* Japan the American currency.
Not only did this fail to solve the
American trade deficit, but it precipitated a rush of capital out of Japan into the
South East Asian dollar zone - at least $15 billion by 1990. This stimulated a flood of new speculative investment into the region, resulting in over-accumulation and a financial bubble, which eventually broke in the summer of 1997.
Stock markets collapsed, and there was a huge round of major currency devaluations, as the speculative capital flowed out. This pushed the Japanese economy deeper into recession and stagnation. Between 1992 and 1997 the economy staggered along with an average annual growth rate of only 1%. And then Asia crashed again. That crisis is still Pumping money in
Since 1993, in opposition to the dominant neo-Liberal thinking, Japanese governments have embarked on the biggest neo-Keynesian reflationary, pump-priming programme in the history of capitalism. There have been seven huge government spending packages. The latest package, announced in late 1998, promises $112 billion of new money, bringing the total cost to an estimated $760 billion!
Large amounts of cash have gone to construction companies to re-equip the country's infrastructure (described by sceptics as a "roads to nowhere" plan).
The government undermined some of the earlier packages by attempting to claw back part of the huge cost by raising taxes to reduce its budget deficit.
Although these massive stimuli have kept employment levels up and avoided a full scale slump for the time being, they have not succeeded in jump-starting the economy, even when combined with near zero interest rates. The latest figures show a fall in production of 3%, and unemployment is still rising. Global implications
In an increasingly globalised economy the effects of this crisis, in what is still the second largest economy in the world, is far-reaching.
As Japan retrenches, its huge foreign investments are halted or withdrawn, resulting in factory closures around the world. Worse is to come. As Japanese inventories increase, prices fall and inter-imperialist competition intensifies.
Although trade in the South East Asian markets is down by nearly a third, Japan's trade surplus with the rest of the world jumped in September by 45.6%! Japanese exports to the USA have continued to rise, up 3.9% in 1998, while overall US imports to Japan fell 9.3%.
In 1996 Japan took 44% of all US exports. Today, they are absorbing much less of America's production, because of the shrinking Japanese home market. The trade surplus will have serious knock-on
International Viewpoint #308 February 1999 effects in the USA and Europe and could lead to calls for protectionism.
In November 1998 William Daley,
US commerce secretary, told a meeting of US and European business leaders that Japan's growing trade surplus with non-
Asian economies was "a major source of instability" which could create political unrest by causing workers to fear for
US imports of hot-rolled steel from Japan had increased more than five times during 1998. But Daley's warning was directed against the European Union, which he said had to open its markets and take a greater share of Japanese imports or run the risk of a protectionist backlash in the USA."
"We will not be the dumping ground for troubled economies." he warned. "Unless Europe does more, there could be a huge public outcry [in the USA], loud enough to rekindle the fires of protectionism."
Both Daley and European Union Commissioner Leon Brittan warned that they would rigorously implement anti-dumping policies against unfair trading practices from other countries. No long-term solution
The Economist, more rigorous in its neo-liberal ideals, does not approve of such anti-dumping policies, or expensive rescue packages. The magazine is right when it says the bubble will burst and that neo-Keynesian pump-priming will fail to stop the inevitable, as the Japanese experiment is showing us.
But the idea of a free-market, deregulated, crisis-free capitalism, properly managed through controlling the money supply, is also a dream.
There is a growing crisis of overproduction and falling prices. In Asia there is serious overcapacity of probably more than 30%, especially in computers, electrical consumer goods and motor vehicles. But not just in these worst hit
World capitalism is currently producing far more goods than can be absorbed by consumers with money to buy them. Only a massive destruction of productive capacity and even higher levels of mass unemployment over the next decade will create the basis for a new recovery.
Unless, of course, working people can put a stop to the whole madness. The first step would be to fight for a united front with the neo-Keynesians, arguing for a massive programme of state expenditure on public works to defend jobs and services. German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine has made interesting noises in this direction. He, and the social democrats who are in power in all European Union states except Spain and Ireland, should be put under pressure to start spending. * * This article was first published in the British monthly Socialist Outlook. It draws in part on earlier articles in the US publication Socialist Action.
Acehnese, Indonesian and western human rights activists came together in New York city on 12 December 1998. Teresa Birks reports. By placing the history of human rights violations and current developments in Aceh firmly within the Indonesian context, the conference organisers aimed to formulate strategies to bring those responsible for human rights abuses in Aceh to trial.
In his opening address, Acehnese human rights lawyer Jafar Siddiq Hamzah underlined the need for international, Indonesian and Acehnese communities alike to put aside religious and political differences, and come together to help resolve the situation in Aceh. ger
He called on the "international community" to help Aceh and to raise Aceh as an issue in the same way that they did with Bosnia. He also thanked Human Rights Watch Asia, Amnesty International and TAPOL for their continuing support for the people of Aceh.
The conference covered a number of very important issues in a relatively short period of time. Sayed Mudhahar Ahmad (Forum Peduli HAM Aceh) emphasised how the Indonesian regime had benefited from Acehnese natural resources, such as LNG. Meanwhile, many people in Aceh still lived in poverty. Total reform was needed in order to resolve the situation in Aceh and that the people of Aceh must be given the broadest autonomy in order to decide their own fate. Military strategy of violence
Yarmen Dinamika, a journalist with the Acehnese newspaper Serambi Indonesia, gave the audience some specific and indeed horrific examples of the variety of gross human rights violations perpetrated in Aceh, from data collected by various NGOs, including Forum Peduli HAM.
He reminded the audience of the Indonesian government's attitude to the human rights abuses in Ace by quoting General Wiranto, who has said that the perpetrators of human rights violations in Aceh would not be prosecuted because "they were only carrying out their duties." Is it the duty of the military, Yarmen asked, to rape women, hang babies and torture and murder?
Suraya It (Temple University) explained how Acehnese women's cultural, economic, educational and human rights have been eroded since 1945. This, she said, is why the people of Aceh have expressed their aspirations through the Islamic Movement and by demanding the foundation of an Islamic state. In Aceh, under Islam, Suraya claimed, women had always had an important role in society, for example as resistance
The struggle for justice in Aceh leaders against the Dutch.
Acehnese Human Rights Lawyer Saifuddin Gani reminded the audience that human rights abuses in Aceh had not stopped since the announcement of withdrawal of the military operational status
(DOM) in August 1998, and that there were still numbers of Indonesian special forces troops (Kopassus) active in the region.
He explained how military tactics in
Aceh were similar to those in other regions, le. in trying to create the appearance of social unrest in order to justify the return of DOM and the use of military force.
Divide and rule
The presence at the conference of
Fernando de Araujo,
Secretary General of the East Timor group
RENETIL, underlined the consciousness of both the East Timorese and the Acehnese of the similarity between military strategies in both regions - the systematic use of state violence, regardless of religious, political or osc ethnic affiliation.
Indonesian
Human Rights Lawyer
Alamsyah Hamdani expressed his concern that
* Mass graves the extent of the military presence and influence on Indonesia's cabinet and 'civilian' government.
From the campaigning perspective, Jana Mason (U.S. Committee for Refugees) suggested the issue of refugees, particularly in Malaysia, provided a means by which to raise international public awareness of the issue.
Sydney Jones (Executive Director Human Rights Watch, Asia Division) focused her paper on legal mechanisms which could be used within the U.S. to help bring those responsible for human rights violations into account, as well as by outlining the possibilities for the
No Longer Heroes Anger towards the Indonesian military is especially high in three provinces Irian Jaya Jekerta
Indonesia establishment of a Truth and Reconciliation Committee in Indonesia. She emphasised that in order to be successful, such a body would need to be established by a government which was proven to have a serious commitment to change. It was acknowledge by the audience that the present government does not yet qualify.
Kerry Brogan (International Secretariat of Amnesty International) said that, although initially encouraged by what Habibie's government had stated in terms of its programmes for reform, Amnesty International now realised that this commitment has not been honoured, and that human rights abuses are continuing * *The author attended the conference on behalf of TAPOL. The British-based Indonesia human rights campaign was also represented at the conference by Liem Soei Liong. • TAPOL, the Indonesia Human Rights Campaign, I11 Northwood Road, Thornton Heath, Surrey CR7 8HW, Britain Tel: 0181 771-2904 Fax: 0181 653-0322 email: <tapol@gn.apc.org>
EDANE East Timor much of what is perceived as ethnic or religious conflict in Indonesia Free Dita Sari! and East Timor is in fact one of the military's strategies for dividing public opinion within Indonesia, as well as justifying the use of violence.
He brought attention to the case of Ishak Daud, who was recently sentence to 20 years for being a member of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM).
Alamsyah was most concerned that it appears that Ishak Daud was kidnapped by Malaysian secret police and handed over to the Indonesian authorities illegally.
Saraswati Sunindo (University of Washington, Seattle) looked at the status of women under 32 years of the New Order in Indonesia, which, she said, had failed to interject in the actualisation of violence and which has thus been 'normalised' and increasingly used as a tool of government.
John Roosa (University of Winsconsin, Madison) gave a detailed account of
Holland's Student Solidarity with Indonesia (SSI) and members of the socialist youth group REBEL kickstarted their solidarity work with a postcard campaign demanding the release of Indonesian activist Dita Sari
Dita is Indonesia's only known woman political prisoner. She is chairperson of the PPBI trade union PPBI, which is affiliated with the radical left People's Democratic Party (PRD).
In July 1996 she was arrested while leading a demonstration by 20,000 workers in Surabaya. In April 1997 she was sentenced to five years jail for "subversion".
Many political prisoners have been released since former President Suharto stepped down. But not the
East Timorese leader Xanana Gusmao, PRD chairperson Budiman Sujatmiko, Dita and others.
Because of growing international pressure, the authorities offered Dita an early release if she promised not to get involved in politics until the year 2002. Dita refused.
It is important to build up international pressure on the Indonesian authorities for immediate and unconditional release of Dita Sari and the other political prisoners. As a labour leader and a leading member of the radical left PRD, Holland's REBEL and others suggest that socialists abroad make Dita a focus point of their Indonesia solidarity work For more information, contact <saprebel@dds.nl> or <asiet@peg.apc.org>
International Viewpoint #308 February 1999 19
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Long live the bride(s)