Some notes on the national situation
International Viewpoint #324 September-October 2000
Philippines * country. His slogans from day one up to the present of providing food security, shelter, job security and livelihood have remained in words. These are evident in the July 24, 2000 State of the Nation Address where Estrada again for the second time repeated the same slogans, this time packaging them in the Mindanao con-
THIS is the first of the three parts of Some Notes on the National
Situation by the Revolutionary Workers' Party of the Philippines
(RPMP). This was delivered in August 2000 by a representative of the
RPMP Leadership in the last National RPMP Youth and Students
Conference somewhere in the Visayas. The document has been shortened for space reasons.
THE Philippines today is seriously
Tense he co bare armortal.
crisis. These two have symbiotically affected each other causing the intensification of the crisis by the day. The economic situation has been very bleak, seeing no light at the end of the tunnel, until the end of the year. The Mindanao crisis has been playing a major role in the intensification of the national crisis. The handling of the Estrada Administration of the situation has even caused more problems than a short or long term solution.
There has never been a time in the country's history (except in the last days of the dictatorship) that considerable numbers of the ruling class have acted as one in questioning the capacity of a current
Administration to effectively govern.
Even the church hierarchy (both the
Catholic and the Protestant) has been consistently raising questions and more and more resistance in the methods of Estrada in handling the affairs of the nation, especially the Mindanao problem. Obviously, the US policy makers have been on guard on the causes and effects of the continuous thinning out of the support of the masses to the Estrada Administration.
Meanwhile, the broadest section of the masses, especially the workers, peasants, semi-proletariat and even the rank and file of the private and public servants have been the hardest hit by such a crisis. The impact of the program of globalization making the government more and more helpless and more repressive, has caused a continuing increase in unemployment and underemployment (contractualization, subcontractualization....) Land conversions have continuously displaced the peasants and the agricultural workers adding to the number of millions of reserved labor force and creating a situation of vulnerability of exploitation by the employers.
The converging effects of globalization policies on privatization, liberalization and de-regularization have caused the continuous trade deficit, devaluation of the country's currency and increase in the rate of inflation. The economic fundamentals which made the country withstand the Asian Financial Crisis in the second half of 1997 have been weakened by the mismanagement. Such a phenomenon has made the Philippine economy one of the weakest in East Asia.
The current situation in the country provides an excellent opportunity for all progressive and revolutionary groups and Parties to be with the masses in their struggle for social reforms. A genuine revolutionary group or Party can provide correct political leadership on the mass struggle, the direction of which is to further weaken the machineries of the reactionary state and its main patron, the US imperialist.
The present condition in the country is favorable for raising the democratic and anti-imperialist struggle into a higher level. The role of the working class, the peoples and the other sectors within and outside the country should be defined Their capacity to lead and influence the direction of the struggle should be built up. Strong linkages to genuine international movement should be strengthened as well.
Some Trends in the Economic and Political Development of the
Country
Two years after Estrada was elected into the presidency, there has been no clear, coherent and comprehensive program on economic development in the text e.g. making Mindanao the food basket of the country, having a fresh start from Mindanao, etc.
The economy is currently mismanaged from top to bottom. Almost all the cronies during the Marcos period are back to power regaining/reclaiming their lost or sequestered businesses and opportunities. Today, they have not only got back their businesses and wealth, they have even expanded them, thanks to Estrada's presi dency. These neo-cronies have already monopolized almost all the vital industries in the country from plastic, food and beverages, real estate, communication, water and electricity and transportation to banking. They have even dared to manipulate the stock market through inside trading but they did it without finesse so that they were exposed immediately. (The case of Best World Resources where close friends of Estrada were involved in the manipulation of the stock market in the country.) Such blatant economic mismanagement of the economy has been the main reason for the big decrease of the investment inflow. As of June this year, investment was worth USS500 million only compared to $1 billion worth in the same period last year. At the end of the first week of August 2000, the investment inflow decreased up to seventy percent (70%) - US$300 millions -the lowest in the year. This means that the investors (foreign and local have lost their confidence of fair play in our stock market.
Locally, this phenomenon makes the other members of the ruling elite not favored by Estrada and even the church hierarchy to cry foul: "the playing field in business is not level". Even international institutions controlled by the capitalists like the ADB and World Bank have criticized the Estrada administration for not providing a climate for fair business dealing hence not attracting new business players in the country. Moreover, in the study made by the above mentioned banks, it shows that in the Philippines, the gap between the rich and the poor has been widening. Concretely, the same study says that in the Philippines 15 families control
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42 International Viewpoint #324 September-October 2000
* Philippines 55% of the country's businesses.
Globalization policies such as deregularization, privatization and liberalization have created excellent opportunities for these families to expand their businesses to all types/sector of business almost without limit thus putting the small and medium industries out of the game. Almost all of them have even expanded beyond the national boundaries without a problem with a little help from their friend in the presidency.
Downtrending of economy
There is a continuous downtrending of the economy as shown in the following indicators:
Gross National Product (GNP) - The government has been targeting a 4.5% growth for this year. As of July 2000 the
Demonstration against the war in Mindanao so-called economic experts of the Estrada Administration have been saying that the maximum that the country's GNP this year will be at 3.9%. Considering the almost 2% annual growth rate of the country's population and the big role played by the exported human resources in the economy, the so-called 3.9% GNP growth rate will mean almost nothing. In real terms, this means an almost zero growth rate of the Philippine's economy this year.
The current currency exchange (between the peso and the dollar) fluctuates between Php44.60 to Php45.50 to a dollar. Economic analysts are saying that before the end of the year (2000) the exchange rate will go nearer to Php50.00 to a dollar.
The government attributes this to the following reasons:
Capital outflow has been heavy because higher interest rate in other countries are becoming attractive.
Devaluation of the currency attracts more foreign investors.
It encourages more remittances from overseas Filipino contract workers to their families for the much needed dollars.
In real terms, the continuous devaluation of the peso means an automatic allocation from the annual budget to the payment of a bigger interest of the debt instead of allocating more on social services and peoples' welfare.
In concrete terms of economic activities, the devaluation of the pesos against the dollar means increase an in the prices of imported materials for production. This is worst because almost all the manufacturing enterprises in the country are dependent on the imported raw materials in doing their businesses. Higher prices of goods produced locally can only be the option of these small and medium enterprises or actually they can close shops The first option will always put the local businesses at the mercy of the foreign competitors which can always have a lower price and the second option will trigger a domino effect which means an increase in unemployment.
Inflation and unemployment
The inflation rate has been steadily increasing, based on the conservative estimate of the government. The inflation rate as of July 2000 is 4.3% compared to 3.9% last July of 1999. The bases used by the government for the increase of the inflation rate do not yet include the effects caused by continuous or monthly increase of prices of the petroleum products and the impact of the devaluation of the pesos as against the dollar.
The purchasing power of the peso has been decreasing rapidly. In less than a year's time it decreased into almost five centavos which means that a product worth Php100.00 last year costs Php105.00 this year. Worst still is that almost all the prices of basic goods have increased while the basic salaries of the workers from both the urban and rural areas have not increased at all. It is estimated that the country's inflation rate will reach double digits before the end of the year because of the abovementioned reasons. As of the month of July
2000, the unemployment rate has reached 13.9% and it is still increasing by the day.
In the more than 30 million labor force in the country, almost 14% of these are unemployed or almost seven millions of the working age do not have work. At the rate where the small and medium businesses are closing shop and the onesided employment policies of globalization, the number of unemployed will surely increase. Added to this is half a million labor force from the rank of the students and the out of school youth who have reached the employable age.
Since only a small number of this new labor force can be absorbed by the country's economy, they add to the unemployment and become part of the available reserve force of the country who become potential victims of exploitation of employers within and outside the country.
Moreover, as of the first week of August, there are more than ten thousand workers who have been on strike because of unfair labor practices of the employers who are usually favored by the Government and the Philippine military. The above-mentioned workers were later on laid off by their companies. Presently, 22% of the labor force is underemployed, which means that they work on rotation, undertimed and therefore underpaid. More than 30% of the total population of the country is classified as living below the poverty line. This refers to those who can not afford the basic necessities of life, e.g. food, shelter, clothes, health, etc.
This means that out of the more than 70 million of the country's population, almost
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personalistic. He wants to get things done Administration against the MILF has put
International Viewpoint #324 September-October 2000
18 million of the are living in a subhuman condition. In fact in the Autonomous
Region for Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)
57.9% of the people are living miserably or below the poverty line.
It is therefore, not circumstancial that it is in this region where there is an ongoing war between the Government and the
MILF and other revolutionary groups.
Obviously, there are socio-economic reasons for the revolutionary groups or the MILF to easily thrive in the region. However, instead of addressing the problems, the government opted for an all out war.
As of July 2000, the country's budgetary deficit has reached 67 billions of pesos which already exceeded the Php60 billions set by the IMF/WB as a limit or as manageable. The extra (surplus) expenses are incurred by the government to finance its total war policy in Mindanao or to be exact in the area of ARMM - the highest percentage of people living below the poverty line. Billions of pesos have also been lost by the government thru widespread graft and corruption. In fact, even government officials themselves are admitted that between 10 - 20% of the total government budget was lost because of the graft and corruption practices within the government.
Estrada's style of government
Estrada's methods and styles of governance is best described as a combination of the traditional political patronage before the Martial Law period (pre 1972) and the authoritarian Marcos style. Almost unlimited favors are given to those who are supportive of his presidency and his projects. He can even lend the institution of his office for his friends' benefits. In return, his friends (read as cronies) will do almost anything to please their Oftentimes, the President understands the national interests as the interests of his cronies. However, those who dare to cross those path or oppose his projects will suffer the consequence. Even those who did not support his presidency in 1998 elections are still made to suffer the consequence of their act. This means that if you are in business, chances are, you are going to lose your business or if you are in politics, your province or constituencies will suffer as well.
Estrada's styles of governance is too
"hands on". He does not need a political party as a partner in governance. He wants to show especially to the masses that he is personally with them through thick and thin. That's why when he declared the all out war policies in Mindanao, he was there, wearing a fatigue uniform with his soldiers. Now, he wants to be there in Mindanao to personally see that rehabilitation and development works are implemented. This can have positive points but as in the concrete events, whenever he is not around, his men and women cannot do anything.
People who are both identified and not identified with the camp of the Estrada
Administration have been floating/entertaining ideas that the current administration cannot possibly finish his term due to the convergence of events - the economic crisis has become uncontrollable, the Mindanao problem has intensified and the international situation provides excellent conditions for Estrada's ouster. The Role of the Mindanao Crisis
In the second State of the Nation Address of the President last July 24, 2000, the war in Mindanao and its development had occupied almost thirty (30%) percent of the President's prepared speech. In fact, he promised to have a fresh start of his second year of Presidency in Mindanao. It is believed that Estrada's popular rating improved because of his all out war policy in Mindanao.
However, the current phase of war in Mindanao mainly between the AFP and the MILF can be in the long term detrimental to the country's political and economic situation in general. It can drain the already scarce and depleted resources of the government by not only engaging in very unproductive military expenditures but also very destructive military adven-
History has proven many times that the solution of the Mindanao problem cannot be military but must involve a comprehensive political settlement between the Moro people led by the MILF and the government of the Republic of the Philippines. The settlement includes the concrete answer to the right to self-determination of this minority nationality which will be mutually discussed and agreed upon by both parties and the peoples of Mindanao.
The "all out war" policy of the Estrada
Philippines * him in a political quick sand - where the more he moves, the more he sinks deeper.
The AFP's conquest of the main camp of the MILE, Camp Abubakar, has definitely not ended the war in Mindanao, unless the main objective of the "all out war" of
President Estrada is just conquering all the
MILF camps and not defeating their cause.
Currently, it has been the MILF dictating the phase and the terms of war, having converted itself into a highly mobile guerilla force. This has resulted in heavy casualties for the AFP.
### Paramilitary revival
The AFP strength will be spread out thinly and cannot maintain its clearing or occupying of so many areas at the same time. That's why the Estrada administration is trying its best to revive the Citizens Armed Forces Geographical Units (CAFGU). These kind of paramilitary units have been banned for a long time because of their rampant human rights violation against the civilian populace. Now, these militarist generals of Estrada have been creating a situation in Mindanao to justify the revival of the CAFGUs like blaming the MILFs for all the attacks against the civilians without even bothering to conduct or wait for the results of the investigation.
President Estrada is planning to station thirty five thousand (35,000) of the CAFGUs in Mindanao. Their role is to maintain certain areas against the attack of the MILF. According to Estrada and his generals, using the CAFUs is the cheapest way to continue his all out war. The biggest irony of it all is that the government and the AFP propagandists has been bragging about the already defeated, demoralized, splintered and leaderless MILF after the capture of the main camp (Abubakar). And yet, the same propagandists within the direct intervention of President Estrada, are moving heaven and hell to get the congress's approval to act on it. They have recruited and deployed several thousand CAFGUs in Mindanao.
Opposition to the revival of CAFGUs has been widespread coming from the legislators (opposition parties), the church, human rights movements and the business sectors. Estrada's response to them are more harassments tagging them as MILF supporters and therefore to be arrested and persecuted
The shadows of a fascist regime are
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already falling upon the peoples of July 2000, the AFP has already released
44 International Viewpoint #324 September-October 2000
* Philippines Mindanao. We expect to have more on this in the coming months, especially when the Special or Emergency Power which Estrada has been asking from the Congress is approved. In fact, one has only to look at what had happened last July 24, 2000 during the peoples' demonstration and protests against the State of Nation Address of the President. The demonstrators were dispersed in a very fascist manner as if the country is under a martial rule. Leaders were arrested and many of the demonstrators were physically assaulted by the police.
The current handling of the Mindanao crisis has concretely shown or exposed the different factions within the Estrada Administration having completely different methods and approaches. They have completely disagreed on dealing with the MILF (at least at the initial stage - up to the last quarter of 1999) in particular and the handling of peace and development in general. Totally disregarding historical events and lessons, the military approach has prevailed in solving the non-military problems of Mindanao.
The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) has a historical and important role with the MNLF and the Bangsa Moro struggle. In fact, it (OIC) identified its foreign policies and projects with it. In the recent OIC - IFMC (International Foreign Ministers' Conference) in Kuala Lumpur last July 2000, it warned both the Government of the Republic of the Philippines and the MILF to stop the war in Mindanao. This started the internationalization of the struggle of the Moro led by the MILF.
All out war
The "all out war" approach of the
Estrada's administration against the MILF and which in a later stage it also declared against the Communist Party of the Philippines and New People's Army (after the peace talks had bogged down) has been a recycled "total war" approach of the more than 20,000 high powered firearms/rifles to the civilians, mostly Christian vigilantes.
More heavy weaponry is expected to be deployed in Mindanao with the US$110 million dollar military loan which Estrada had begged from his US sponsors on the last Presidential working visit to the USA
The MILF has deployed more than four divisions of the BIAF in the Central Mindanao area. This is still excluding their armed militias or the Internal Security Force which are deployed in all municipalities they have influenced. At present, these big formations have been regrouped into smaller formations in order to be highly mobile while effectively conducting their guerilla warfare. When the fall or capture of their main Camp (Abubakr) became imminent, they transferred their valuable military hardware and equipment into far and safer grounds. In fact, they only left a token force to delay the final assault on the main Camp.
The government has been spending (on average) twenty million pesos daily on its war efforts against the MILF. This means that since March up to June this year, the government had already spent almost Php2.5 billions, bigger than the annual budget of some departments. Now, it has been pressuring the Congress to augment its (military budget by another Php1.4 billion.
In contrast, the MILF/BIAF has only their firm commitment and religious obligation to answer the call of JIHAD - the "Holy" War to defend their Homeland. Their five years' plan for consolidation, expansion and self-reliant efforts in foods, logistics, finance and military hardware has been paying off. These efforts had been boosted by the arrival of three shiploands of high caliber weapons (machine guns and mortars).
In terms of military strategies, the AFP has been prepared/trained directly by the
US (thru the VFA or Visiting Forces
Agreement) to confront the BIAF in a conventional (positional) warfare. Thus, the
(Global Positioning System) to guide their movements and directions.
On the other hand, in guerilla warfare, there is no defined battle ground or front or camps. The guerilla selects the time and place of its attack and surely the satellite will have to produce hundreds of photos to monitor the movements of the guerilla. As early as the first quarter of this year, the MILF/BIAF has decided to change its strategy from positional/conventional to highly mobile guerilla warfare. Their slogan of "victory or martyrdom" has been practiced not in defending their camps but in defending their cause and the whole areas of the Bangsamoro.
The role of the OIC
Now, the battlefield of the ongoing war between the AFP and the MILF/BIAF has been expanded onto the international front. The positive attention given by the latest ICFM of the OIC in Kuala Lumpur has implicitly put the MILF into a belligerent status and equal to that of the GRP.
The seemingly joint efforts of the GRP delegation and the MNLF led by Governor Nur Misuari have maybe delayed the formal process of recognition of the MILF as observer in the OIC. The OIC resolution of 1977 (also in Kuala Lumpur) stated that it recognizes the MNLF as the sole and legitimate representative of the Moro people. Since then, the MNLF sits as an observer in all the OIC meetings. The OIC is obligated to consummate this process with the MNLF. Its decision (July 2000) of sending a Committee of Six plus two to observe and assess the peace agreement signed by the GRP and the MNLF in 1996 will be part of such a process.
The move of Estrada in setting the deadline for peace talks with the MILF last June 30, 2000 will now be best understood by the abovementioned events. First, to pre-empt MILF's positioning in the July
OIC's meeting. Second, to please and solidify his hold and influence on the militarist faction of his administration in order to remove the basis of the deadline of the
US Imperialist in September. And thirdly,
Aquino Regime.
The AFP has mobilized more than five divisions (out of the total eight divisions
• a brigades, the or of such strategy, which the country has) of the Army, all of the marines (3 to 4 brigades), the elite scout rangers and all the PNP already deployed in the regions affected and more than 20,000 CAFGUs of the total 35,000 they plan to deploy in Mindanao. As of actual planting of the Philippine Flag after they "capture" an MILF/BIAF is more than symbolic. It has been an integral part
In the actual field battle - the US thru its agents provide the AFP with satellite photos of the camps and the movements of the MILF/BIAF. And every platoon leader of the main force of the AFP has a GPS to consummate the first and second points, he pursued his July-August working visit to the USA to personally assure the US policymakers that he can handle the situation in the country and in Mindanao in particular.
He needed the "all out war" to weaken the MILF in its bargaining position in the
International Viewpoint #324 September-October 2000
OIC. But above all he needed the all out war to increase his popularity net rating
Abu Sayyaf and the MILF are not dissimilar. Now, that this scheme has been
Philippines * political groups, some of them have shown a strong tendency of using the situation for because at the early state the government explosed, the Abu Sayyaf has been con- money making activities. propagandists were successful in packaging the MILF as the "bad guy"
At present, Estrada wants this situation to continue because he lays down three impossible conditions to continue the peace talks with the MILF. First, the MILF will drop its secessionist bid. Second, the MILF will stop all its atrocities and criminal activities. And third, the MILF will lay down their arms.
With these conditions and directives, one can't help but think whether Estrada knows what he is talking or he does not want the peace talks to continue because he now begins to believe the lines of his own propaganda - that the MILF is already a spent force. The "Muslim-Christian" conflict
The intensification of the so-called "Muslim-Christian" conflict can easily be traced to the overt and covert activities instigated by the psy ops machineries of the AFP. Recently, a series of ambushes and massacres were inflicted on the Christians in Mindanao and the AFP is always quick to pinpoint the MILF as the perpetrators. The usual reason they give is that they were done by the Moro-Muslims and therefore they must be MILF. And what usually follows is that the Christians want arms to protect themselves from the Moro. And the government is always ready and benevolent to provide them with arms.
And as a result of this kind of packaging, one can see that in almost all the towns of Mindanao (aside from the above mentioned governor's province) the Christians have organized and armed themselves against the so-called enemy - the MILF
The re-appearance of the Abu Sayyaf almost at the time when Estrada and his generals have started their "all out war" in Mindanao was not accidental. Aside from the instrumental role of the agents of the AFP in the founding of this extremist and terrorist group, it has been playing a direct and active role in creating an antiMoro/Muslim sentiment among Christians. Thus again justifying the arming of themselves to protect themselves against the Moro.
Initially, the AFP and its handlers of propaganda machineries had been successful in packaging and projecting that the centrating on anti-social activities like kidnapping for ransom. They have been successful in this activity in projecting themselves not only nationally but also internationally and reaping a harvest of more than two hundred million pesos.
The kidnappings of the Abu Sayyaf have indeed contributed a lot in the deterioration of the national economy and therefore lead one to think whether their AFP handlers have lost their control over this extremist and criminal group or these are still part of the whole plan to project the unreasonableness of the Moro people to the whole world.
The kidnappings have been done with total impunity and ransoms have been paid openly, although it seems that only the government negotiators do not know about the ransom. Kidnappings have been done in different stages with different sets of people involved in the process. The process includes a part of negotiation, keeping the hostages, liaisoning, etc. Ransom money is divided based on the participation of local government officials and military in the whole process is not impossible as shown in the past, they too get their own share of the ransom money.
The handling of the Abu Sayyaf and its kidnapping activities, is a reflection of how the Estrada Administration is governing or managing the affairs of the country. Graft and Corruption do not select the place and kind and time within the present government.
### Peace initiatives
The proliferation of peace initiatives and movements in and outside Mindanao have in the main, neutralized to a certain degree, the intrigues and animosities among and between the Muslims and the Christians. Problems have been experienced on the level of establishing genuine broad alliance among the different political groups.
But in the main, the RPMP leadership in Mindanao has provided political leadership in these initiatives and movements. Even the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) has never genuinely initiated (at least in the early stage) a comprehensive plan for peace mobilizations aside from the media offensives that they have been doing. With regards to other
As things stand now, the Estrada Administration is facing converging problems heightened by the Mindanao situation. He has been under pressure from within and outside the government and even by his patron to decisively face the problems and take an honorable exit in Mindanao. His signing of Executive Order 261, creating the Mindanao Coordinating Committee has met strong opposition from within his group and more so from his critics.
The more he makes a smokescreen of fast tracking economic development, the more he is exposed in his real intent in Mindanao and the manner in which he handles the issues of peace and development. He does not need an emergency power to fast track or hasten development in any part of the country. Even if his intention is to bypass former President Ramos and Misuari's SPCPD, he can do this more effectively when he does not expose himself.
This month, the OIC will send a Committee of six plus two to do the fact finding mission on how the 1996 Peace Agreement between the MNLF and the GRP has fared. Definitely, the agenda on the MILF will not be excluded from this fact finding mission. The MILF leadership is proposing that the next round of peace talks will be held in a neutral country which was rejected immediately by the GRP representatives.
The MILF made mention about the government's harassments and crackdown as reason for insisting that the peace talks will be held outside the country. The GRP tries to project an image of being on top of the situation in the talks and wants to issue a safe conduct pass to the MILF negotiators. At present, the GRP has not responded to the no pre-conditioned peace talks put forward by the MILF. It is a political stand still.
Meanwhile, the international initiatives of the MILF have been reaping a bountiful harvest. The implicit belligerent status accorded it by the IFCM-OIC in Kuala Lumpur will surely be maximized. Based on this, the MILF can even set up a government in exile in any of the friendly members of the powerful OIC. When this happens, the problems faced by the Estrada Administration will be worse than those faced by the Marcos dictatorship. *
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* Southeast Asia