PHILIPPINES
Laurel, is the head of one of the 'main families' in country. He the was a long-time supporter of Marcos and the regime of martial law, who over the
Election will not solve the last few years has gone into opposition.
He was nominated as presidential candidate for UNIDO in June 1985 crisis of the dictatorship and has never tried to hide his overwhelming personal ambition.
Next, a whole number of groups have rallied around Corazon 'Cory' Aquino, who belongs to the important Cofuangco family, very close to the president and his wife Imelda, but
THE PRESIDENTIAL elections in the Philippines are due to take place on February 7. That is if Ferdinand Marcos, the current president, does not draw back at the last minute and cancel the whole operation.
These elections were intended to allow Marcos to legitimise his dictatorial rule, which is now being questioned more and more inside the country and abroad. Marcos is doing anything to win by using the enormous political, financial and military resources of the state. But this recourse to fraud and intimidation could backfire and undermine the regime still further.
The 'Marcos system' set up in 1972 following the introduction of martial law, is breaking up. A victory for the dictatorship in these elections could very well prove to be a pyrrhic one.
PAUL PETITJEAN
For the mass of the people in the archipelago, 1985 has been a year dominated by a sometimes acute deterioration in the standard of living, as on Negros, the island of sugar.
In the world of politics, the year
1985 has been marked by rumours and counter-rumours about the possibility of presidential elections. According to the electoral calendar, they should have taken place in 1987 and
Marcos had, more than once, asserted that they would not be brought forward. However, in November last year, suddenly he announced that the elections would be held in January
1986, then only two months away!
They were finally put off to February
7, 1986, in order to calm protests in the Philippines and the United
States at such violent haste.
Marcos' objectives are clear. He must recapture the semblance of support for his popular personal and dictatorial regime. With growing pressure on him from the US administration, which is very worried about the lack of response from the regime to the crisis, he knows his days are numbered. This is also true because of his health: he suffers from a recurring kidney disease which periodically threatens his life. It is a taboo subject which political life in punctuates the country. The return of the opposition leader, Benigno 'Ninoy' Aquino, and his assassination in August 1983, could probably be explained by the
International Viewpoint 10 February 1986 fact that Marcos was very ill and could have succumbed at any minute.
The regime is very sensitive on this point. To such an extent that when a kidney specialist who was looking after Marcos was kidnapped and then murdered in November last year, everyone thought that he had been killed under orders for having talked too much about the president's health. At the end of January, 1986, in the full swing of the electoral campaign, Marcos seems once again to be very weak. The three poles of the opposition
In announcing the surprise elections, Marcos obviously hoped to take advantage of the disorganisation of the opposition forces. Throughout 1985, direct or indirect negotiations had been taking place between the different opposition groups to prepare an eventual electoral challenge. But by the autumn these negotiations had ended in failure with political differences and presidential ambitions playing a contributory role. Three main poles arose out of these discussions.
The most conservative and traditional sections of the opposition bourgeoisie are grouped around the United Nationalist Democratic Organisation (UNIDO). Their leader, Salvador "Doy' also the widow of 'Ninoy' Aquino, a dangerous challenger to Marcos, imprisoned for many years, sent into exile in the United States and then assassinated on his return to the country. A traditional politician, Benigno Aquino became the main pro-US opposition figure because of the repression he underwent. After the assassination of her husband, "Cory', formerly just a politician's wife, suddenly became a moral figure and, more than that, a moral alternative to the corruption of the Marcos dictatorship.
Very early on, 'Cory's' campaign was supported an informal coalition of various political groups. Several businessmen from Makati, the city" of Manila, who represent huge financial interests or are part of a 'modernist' bourgeoisie and have been penalised by the regime, which only favoured the president's cronies, are giving financial support to the election campaign.
The second opposition party in the national assembly, the PDP-Laban (Philippine Democratic Party - Lakas ng Bayan) has supported "Cory's' candidature from the beginning. This party has an important regional influence especially in the north of Mindanao island with Aquilino Pimentel. It is influenced by an underground movement, the 'soc dems' (Social Democrats) which came out of Jesuit circles and whose leadership is profoundly anti-communist. Since 'Ninoy's' assassination it has been attempting to make some links with the brother of the deceased, Agapito 'Butz' Aquino.
Very early on also, personalities of the independent nationalist left began to organise themselves in defence of 'Cory's' candidature.
The third pole of the opposition is a coalition of three of the mass popular opposition groups, called Bayan (Bagong Alyansang Makabayan — the New Patriotic Federation). It was launched in March, 1985 and held its first congress in May. The most important mass organisations are inside this coalition and include the trade-union confederation, KMU (Kilusang Mayo Uno-May 1 Movement), the Nationalist Alliance,
3
the peasant movement - KMP, the League of Filipino Students (LFS),
Bayan claims a million supporters who are members of affiliated organiBayan is the main popular opposi-
However, in May of last year and in the weeks that followed, a series of smaller groups supporting Bayan withdrew from it on a national level (it may have been different on a 'modernist' bourgeoisie from Makati left first and then 'Butz' and the 'soc competing organisation, Bandila (Flag).
It must be noted that the soc dem' current includes a left-wing element that is involved in mass work. This current, though not in Bayan, did not join Bandila.
In the weeks following the May 1985 congress, independent nationalist leaders, such as ex-Senator Jose Diokno and a movement like Kaakbay by Diokno but also left Bayan without joining Bandila.
On the level of the popular masses, Bayan, the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the New People's Democratic Front (NDF) represent a growing pole of attraction without any serious rival. But by the end of 1985, these forces seemed to be more divided than ever on the electoral level. Marcos must have been counting on this disintegration so that he could have an easy victory without too much obvious fraud.
On the eve of the closing date for the declaration of candidates, Salvador Laurel and Corazon Aquino managed to arrive at a last minute agreement: Laurel agreed to give up the candidature for president and to run for the vice-presidency and Aquino agreed to stand under the banner of UNIDO and not under that of the PDP-Laban.
present a candidate, calling for a boycott. Marcos was faced with a unitary candidate popular support and with a not inconsiderable convergence of opposition forces, however transient that convergence might be.
'Cory's' candidature has obvious weaknesses. As a symbol of morality, she has no experience or programme of government. The coalition supporting her is politically heterogeneous. But many observers, including porters of the regime itself, recognise that if free elections were to take place, Corazon Aquino would against Marcos. For years now the regime has been increasingly bankrupt. years of Marcos' personal rule (he was elected for the first time in 1965) is quite enough!
authority could outweigh the disadvantage of her lack of experience. is rife with 'Cory's' campaign is attracting huge nearly 300,000 in Davao. The call for a
The main revolutionary forces in the country (the CPP, the NPA and the NDF) have called for a boycott, as have the principal mass organisations like the KMU, the Nationalist Alliance and Bayan. For them the electoral dice are loaded as long as is in power, and the "Cory'Laurel ticket is bourgeois. Corazon Aquino's programme is opposed to theirs in particular with regard to the former's refusal to reject the expected agreement on the presence of military bases in the country up until
In 1984, a wide selection of forces from the left called for a boycott of the national in terms of mass mobilisations. But this was mitigated by electoral success. tions of the population, the aspiration to vote proved very strong.
The supporters of a boycott are today less numerous than in 1984. They do not seem to be mobilising massively and visibly for an active apparently preferring not to confront directly those sections of the population who want to use
'tactically' in order to get rid of Marcos. However, the boycott advocates remain convinced that once Marcos is re-elected, their refusal to promote electoral illusions will put them in a good position to seize the initiative again in the social and revolutionary struggles.
The left is divided. Most of the nationalist and independent Marxist left have, in effect, decided to situate
'Cory's' campaign in order to attempt to channel, from inside, the people's aspiration for change which has consolidated around 'Ninoy's' widow.
This is the position of two trade union affiliates of the KMU - the National Federation of Labour (NFL) and NUHWRAIN (hotels) and also of Kaakbay. This is also the position of four 'ex-senators', nationalists and progressives: Jose Diokno, Jovito Salonga (who came back from exile in the in January Lorenzo Tanada and Ambrosio Padilla.
Tensions are beginning to emerge within Bayan. Lorenzo Tanada, chairperson of Bayan, and Ambrosio vice-president, respectively, taken leave of resigned from the organisation. And it seems that Bayan-Mindanao has got involved in the election campaign in support of 'Cory' aspiration for democratic rights including the end supporting a boycott insist free elections are while Marcos is still in power. The supporters of participation believe that the opportunity should be seized to aggravate the regime's crisis and that the electoral terrain must not be left to the bourgeois opposition.
UNIDO is using the opportunity of these elections to make its mark. 'Doy' Laurel might have concede the candidature for president to 'Cory' but UNIDO's increased standing has allowed it to drag Corazon Aquino's campaign to the right. Marqos system running out of steam as his regime disintegrates. The backbone of the regime army. The officers of that army are between those who are close to Marcos and those who favour a reform of the regime. (2) The Reform AFP Movement (RAM) has launched a campaign entitled Kamalayan '86 (Consciousness favour of proper electoral
Of course, Marcos still controls the general staff, but, in order to prepare the elections 'thoroughly" he had to put General Ver back as the head of the armed latter had been charged with murder of Benigno Aquino and was finally acquitted after a show trial and despite US pressure. The judicial scandal represented by the acquittal of all those charged with murder helped to undermine the authority of the armed forces. 'Cory' has pledged to reopen the inquiry and has openly accused Marcos of
The mainstay of the Marcos regime has been its support from the United without fail 'and regardless of the suffering inflicted on the popular by an increasingly dictatorship. But the US government interview with Roland Simbule No 82, September 16, 1985. International Viewpoint 10 February 1986
is today aware of the complete stagnation of the regime and is concerned at the growth of communist forces.
Following Aquino's assassination in August 1983, Washington tried to impose reforms and a democratic opening on Marcos. The US administration was hoping in this way to overcome the crisis of the dictatorship by travelling the thin line of support for Marcos, so as not to be thrown into the deep unknown, whilst at the same time seeking to strengthen the bourgeois opposition so that it could eventually be integrated into the regime. Up until now the president's palace, much to Washington's displeasure, has firmly rejected this
The US administration and Congress is therefore currently divided on this issue. Jeane Kirkpatrick, former US ambassador to the UN and on the right of the right of the Republican Party, still asserts her unstinting support for Marcos. She believes that 'many countries in the world are worse governed than the Philippines. None is more important to the stability of the US, Japan and other independent nations in the Pacific.' (3)
On the other hand, Stephen Solarz, representative from New York, has been attacking the Marcos regime for several months and has managed to get an inquiry into the extent of the propertied investment of the Marcos family in the United States, thus threatening the Philippine president possibility of a huge financial scandal. Where is the international aid given to the Philippines going? The first results show that four properties in Manhattan worth 350 million dollars are connected with the Marcos family - and that is only the
As if by chance, researcher, Alfred McCoya, on the eve of the election has at last discovered in the archives of the US Army documents concernSecond World War. These documents show that the myth of Marcos as foremost anti-Japanese are indeed nothing more than a myth. But Marcos has built up his whole supposed exploits as a guerrilla with widely distributed comic-strip stories
The White House has been preparing itself for all eventualities in order to solve the Philippine crisis, including the possibility ditching this embarrassing president. In the end, however, according journalist Leslie H Gelb 'the administration has decided, however, not to push Mr Marcos from power by covert means although considered by some officials'.
International Viewpoint 10 February 1986
States from its old ally element of the strategy is waiting," the officials said. "Very soon"
they expect that Mr Marcos' health will force him to withdraw from the scene'. (4)
wait-and-see attitude could be seen as representing paralysis. But, in any case, US support is now ambiva-
The framework of the regime is
The Marcos regime works according to a system of patronage made up of thousands of channels through which financial 'manna', controlled by the regime, falls to the advantage of those who support the president and his wife, Imelda. But the economic crisis lies precisely here. The money running out and the financial institutions which have developed because of support from the state are having to be partially dismantled. men in opposition circles have begun to take up the initiative they have so long sought.
The lifeblood of the regime is the support or, at least, the benign tolerance of the Church in a country which hierarchy itself has become exasperated by the intransigence of the president and it is worried about possibility of power passing into the hands of the army. Through pastoral letters, the conference of bishops has let it be known to the people that in a secret ballot they according to conscience to favours the regime. They say, accept what you are offered but vote for the candidate you prefer. Election fraud expected
In this atmosphere of the end of an era, Marcos is trying once more to find the means to win an election. He is doing through control of the through threatening a coup d'etat if 'Cory' wins; through redbaiting (Benigno Aquino being suddenly transformed, to fit the bill, into the founder of the CPP); through corruption, electoral fraud and intimidation. For example Corazon Aquino's godchild, who was involved in the campaign was recently killed and mutilated, his thumb and forefinger, which form the 'L' of the Laban (combat group) being cut off.
days from the election, nine organisers of the 'Cory' campaign were
To monitor the ballot itself, the is hoping to mobilise the organisation which proved its worth in the 1984 elections: Namfrel (National Citizens Movement for Free Elections). Nobody believes in the impartiality of the official commission, Comelec, but the regime seems ready to surpass all previous records in relation to ballot-rigging.
This has already been noted in Washington, that Marcos would resort scale fraud is seriously by the Reagan administration and many US congress leaders.' administration has in order to make the right impression.
issuing decree forbidding any foreigner to go within fifty metres of the 90,000 polling booths across the country.
The regime's customary practice of well-established: 'election-related violence is certainly not new to the Philippines and has been a perennial problem along with
Switching of boxes after the polls close and prearranging official tally sheets before the votes are counted have also been prevalent in previous elections.' (6) The regime has also used the system of 'flying votes', putting one voting slip in several polling booths.
'school teachers who act as poll clerks have alleged many of them have been paid several hundred pesos officials to "ensure that the count reflects the proper results." Domestic helpers and drivers in Manila also report that they have been offered money to for President Ferdinand Marcos.' (7)
Cardinal Sin, the archbishop of Manila, has been forced to publically denounce the fraud, declaring on January 18, in a pastoral letter: 'there is a very sinister plot to frustrate the elections. 'Already we have seen, heard and read this and black propaganda some quarters opponents who are, on the other hand, deprived of adequate access to the media'. Sin warned that 'if a candidate wins by cheating, he can only be forgiven by God if he renounces the office he has obtained by fraud. 8)
Unfortunately it seems unlikely that Marcos will be deterred by the prospect of divine retribution. apparatus of fraud and intimidation
But instead of regime, the elections will only underline the crisis that it is going through.O
----- panel printed with this article -----
See also p 27 for more on the elections. See 'Far Eastern Economic Review, (FEER) of January 23, 1986, p 13. International 4. Herald Tribune', January 27, 1986, p 1. 'FEER', January 23, 1986, p 2 Guy Sacerdoti, 'FEER', January 30, 1986. Ibid Ibid. p 12. 5