Elections change little
The Pakistan Muslim League headed by Nawaz Sharif won an unprecedented landslide in the February 3r parliamentary election. B. Skanthakumar discusses the election with London-based journalist and activist Arif Azad. Arif Azad: In one sense the result is an extension of the old order. Nothing has changed for the majority. The huge mandate that Nawaz Sharif [leader of the Pakistan Muslim League] has received was the result of a stitch-up between President Farooq Leghari and the military to the advantage of this proestablishment candidate. The Muslim League is now the national party of Pakistan and has expanded from its base in Punjab province. It has solid representation in Sindh, Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province.
The Peoples Party has been reduced to its strong-hold of Sindh province - where former president Benazir Bhutto has land and family connections. Even before the election, many Sindhis sensed a change in attitudes of the Sindh towards Bhutto and her Party. Many of her core supporters deserted her by not voting in the elections at all. [Voter turnout was 36.36%, down from 43% in 1993].
The Mohajir Quami Movement [party of urban, Urdu speaking migrants from India] has made a comeback in the Sindh capital, Karachi, its stronghold. Benazir Bhutto did the military's dirty work for them by crushing the MOM and 'order' has been restored in Karachi though political and sectarian murders continue. The MQM will form the next provincial government in Sindh with the support of the Muslim League.
The Baluchistan National Movement has won a sizeable number of seats in that province. This new party was formed only a month before the elections by Ataullah Mengal. He is a regional autonomist and a key figure in the past insurgency movement there, subsequently in exile in London in its aftermath.
In North-West Frontier Province, the Awami National Party (ANP) was runner up to the Muslim League. The ANP is no longer a regional autonomist party.! They know that they can only rule their province with the support of the military and in collaboration with a Punjabi party. They have ditched their commitment to social justice and are now simply a party for the Pashtun people.
Many moderate bourgeois politicians who had previously been pro-military openly criticised the role of the military in the dismissal of the Bhutto government and accused them of rigging the elections to oust them from the scene in a clean-up of politics. Even a leader of the religious party Jamiat-ullami-
Islam, which is traditionally pro-military was extremely critical of them. Meanwhile Benazir Bhutto didn't have a word to say against the generals. She needed their support to save her future political fortune and to protect her family, particularly her husband, Asif Zardari, who is under arrest on corruption and murder charges.? • Benazir Bhutto was associated with the struggles against Zia-Ul-Haq's military regime and benefited enormously from the populist legacy of her father's administration and the "pro-poor" rhetoric of the Pakistan Peoples Party. And yet the dismissal of her government by the President on November 5th 1996 was greeted by popular indifference, even enthusiasm...
Some influential columnists and newspaper editors advocated this course of action four or five months preceding November. This strengthened the hand of the President.
In the February elections, Benazir Bhutto was voted out on her record in office. She really disillusioned the whole country. Her government is associated with high inflation. People are groaning under the burden of the rising cost of living. Benazir was perceived as being very arrogant. Even during her election rallies she never apologised for her mistakes and instead denounced the President for dismissing her, at every opportunity. Nawaz Sharif spoke at rallies which were far larger than his rival's. He was contrite about the record of his government while Prime Minister between 1990 and 1993. He seemed to be more in touch with the grievances of ordinary people.
Bhutto's biggest handicap was her husband, Asif Ali Zardari. From Mr. Ten Percent, he became known as Mr. Thirty Percent, representing his commission on business deals he negotiated using his influence]. When the President asked her to clamp down on Zardari's corrupt businesses, she appointed him as Minister for Investment!
One of the scandals which contributed to her downfall is "Surreygate". The Bhuttos are rumoured to have a 350 acre estate and mansion in Surrey, England. Zardari also imported a stable of horses which were fed on an expensive diet while the poor are scraping by. All this swelled public anger The press went to town on these facts. During the campaign, Benazir was low-key and conciliatory. She probably wants to strike a deal with the new government for her husband's release and was prepared to lose the election for this purpose.
Many members of the PPP believe Benazir should cut her ties with Zardari and concentrate on revitalising the party organisation and return to the populist traditions
Pakistan *
THIS MUST BE TOO HEAVY, SHALL
CARRY IT FOR YOU. of her father in the early 1970s. While her government didn't attack the interests of the business class, bureaucracy and the military, Benazir herself said that her dismissal was the result of a conspiracy by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. These institutions are using the rhetoric of "good governance" to criticise the kickbacks and rampant corruption, which reduces the profits • What has happened to the Islamic fundamentalist parties which were so influential in Pakistani politics and seemed to define the agenda even of mainstream secular parties?
The Jamaat-i-Islami boycotted the elections, though the Jamiat-Ullami-Islam did win a few seats. For most people, ideology takes second place to the day-to-day struggle. People pay lip service to Islam but very few Pakistanis want an Islamic state. They know the record of fundamentalists in areas where they have influence.
Secondly, the new Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif appeals to the same layer that is most supportive of these fundamentalist parties especially the bazaar merchant and the petty bourgeoisie more generally. He has captured this vote. Interestingly the rhetoric of these movements has also changed. They are less strident in their use of Islam as ideology and now focus on social justice questions. In fact they are to the left of Bhutto's Peoples Party on a number of issues. It is the state of the economy which pre-occupies people. Many voted for Nawaz Sharif thinking that, as a businessman, he would manage the economy well and at any rate he couldn't be any worse than his predecessor!
Fundamentalist movements have lost their influence. But given Pakistan's history. and its raison d'être as a state created for Muslims, these parties are not going to go away. Their electoral representation has always been low but these cadre based parties are the best organised. Over the past few years they have expanded their activities throughout the country, in every sector of society. They have cells in the armed forces and in universities. There is a sizeable presence in the Railway workers union and in the Pakistan International Airlines union.
April 1997 #287 17