Face to face
THE echoes of January 21, when an indigenous mobilization and the announcement of a speedy judgment and punishment for those implicated in the uprising was followed, immediately, by the beginning of proceedings against the social leaders who appeared publicly at the head uprising of a group of young colonels forced the exit of ex-president
Jamil Mahuad, resonated in Ecuador's ballot boxes on Sunday May
21. Even though the provincial electoral tribunals have not given the final results, already it is clear that the provincial and municipal elections in Ecuador showed a deeply divided country, with the rival forces staring at each other face to face.
JUAN ADOLFO MONTENEGRO*
THE elections saw the triumph of the
I sayin. in chaine i doe end.
mayorship of Guayaquil, the country's most populous city, and General Paco
Moncayo, Social-Democratic candidate for the mayorship of Quito. But another big winner was the indigenous organization Pachakutik which experienced a spectacular leap in support in the mountainous provinces and the east.
On the coast the winners were the
Social Christian Party of ex-president
Febres Cordero (1984-1988) and the
Roldosista Party (of Abdalá Bucaram, removed from the presidency by a massive social mobilization in February 1997, after barely 6 months in government).
Social fracture
In the mountains, on the other hand, the voting was reversed in favor of the left and center left (represented on the one hand by Pachakutik and the alliance between
Democratic
Popular
Movement and the Socialist Party, on the other by the Democratic Left-Social-
Democratic current). The political-electoral divisions on May 21 practically reproduced the same social fracture that we witnessed barely four months ago.
After January 21, the new government installed by the generals of the High
Command under
Gustavo Noboa,
Mahuad's vice-president, had reaffirmed the dollarization of the Ecuadorian economy announced by its predecessor, as well as the acceleration of the privatization programme and the application of a tough adjustment program.
Mahuad's fall had pushed the business groups to regroup, and that new alliance was expressed in a clear way in the makeup of the cabinet, which includes big industrialists from areas like floriculture,
16 International Viewpoint #323 July-August 2000 mining, textiles and fishing.
With that capital, and the endorsement of the US government, Noboa did not offer any changes in social policy that went beyond promises and words. Meanwhile, the reinforcement of dollarization sent prices rocketing at rates previously unprecedented in Ecuador.
Even an official organization, the National Institute of Statistics and Censitses, revealed at the end of April that the cost of the basic basket had gone up by 50% in barely four months to 240 dollars. However, wages stayed below 50 dollars a month. In order to complete the panorama, fares on public transport were doubled on April 15.
On the other hand, the government and the High Command of the Armed Forces had difficulties in "healing the wound" left by the revolt of the colonels. The initial of the mobilizations.
### Amnesty
Nevertheless, soon after, Noboa and his minister of Defence asked Congress to approve a political amnesty for all the accused. The turnabout reflected the continued restlessness inside the Armed Forces, especially the Army.
In this atmosphere, the government negotiated a new letter of intent with the International Monetary Fund. As one might easily anticipate, this letter contained promises to privatize the state petroleum companies, electricity and telephony, as well as social security. Specifically, the letter of intent fixed the application of an austerity package that included increases in domestic gas, fuels and electricity.
In June, prices are to go up by 60%, as against 20% in October and another 20% in December.
Also, it was laid down that the fund from the international credits would have to be used to complete the "banking rescue", and to capitalize the private banks that, having failed, have been administered by the State. Once adjusted, the banks will again be delivered into the hands of private capital. • •In these conditions, it was hardly sur-
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prising that the dialogues entered into by the government with the CONAIE (National Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities) and other social organizations broke down: the government's commitments were evasive and ultimately of small account.
### Coup rumors
Meanwhile, rumors circulated about the imminence of a military coup. Two coups, in fact: on the one hand, a rerun of January 21; on the other, a counterstroke by the right, alarmed by the social resistance that continues to frustrate its political plans.
In short, the conflicts that led to the mobilizations of January had not in the least attenuated. Since then, strikes and mobilizations of health workers, teachers, public employees and peasants had exploded. And the social atmosphere had received a jolt from the presidential announcement that the economic measures would be introduced after the elections.
So the May elections could not be contained within the simple framework of a renovation of the local governments, in spite of the efforts made by the main traditional parties. By necessity they expressed the social consciousness located in the fights against neoliberalism, privatization, dollarization, the rise in the cost of living, impoverishment, corruption and the austerity package.
For that reason, the main electoral upheavals happened in the areas where a greater popular participation in the uprising of January 21 had taken place: the mountain range and Amazonia.
The Social Christian right and the Populist Roldosista Party (of ex-presidents Febres Cordero and Bucaram, respectively) maintained their ideological and political control on the population of the coast and they alone shared the mayorships and the provincial prefectures in that region.
The Social Christians gained the mayorship of Guayaquil with Jaime Nebot, Febres Cordero's dauphin, but the Roldosistas obtained four of the five provincial prefectures. In this panorama, the only exception was the triumph of the candidate of the Democratic Popular Movement (MPD, ex-Maoist) for the mayorship of the small city of Emeralds (in the province of the same name, located on the border with Colombia).
In the mountains and the east, on the
OLICH
G. 0.5.2
contrary, the big loser was the Popular Democracy (Christian Democrats, the party of the recently dismissed Mahuad; they lost the mayorship of Quito, which they had held for 12 years. Quito, especially in the popular districts, turned to the candidate of the Democratic Left, general Paco Moncayo.
Moncayo, ex-head of the joint command of the Armed Forces, was a deputy during the January 21 uprising, and he and general René Yandún were the only parliamentarians to endorse the rising. Congress dismissed them and the public prosecutor requested that they be tried. Yandún, also a candidate for the Democratic Left in these selections, gained the prefecture of the province of Carchi, bordering Colombia.
### Triumph
On the other hand, the Democratic Left obtained less posts than it had won in the elections of 1996. The reason for this was the growth experienced by Pachakutik. This movement, related to the Conaie, won a triumph without precedent.
With still partial results, it obtained 5 provincial prefectures, 3 in the mountain range and two in the east, and will obtain between 15 and 23 mayorships, distributed, also, in the Andean and Amazonian provinces. Still more, two indigenous activists who participated actively in the January rising were chosen as mayor of Guaranda, in the province of Bolivar, and prefect of Cotopaxi.
However, in the provinces of Cañar
Ecuador * and Azuay, what was noticeable was the high vote obtained by the alliance between the MPD and Socialismo, which won the prefecture of Canar and the mayorship of its capital, Azogues.
In Azuay, although the prefecture was retained by the Popular Democracy, and the mayorship by Nuevo Pais, the biggest increase was that of the MPD-PSE alliance. Finally, broad center left alliances including the Democratic Left, Pachakutik, MPD, Socialismo and Nuevo País obtained the mayorship of the Andean cities of Ibarra, Ambato and Riobamba.
### Polarization
To sum up: the May 21 elections reflected the social and political polarization that January 21 had shown in a more explosive way, and it located it as a regional fracture. So, when on the night of Thursday May 25 the government announced the economic measures, these were much less drastic than what it had previously announced
Although the price of petrol was raised, the price of gas remains frozen for at least three months, and wage increases of up to 60% were announced. We will see if this succeeds in deactivating the social mobilization against dollarization, privatization and poverty.
We are about to see what steps the right will take. Each step, it appears, takes us closer to confrontation. * Juan Adolfo Montenegro is a leader of Socialist Democracy (Ecuadorian section of the Fourth International) International Viewpoint #323 July-August 2000 17
"We are tied to the pain of the people"
Ecuadorian government be to that?
Governing is not difficult if it is done on the basis of what most of the people want. The problems appear when the governors do not listen to the majority and act for the benefit of elites, that is why uprisings and popular protests like in Ecuador and other Latin American countries take
FOR Lucio Gutiérrez, leader of the colonels who supported the January 21 indigenous rebellion against the government of ex-president Jamil Mahuad, the results of the recent provincial and municipal elections show the support of Ecuadorians for the insurrectionists. He is currently detained but when free intends to continue his military career. In this interview given to Kintto Lucas of Inter Press Service he criticizes the repressive role of some Latin American armies.
pace. The great national problems must be resolved by the people. On the installation of the base at Manta, the acceptance of the Colombia Plan, the polarization system, and even the signature of peace with Peru, these should be settled through means of a plebiscite. Together with many comrades we thing that Ecuador does not have to get involved in Colombia's internal war because it is a problem of a brother coun-
INTERVIEW
• WHAT is your balance sheet of the Ecuadorian people have not been fulfilled recent municipal and provincial elections in Ecuador?
The result is a clear demonstration that the Ecuadorian people want a change in the forms of governing and in their majority agreed with the desire for justice and equity expressed in the rebellion of January 21. In Quito, general Paco Moncayo gained practically double the votes of the candidate of the Democracia Popular party. The Pachakutik movement, which belongs to the Conaie, with little economic infrastructure or electoral propaganda won various prefectures (provincial governorships) and many mayorships. All this shows that the people approve the national effort to give a new orientation to Ecuadorian politics.
In Venezuela Hugo Chávez became leader of the country some years after carrying out a rebellion that, although is not comparable, has some similarity with that which you led on January 21. What do you think of that process?
I believe that both movements have a few similarities and quite a few differences. One was military while ours was originated by a social base, which united us with the indigenous people and the different social sectors in their legitimate demands. In Venezuela confrontations with deaths occurred, ours was absolutely peaceful because we were not willing to fire a single shot. There they did not change the government, here we have, and a new hope for the country has been born. Lamentably the expectations of the 18 International Viewpoint #323 July-August 2000 because the same form of governing persists, benefiting a few bankers to the detriment of 85 percent of the poor. The similarity is in that both rebellions were against corruption, the main enemy of the Latin American democracies. The crisis in Venezuela has been very severe.
• Passing to another country, but again speaking of the military. A few days ago sectors linked to general Lino Oviedo tried to carry out a coup d'etat in Paraguay. What do you think of that?
A fundamental difference between the Ecuadorian armed forces and those in the rest of Latin America is that we have a great integration with the more marginalized people and within this with the indigenous peoples, with whom we have worked in multiple projects of development. We are tied to the pain of the people, we did not go to help them only in the case of catastrophe as some Armed Forces do. Also it has much to do with our training, in which the solidarity principle is accentuated. In addition in our schools for training officials and volunteers we studied the national problems with a vision based on shared, common solutions. That marks a difference with other more elitist Armed Forces, who repress the people when they should be on its side.
• With the base of Manta given to the US army and the implementation of the Colombia Plan many fear that Ecuador will become involved in the internal conflict of another country. What should the attitude of the try sufficiently sovereign to resolve it. If Ecuador becomes involved in the Colombia Plan it can become a new Vietnam and it would be obeying foreign interests.
• If we analyzed the facts of January 21 and subsequent events it seems that you did not manage to fulfill your objectives. Was it a defeat?
No, because there are many positive things. Now the people knows it has the right to rise against oppressive and corrupt governments, and to overthrow those who do not fulfill the popular mandate, because that is part of democracy. Also the self-esteem of the country rose. Our youth was asleep and the social movements were disunited. Now a unity of these sectors has been created, and the university population has woken up. Another positive fact was to bring down a bad government. Hopefully the new one fulfills the expectations of the country, although only four months old until now it has not done so. Also our national identity was awakened. Considering all that it was not a defeat but a civic victory.
• Would you accept being described as a leftist?
No, because I do not agree with being described through predetermined concepts. Our ideology has deep national roots and fundamentally it is based on the solidarity and the ways of coexistence that our indigenous peoples have constructed in centuries of existence. It is this ideology that drives us to change the structural injustices of our country so that one day the poor are privileged.*
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