent Catholic priests, have expressed tears that the disarmament of the IRA before the achievement of a democratic settlement, would expose the Catholic population again to pogroms. An international commission on decommissioning, chaired by U.S. Sen. George Mitchel, is expected to be meeting in advance of President Clinton's planned visit to Ireland in December. In the Oct. 2 Irish Times, political reporter Daglir De Braden wrote: "Senior sources believe that once it has been agreed to establish the commission, it will be difficult for any of the parties to reject its recommendations." The British government knows better than anyone that the IRA arsenal is not a significant obstacle to peace negotiations The advantage for them in pressing this issue is that they know that a section of the movement would regard the turning in of weapons as surrender. Thus, by making "decommissioning" a condition for negotiations, they can hope to produce a split in the movement. At the same time, they are increasing the pressure by threatening a new military crackdown. The republican leadership has responded to these tactics by calling for mass demonstrations to demand multi-party talks. The problem is that it difficult to mobilize masses of people for such a vague and unverifiable objective. On the oher hand, there may be a basis for a mass movement for amnesty for the republican prisoners. On Sept. 27, the European Court on Human Rights at Strasbourg handed down a verdict condemning the British for shooting down three IRA members without warning Gibraltar in 1988. The following day, the British High Court condemned the Major government for delaying parole of five republican prisoners. For some years, human rights advocates defending Irish political prisoners have been winning important victories that indicate that the British repression is becoming discredited in the eyes of informed public opinion.
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