No road but the struggle
Trained \HIS sharpened turn towards neoliband authoritarianism reflected one of the gravest economic crises in the country's history. Between January 1999 and January 2000 the sucre was devalued by nearly 300%, and since the beginning of Mahuad's presidential term in August 1998 the exchange rate of the dollar has gone up five times. The last increase was considered as purely speculative by the majority of analysts.
Inflation has leapt by more than 60% in the course of the last year. The workers are suffering the full ravages of unemployment - in 1999, more than 150,000 people lost their jobs. The purchasing power of wages has also deteriorated rapidly - in the 17 months of the Mahuad government the average monthly salary fell from $160 to $37. During this time, in December, the Wages Council sanctioned a pay increase of only 10%.
### Harsh blows
Meanwhile, the cost of public services has spiraled; the price of water has increased by 400% and telephone and electricity bills have gone up by almost as much. The price of petrol has been held stable following protests but an increase is planned for July 2000. The economy suffered some harsh blows in 1999 - GDP fell by 7%, although the fall leveled off during the last quarter. Company debts have reached $4.8 billion, and many have already announced their inability to pay up. Small and medium companies have begun to go into liquidation.
The economic crisis was precipitated by a financial crisis. In 1998 and the first quarter of 1999 several of the most important banks went bankrupt and came under state administration. Currently, 60% of the banks are under state control, although government officials have said that once healthy they will be reintegrated into the private sector. Last March the financial crisis led to a freezing of deposits worth approximately S4 billion. Meanwhile, the state allocated around $1.8 billion to the 'rescue' of the banks. But before the freezing of assets, nearly S6 billion had already left the country.
The government's problems were not confined to the economic front. Mahuad
ON THE evening of Sunday
January 7th Ecuador's President, Jamil Mahuad, announced the 'dollarization' of the country's economy - the linkage of the national curren-
Icy, the sucre, to the dollar.
Moreover, a number of deregulatory measures were to be taken: increased flexibility of labour contracts as well as acceleration of the privatization of the energy industry and the social security system. At the same time, Mahuad threatened repression and a 'firm hand' against those who would oppose the implementation of the reforms.
### JUAN ADOLFO
MONTENEGRO had begun his term in the framework of an apparently solid alliance with the Social Christian Party (PSC), together with the small Conservative Party and the Alfarist Radical Front. On this basis, the government intended to accelerate the hitherto rather restrained application of the neoliberal model, notably in the area of privatization
Agreement breaks down
But the economic earthquake of the March 1999 banking crisis led to the breaking of the agreement, with the PSC and the bourgeoisie of Guayaquil (Guayaquil, on the Pacific coast, is Ecuador's most important port and Quito's main rival for the economic and political leadership of the country accusing the government of favouring the banks of the capital, Quito. Through this conflict, the PSC and the dominant groups of Guayaquil waged a struggle for the private appropriation of public funds. By gambling on a 'regionalist' mobilization they rendered disunity inevitable.
Consequently the government tried to reach an agreement with the centre-left,
Ecuador * notably the Democratic Left, which benefited from having a sympathizer as a director of the central bank. But by insisting on neoliberal reforms the government again brought about the breakdown of this agreement. Mahuad's alliance policy then took another sharp wrench - he sought an understanding with the Roldosiste Party of former president Abdala Bucaram, dismissed from office following a massive popular mobilization in February 1997.
Agreement was reached on the condition that the government accepted changes in the penal code seeking to annul the legal process against Bucaram. These changes were finally officially published just after the announcement of dollarization. But these new agreements would also bring their share of difficulties, with a group of deputies from the president's party defecting.
### Demands for resignation
From this time onwards demands for the resignation of the president began to gain some ground - among those withdrawing their support from Mahuad were former President Rodrigo Borja, leader of the Democratic Left, former President Leon Febres Cordero, leader of the Social Christian Party, the principal officials of the chambers of commerce in the Guayaquil region, employers' leaders in Altiplano, as well as some deputies from his own party, close to former President Oswaldo Hurtado.
During this time, in late December, the Confederation of Indigenous Nations of Ecuador (CONAIE) and the Coordination of Social Movements (CMS) demanded the resignation of the government as a whole, together with the Congress and the Supreme Court of Justice, calling for the setting up of 'parliaments of the people' to replace Congress.
Of course, the demands for resignation came from opposed points of view, as had not been the case during the fall of Bucaram in 1997. The popular movements demanded a change of social and economic model, whereas the employers' groups were pressing for a strengthening of the neoliberal policy, dollarization and the acceleration of 'reforms' and privatization. At this time the popularity of the president International Viewpoint #320 April 2000 17
* Ecuador plummeted, reaching the level of 9% in the first week of January 2000, against 53% demanding his resignation. It was now that Mahuad responded by totally accepting the employers' demands.
The political crisis experienced by the Mahuad government has its roots ultimately in the crisis of the regime which opened in February 1997, something the dominant sectors have not succeeded in resolving to this day.
Each serious crisis accompanied by social protests throws more light on the fragility of the presidency. The mobilizations undermine the stability of the government, preventing it from establishing itself within a renewed constitutional continuity every four years. Social demands can radicalize rapidly and large sectors of the masses have been pushed to a state of quasi-permanent protest by the intensification of the 'reforms'. Thus social mobilization has twice succeeded in preventing the implementation of more radical neoliberal measures, in March and July 1999.
On the other hand, faced with the economic debacle, the bourgeoisie has ceased to take into consideration its general class interests and priorities its own sectoral interests, although it has also encountered some difficulties in representing itself as a social class. However, the present situation is characterized by paralysis, for the popular movement has not succeeded in developing a credible alternative for the majority of the population, nor in taking the leadership of a movement of organization and more sustained mobilization.
### Army is arbiter
In this context appeals to "arbitration' by notables, the Church and above all the military, become more pressing. The armed forces, who assumed this task in February 1997, have not abandoned this role of arbiter and exercise a tutelage on democracy with every upheaval. But the armed forces themselves are traversed by the conflicts which determine social life. Their unity seems to be maintained by strong institutional sentiment rather than the firmness of the hierarchy; it is this which has led them to go back to the mechanism of internal consultations.
The social and economic conditions consequently tend to undermine the legitimacy of governments, including the state institutions, and social consciousness detaches itself easily from the idea of their 18 International Viewpoint #320 April 2000 immutability.
This persistent political crisis ultimately expresses the difficulties of the bourgeoisie and its successive governments in carrying through the neoliberal programme, implemented progressively from 1982 then with more force and coherence from 1994 onwards. Since this date, the social forces have positioned themselves very clearly in this central conflict, throwing into question both the economic model and the political model of limited democ-
In the period leading up to Friday January 7th demands for Mahuad's resignation became more urgent, coming from everywhere, with the press itself no longer ruling out such a possibility. At the same time, truck drivers announced strikes for Monday January 10th. The CONAIE and the CMS prepared for mid-January mobilizations to strengthen the setting up of 'parliaments of the people'. All in defiance of the state of emergency declared by Mahuad on January 5th - rumours of resig nation were flying around. Until the announcement of the measures of the evening of Sunday January 9th.
With dollarization, Mahuad attempted to convince the big employers' groups of his capacity to administer the state by assuming fully the programme demanded by the employers' Chambers. Moreover, he left open the possibility of reaffirming the governmental agreement with the PRE and bringing in the PSC.
Little by little, on Monday and Tuesday, the opposing parties came to accept the measures taken. The clearest sign was the decision taken by the big banks to support the quotation of the dollar at 25,000 sucres. The final result was that the government, at least temporarily, succeeded in reversing the relationship of forces. This reversal was reinforced by the incomprehension among the popular classes of the meaning of dollarization and its effects on living conditions. Thus the first polls showed an improvement in the government's image, reflecting a passive support at least.
New elements
The week of January 17th introduced new elements to this class confrontation bourgeoisie and its parties behind it, after having adopted the economic policy demanded. At the same time, measures of repression against the popular movement began to be forcefully carried out - arrest of leaders, occupation of universities, escalation of violence against demonstrators, intrusion of the armed forces in the indigenous communities. All this showed that the bourgeoisie as a whole had made the choice to close ranks around the government and thus smash any attempt at a popular alternative.
During this week, mobilizations began in an unequal fashion - partial closure of roads, urban mobilizations although weak and sporadic, appeals to mobilization and occupations of roads. In the streets the division of the mass movement was already apparent, between a sector linked to the CONAIE and another to the Patriotic Front. Their incapacity to coordinate their activity was reflected in competing initia-
Movement seizes power
The popular and indigenous movement, together with a group of soldiers with some young officers at its head, took power in Ecuador for several hours on Friday January 21st, in a climate of growing social mobilization.
Antonio Vargas, CONAIE, and colonel Lucio Gutierrez surrounded the Congress with a group of indigenous peoples, repudiated the powers of the state and formed a governmental junta. In the hours which followed, the top military hierarchy, the employers, the different political parties (Social Christian, Popular Democrat, Roldosist and so on) and members of the government found a response to this coup carried out by the popular movement and a sector of the army, by making vice president Gustavo Noboa president of the republic in place of
Meanwhile tens of thousands of demonstrators came onto the streets across the country to support the overthrow of Mahuad and the formation of a government rejecting dollarization and the various neoliberal measures taken some days beforehand. The pressure brought by the US government (threats of sanctions and a blockade like Cuba') the unity of the bourgeoisie, the tardiness of the urban popular sectors in joining the mobilizations, the army's ability to cover up its divisions are some of the elements which determined the defeat of the popular rebellion.
March 3rd, 2000 Unified Secretariat of the Fourth International
But the profound causes of the crisis are obviously still not resolved.
In the hours which followed his inauguration, the new president announced the pursuit of dollarization and privatization, while the leader of CONAIE, Antonio Vargas, went into semi-clandestinity, several officers were arrested, the last indigenous groups present in Quito were dispersed by special forces and the deputies demanded exemplary sanctions against the "insurgents'.
While no one could for the moment predict fully the consequences of this defeat, some lessons can already be drawn from these events.
Ecuadorian society is increasingly polarised, and the conflicts clearly take on the character of a class confrontation. The bourgeoisie has closed ranks around an fort in some victories; Mahuad has finally been removed from power. This reinforces in the social consciousness the conviction that the government cannot act with impunity, and that it is the people which is sovereign in a democracy - governments are only legitimate when they satisfy popular needs.
It is important to note that social struggles have acquired, almost naturally, a clear class character, without for all that ceasing to attract to them increasingly diverse sectors. The social articulations have then a tendency to stand out with more clarity. The majority of the population has been able to perceive clearly that the political class, the state institutions, the military and Church hierarchy all protect the interests of the dominant classes. The
Ecuador / Chile * ble that some similar forms of organizations will reappear as and when the situation demands it.
But immediately it is not possible to measure the breadth of the defeat in terms of demoralization. Nor is it possible to predict the harshness of the repression, against the officers and against the popular organizations. Beyond this, the pursuit of the neoliberal model and the impoverishment which will result from it could, in addition to demoralization, condemn the social movement to torpor for a longtime. There is no indication that the crisis of the regime has been checked. If the uprising of January 21st has been defeated, the popular movement still has some reserves. Its principal task continues to be confronting the model of pauperization and authoritar-
*parliaments of the people' remain a con- ianism, even in difficult conditions. And institutional solution. All its divisions have quest for future struggles, and it is proba- there is no other road than the struggle. * been put aside for the time to face down the popular mobilizations. The strengthen-
Fourth International condemns liberation of Pinochet ing of neoliberalism has also reinforced social polarization.
PINOCHET: GLOBALIZED IMPUNITY
It appears obvious that there exists
The Fourth International expresses its most categorical repudiation inside the armed forces a 'nationalist' curand shares the indignation of the democratic, progressive and revolurent close to the demands of the popular movement which seeks to develop a distionary forces of the world at the liberation of the mass murderer tinct political project. In his speech,
Pinochet. The decision of the British Home Secretary Jack Straw and colonel Gutierrez referred to the 'Juliana
Tony Blair's Labour government confirms that the much trumpeted revolution', a movement of young soldiers global "justice" is a farce in the new world order dominated by the who overthrew the regime of the bankers imperialist powers and the multinationals.
in 1925. But the divergences are still not pronounced enough inside the military
Thanks to the complicity of the governments of France, Switzerland, institutions. Given that fact, a strategy
Belgium and Spain, who for political, economic and democratic reabased almost exclusively on a military prosons have not opposed the British decision, the murderer of thousands nunciamiento had little chance of succeedof people has returned unpunished to his country. The Fourth ing.
International support all protests, democratic mobilizations and
Popular divisions demonstrations of solidarity with the Chilean people and honours the
The popular mobilizations remained memory of those who fell in the combat against the military dictatormarked by strong divisions and by discontinuities. Whereas the countryside was in
At the same time, it demands the judgement and punishment of the the vanguard and the struggle rested essenformer dictator, and all the torturers and murderers who, on behalf of tially on the indigenous population, their the state and its security apparatuses, have been responsible for terror, efforts were only to a limited extent accompanied by significant urban mobicrime and disappearances in Latin America. Therefore, we support lizations.
unconditionally all the initiatives of the human rights organizations as
In most of the big towns, the majority well as the comrades, families and friends of the victims who suffered of the popular sectors began to enter into the atrocities of regimes like that of Pinochet. And involve ourselves struggle only when the rebels took over in the struggle against impunity and for the creation of a genuine inter-
Congress and the march on the government palace was organized. The strategy national system that guarantees the defence of and the fullest respect adopted has apparently not taken into account the disparities of the movement.
The principal and urgent task to come will be to renew the links.
However, the movement can take com-
19
International Viewpoint #320 April 2000
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ship headed by General Pinochet. for human rights. *
Facing the future
* Sao Paulo Forum
Declaration of the 9th meeting of the Sao Paulo forum (extracts)
It the dawn of the 21st century and the third millennium of our era, a decade after the creation of the Sao Paulo Forum, the aggravation of the political, economic, social and cultural crisis which humanity is experiencing has borne out the motives (both real and apparent) which lay behind the convocation of the "Meeting of parties and organizations of the left in Latin America Caribbean" in Brazil in July 1990
The founding nucleus of what is today the Forum attended this meeting in Sao Paulo to allow an exchange of views on the impact that the end of the bipolarity resulting from the end of the Second World War would have on the struggle of the parties and movements of the left in Latin America and the Caribbean.
### Convergence
The Sao Paulo meeting had the merit of Latin-American history, in the convergence of parties and movements across the whole spectrum of the left.
These latter, who had their origins in the most diverse forms of struggle noted together that the dramatic problems affecting the peoples of the world, particularly those of Latin America and the Caribbean, would not disappear with the end of the Cold War, but would only be eliminated with the end of oppression, domination, exploitation and racism.
In their plurality and their diversity, the movements and parties who were members of the Forum of Sao Paulo came together in the struggle against imperialism, which in the two last decades of the 20th century has adopted the form of neoliberal capitalism.
The 10 years since the creation of the Forum have only served to confirm our initial analyses. Just as in July 1990, we reject categorically the idea that neoliberalism can constitute a project of development, which after a period of adjustment, will pour out wealth to all the inhabitants of the 20 International Viewpoint #320 April 2000 land. We reject the illusion according to which the liberal doctrine responds to supposed inexorable laws of economic, scientific and technical development.
The reality of the last decade has particularly demonstrated the limits of the neoliberal model and its incapacity to resolve the problems of humanity. The failure of the Seattle meeting in December 1999 is the symbolic expression of the strength of the international anti-neoliberal
The neoliberal doctrine in reality represents the economic and political interests of those who are ready to sacrifice and exterminate the majority of humanity to pursue the diabolical and dizzying accumulation of wealth, in practically unimaginable proportions.
The world economy has entered phase of depredation. The "key words" which describe the world today are concentration, polarization and colonial domination: concentration of wealth, property and production; political, economic and social polarization, with its associated poverty, exclusion and marginalisation.
This polarization and this inequality expresses itself at the world level by the small proportion of the population which consumes the major part of the product and benefits from the services available.
It is expressed also by the concentration of wealth in the hand of less than 300 families, by the millions of other human beings deprived of the access to work, health, food, a dignified dwelling place, education, elementary rights, subsistence, reproduction and development conquered by the human race over generations.
### US aggression
To this is added the effects of the unilateral military aggression of the United States and its criminal determination to violate the post-war international legal order, clearly expressed by the genocide of the people of Yugoslavia under the auspices of the UN and NATO, reformed for these purposes.
The only way to save humanity from a programmed self-destruction is to establish the satisfaction of human needs as the fundamental priority of the future society - not individual gain or profit. The solution to the world's problems will involve the eradication, through struggle, of the fundamental class contradictions which are closely linked with the most diverse forms of oppression, discrimination and exploitation, notably those based on gender, ethnicity, race, culture, religion, age, and so on.
### Colonial vestiges
The peoples of the world cannot aspire to strengthen their liberty, nor conquer their right to self-determination and their total sovereignty so long as all the vestiges of colonialism (like that which oppresses the peoples of Puerto Rico, Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guyana, Dutch Antilles and in a certain sense the Malvinas) have not been wiped away.
The left in the 21st century can take into account experiences of elaboration of propositions, conquest of spaces and power, construction of alternative models, all stemming from the study of the social reality that we hope to transform. It must also consider the necessity of envisaging profound changes of structure which can reverse the process of destruction of the forests, combat international financial speculation, redistribute wealth, democratize and socialize the elaboration of the budget, promote social participation and political and economic decentralization.
It will also face the task of transforming the state, to put it at the service of development and the deepening of a new integral democracy: social, political, cultural and of gender. The peace accords in Guatemala can be identified with this type of process. Other significant political processes have taken place or are taking place in Ecuador, Venezuela, Panama, El Salvador or Colombia.
We must also note the presence of the indigenous peoples of America, who resist the assaults of neoliberalism and the transnationals.
Their rebellions and mobilizations have served to highlight the necessity of profound transformations in our national states to guarantee the preservation of biodiversity and the ecosystem, as well as ethnic plurality and the recognition of their identity, rights and self-determination.
Ten years after the foundation of the Sao Paulo Forum, the Latin American left reaffirms its traditions of democracy and resistance. *