Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien didn't help Charest when he discarded the possibility of renegotatiing Quebec's relationship with the rest of Canada ("the Constitution is not a grocery list", he said.
In fact, it was remarkable how much similar ground was occupied by the PQ and the Liberals on the constitution, as well as on social and economic policy. Michel Auger writing in Le Journal de Montreal, said "the two leaders are like Siamese twins joined at the Achilles tendon." Andre Picard in the Globe and Mail said "the campaign (had) the feel of an interminable company board meeting with two overly-ambitious vice-presidents pitching competing proposals to win favour with the shareholders."
enabled it to win this majority with only 42.7% of the popular vote; two percentage points below its score in 1994
The Liberal vote fell marginally as well despite the infusion of Charest, who left the federal Conservative party in a bid to unite Quebec's federalists. Although the Liberals actually scored 1% more than the PQ, their vote was concentrated in a small number of Risings (constituencies), reflecting the party's base among English-speakers, immigrants, and French speakers who live in the Quebec districts which border with Ottawa, the federal capital and a major employer in the region. PQ malaise
The Q's lacklustre performance reflects a profound crisis in its relationship with the nationalist movement. The party is caught in a trap of its own making Peddling backwards or at least sideways on independence wins no new converts. On the contrary, it sows confusion and hesitation in the ranks and gives the federalist side a badly needed second
The PQ was hit harder than expected by the fallout from its 'zero deficit' crusade. There is widespread anger over its deep cuts to education, social services and especially health care. The PQ's hapless Minister of Health, Jean Rochon, eked out the narrowest of victories in his Quebec City riding.
Like the NDP in English Canada, the PQ is not easily forgiven for its rightwing sins in office. The result - abstention from the campaign and at the polls,
as well as a small but significant defection to the ADQ. Liberal decline
While claiming a moral victory based on the narrow Liberal plurality in votes, the federalists had in reality very little to cheer about. The election confirmed the continued slide in Liberal support within the majority francophone population. The Liberals could muster only 31% support among French-speakers, down from 45% in the 1980's.
The federalist press tried to blame Charest's failure on tactical errors and inner-party intrigues. But this is to miss the forest for the trees. The Quebec Liberal Party is caught between the pumped-up Canadian chauvinism of its nastier big brother in Ottawa and the Quebecois nationalist aspirations it must address if it ever hopes to regain power in Quebec City. Demagogy is rewarded
Only the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) had any real satisfaction, seeing its popular vote almost double to 11.7%, although Leader Mario Dumont remains its sole Member of the National Assembly.
The ADQ's strong showing revealed an important undercurrent of alienation from the Liberals and the PQ. The appeal of the ADQ is diverse. On the one hand, it rallies soft nationalists still nervous about sovereignty but for whom the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) is no longer credible in advancing Quebec's interests.
To this 'middle way on the national question, the ADQ added a right-wing appeal pitched to younger voters. Mario Dumont, for example, promised to reduce the civil service by 25%. In keeping with his origins in the Young Liberals, Dumont is even more rightwing in his social and economic philosophy than Charest.
English Canada's right wing Reform Party recognised this when they identified Dumont, rather than Charest, as the man who could "unite the right" in Quebec. Unions' silent complicity
Quebec's trade union leaders offered no political guidance let alone a coherent alternative in this election. Under pressure from the ranks, the Teachers" Union (CEO) organised a one day strike and mass rally mid-campaign to press their demand for pay equity.
The FTQ (Quebec Federation of Labour) confined itself to friendly exchanges with Jean Charest over how to amend Quebec's labour code and proclaimed its support for the proposed takeover by Loblaw's of Provigo, the big Quebec grocery chain. The CSN spoke out for underpaid childcare workers but was otherwise nearly invisible.
The silence of the union leaderships contributed in no small way to the restrictive pro-business discourse that dominated the campaign. In this way, the ADO had a virtuallv free hand to court the protest vote with its conservative bombast.
It was left to the smaller parties of the left, notably the PDS and the RAP, to inject some real debate but their efforts were hampered by their scant resources, relative social marginalisation and a virtual media black-out. Playing it sate
The PQ's muted victory reinforces Bouchard's cautious brand of conservative nationalism for the time being. The referendum will be postponed for at least two years and the watchword will be "good government". In the meantime, Quebec will take its place at the constitutional table starting with the social union talks between Ottawa and the provinces.