SOUTH AFRICA / AROUND THE WORLD
October 12, 1992 contradictions can cause we need to remember that the August strike took place against an economic background that makes the whole philosophy of the SACCOLA/ COSATU agreement redundant. It should be recalled that the government's plan was to ensure a massive reentry of foreign investment through opening negotiations. On the basis of renewed "confidence" it also hoped that a lot of foreign financial aid would flow into social projects in the townships, calming popular expectations. In fact very little of all this has so far been seen. Worse still, the country has slid further into a recession made still worse by the drought that has struck some rural areas.
### Tide of bankruptcies
Bankruptcies rose by 37.7% in the first six months of 1992. An annual report from the Central Bank dated August 26 explains that the country may be into its longest recession since 1908. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has fallen for the third consecutive yearby 0.5% in 1991 and perhaps 2 or 2.5% this year. It is hard to attract foreign capital when South African firms themselves do not
On August 13 — two days after the announcement by the diamond monopoly De Beers of a 26% fall in results in the first six months of 1992 the - Johannesburg stock market fell by 101 points.4 Some banks, furthermore, have called for an agreement with the IMF on a structural adjustment programme. A Catch 22: In order to get the money to pay for socio-economic reforms and revive the domestic market the crisis needs to end, but economic shock treatment can only make the situation of the most deprived even worse.
That should be sufficient argument against any attempt to channel worker militancy into co-management schemes. The storm sweeping the economy leaves no room for social democratic or Keynesian projects and the bulk of the employers will continue to behave as before. There can be no other way out in a market economy driven by the profit motive and the needs of private accumu-
However, to understand the thinking at the top of the unions we have to recall that they have, in two years, swung from a socialist perspective to "market socialism", then to the "mixed economy" and then growth through co-responsibility. The ideological development has been headlong, propelled by the deterioration in the balance of forces and the world situation. These two latter factors have gone together with the growth of a union and political bureaucracy.
The ANC leadership retains sufficient prestige to mount big shows of force but with very restricted objectives. The inter18 extracts are published on page 17 shows view with Nelson Mandela from which International Viewpoint # 236 perfectly the imbalance between the breadth of the mobilizations and their political expression by the ANC
Nonetheless, the mass actions of past months have a contradictory content. The ANC leaders have made a number of tactical calculations without abandoning their central aim - the interim coalition government. However, mass action tactics have effects independent of political manoeuvres; thus we also have to look at the former's impact above and beyond the supposed or apparent aims of the ANC leadership.
The mass mobilizations express a definite relation of the masses to the negotiations. It would thus be vain to engage in abstract denunciations of negotiations when millions of people hope they will put an end to their misery. The best policy in these circumstances is to accept this reality and put forward in the social movements demands that help them to take on a radical cutting edge, while also demanding absolute transparency in the negotiations.
The violence and social disintegration in some townships are certainly crucial problems. Nobody can believe that the movement is still on the offensive and that it is a candidate for power. But this does not mean that we are in a situation where it is necessary to reduce aspirations and demands. The problem that is thus posed for the ranks of the ANC and COSATU is: what are the negotiations really about?
An explanation is needed as to why a successful relaunch of mass mobilizations should lead in a few days to a retreat in terms of demands on the regime. One of the most revealing comments came after the publication of the interview with Nelson Mandela from secretary of COSATU's Western Cape region: "We know the people want action... Whatever he has said does not affect what we've planned for October 12 [the day when a special sitting of parliament begins]. We will have a day of action and are not thinking of deviating from our
The negotiations are thus going to restart in a new framework - which has been reshaped in a way unforeseen by the two main protagonists. The regime has seen its position weakened by the economic crisis, while the ANC must deal with considerable questioning in its own ranks and beyond. * 4. The value of De Beers' shares lost $740 m and the firm paid out the second lowest dividend in its history 5. The Argus, September 17, 1992. The same statement, furthermore, protests against the ANC's decision to cancel the planned march in the Bophutswana bantustan. It calls for a day of mourning for the 24 killed at Bisho. The local employers who were asked to close for the occasion stated it had "a sympathetic stance" and a "no work, no pay approach".
POLAND Strike at FSM-Fiat ends AFTER a strike and occupation lasting 55 days and supported towards the end by a hunger strike by some 20 workers (See IV, no. 235, September 28,199), the strike committee at the FSM (Fiat) plant in Tychy decided to suspend their action on September 15. The proposed agreement states that wages should rise towards a monthly average of 4.1 million zlotys (as against 3.1 million at the start of September.) However, management has not given firm assurances on this
Furthermore, wage differentials are to be reduced from a ratio of 1:4.7 to 1:2.5. Finally, the 347 strikers sacked for disciplinary reasons will be allowed to appeal and their appeal will be "heard with understanding" by management.
Overall we can see this as a partial defeat for the longest and most determined strike of this summer. * IV INTERNATIONAL Ninth international youth AT the invitation of the Portuguese Revolutionary Socialist Party (PSR — Portuguese section of the Fourth International), more than 800 young people gathered close to the city of Coimbra in Portugal from July 24 to 31, 1992.
Thus, a good turnout for the ninth international camp of youth organizations in political solidarity with the Fourth International. The young revolutionaries have promised to do even better for the tenth anniversary camp next year.
The success of this meeting - this was the best attended camp so far is based on the fact that the camp is not only aimed at youth who are already politically convinced. This was the first camp for 60% of the young people there. Themes that were discussed included European unity, the Yugoslav crisis, ecology, the pillage of the Third World, anti-militarism
More than 40% of the participants were not members of the movement. They were often very young — the average age was 20, but many delegations had an average of about 18. These young people have different experiences from those who attended the camp in its early years at the start
At hat time, political experience was the fruit of student, pacifist and anti-racist movements which have subsequently found themselves in a radically changed situation. The change does not only mean different types of debate — tactics towards reformist currents are much less discussed
AROUND
October 12, 1992
THE
WORLD
- but also a different type of revolt, which, while often very radical, has not yet led to new forms of organization.
The presence of young people from Eastern Europe over the past two years has added a new dimension to the camp, adding much to the ever-present discussion on the type of Europe we want.
For the first time this year the youth organizations decided to organize a central forum on the question of sexuality in which it was argued that, while sexuality is an individual choice, it is nonetheless a political question in our societies.
Social relations, claimed by the system to be "natural behaviour" impose not only a certain type of domination of men over women but also a certain type of sexuality considered acceptable, condemning others to marginality and repression. This normalization oppresses not only those who refuse to accept it, such as lesbians and gay men but also those who agree to put themselves through its narrow mill.
One of the best of the camp's social events challenged these taboos; the lesbians and gay men present organized a disco whose free atmosphere will remain in the memories of all those present.
Given the bourgeois offensive underway in all areas, these questions too will be part of our effort to project an alternative vision of society.
To sum up, the atmosphere at the camp was one of subversion of and insubordination to the established order - Sophie Massouri. *
NEW ZEALAND Kiwis vote for change NEW ZEALAND held its third referendum since 1940 on Saturday, September 19, 1992 — 24 hours before the French vote on Maastricht. Two ballots were held: one asked voters to choose between keeping or changing the current "first-past-the-post" electoral system, the other asked them to pick between four variants of proportional representa-
The result was an overwhelming rejection of the status quo. In response to the first ballot, 85% of voters plumped for change. When it came to voting for the method by which they want to elect their representatives to parliament, 70% chose the mixed member proportional (MMP) system (the German model).
Currently party representation in parliament stands as follows: National (Conservative) 65; Labour 29; Liberals (a splinter from National during this term of office 2; and New Labour ( a split from Labour during its last term in office) 1.
Now, using the results of the last election political scientists have estimated that had MMP applied the allocation of seats to each party would have been as follows: National 60, Labour 44, New Labour 6 and 9 for the Greens.
In other words, if MMP had been in force in 1990, instead of an absolute majority of 13(15 before the split) in a house of 98, the National majority would have been 1 and the Liberal split would have meant a minority government that could have been removed by a vote of no confidence.
It is clear that many New Zealanders voted for change on Saturday precisely as a protest against the two main parties and the sweeping "restructuring" (deregulation and privatization of the economy and erosion and elimination of democracy) that has been imposed without mandate and against party manifesto by both the Labour and National
AROUND THE WORLD governments in past years.
The result is a slap in the face for National, Labour and big business who openly campaigned against it. The prime minister went so far as to threaten that the four Maori seats would be abolished if a proportional system was selected This cynicism was compounded just a few days before the referendum when a Labour activist accused Labour and National of collusion in a recent by-election. It seems the two parties traded computer data with the view that each should maximize its votes to defeat the Alliance (of the so-called third parties: the Green; the Liberal; the New Labour; the Democrat and the Mana Motuhake parties).
According to polls, National, Labour and the Alliance each enjoy around 30% of total support. Ironically, the two traditional parties have more to fear if proportional representation does not succeed - the Alliance came into existence with recognition that the first-past-the-post system under-rates third party votes in terms of parliamentary representation. Already a Green Party spokesperson has said that once a proportional system is in place there will be little reason to remain under the Alliance umbrella.
New Labour leader Jim Anderton described the referendum as a "tribute to the people of New Zealand... who have struck a blow for freedom". Helen Clark, deputy leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party saw things rather differently. She reckoned the results showed voters had "intellectual difficulty in selecting options". According to her, people who voted for change but did not tick a reform option "really wanted to preserve the current system". Prime Minister Jim Bolger explained away the size of the vote for change by pointing to the low turnout (just over 50% of eligible votes were cast).
Political scientists have responded to this by pointing out that, in addition to inclement weather, the main causes for low voter turnout were loss of faith in the parliamentary process and doubt that the current crop of politicians will actually respect the voters' choice in such matters. Saturday's referendum was non-binding and the matter goes to the vote again at the next general election. Between now and then, the politicians will have a lot of room for manoeuvre —indeed they have already started. On September 21 the prime minister raised the idea that support for the introduction of an upper house (senate) should also be canvassed at the
Septeener 21.190. Geoff Pearce, 19
September 21, 1992. *
# 236 Internationa/ Viewpoint
LEBANON parliament