Milosevic still faces serious difficulties. He easily won the election to become a Half victory, half defeat President of the Yugoslav Federation (Serbia and Montenegro). But he is confronted with growing resistance to his rule, even among his former socialist partners.
The big issue is privatisation. One strategy is to consolidate a centralised federal state, from where to implement a policy of privatisation. Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic, campaigning for reelection, is Milosevic's key ally in this strategy. He is opposed in the Montenegrin election by another former "socialist comrade" , Milo Djukanovic, who calls for more independence for Montenegro in order to consolidate and control the rhythm of privatisation, to the benefit of the upper class in the junior Republic. His policies are similar to those of the (exCommunist) new Social Democrats in Slovenia, the richest Republic of ex- Yugoslavia, which now has an Association Agreement with the European Union.
It remains to be seen what position this Montenegrin resistance to Milosevic will take over Kosovo, the Albanian-populated province of Serbia. The 'ultras' are coming
The main problem in Serbia is the rise of Vojislav Seselj's ultra-nationalist Radical Party. It came second to Milosevic's Socialist Party in parliamentary elections last September, benefiting from the structure of the electoral constituencies, and the divisions and inconsistencies of the "democratic" opposition.
Lacking a qualified majority, Milosevic's party will have to find alliances for the future. This will encourage the division of the opposition. Rumours say that 6 International Viewpoint #294
Albania The Albanian insurrection stopped naltway. victory nas been seized by a "Socialist" party whose first concern is "disarming the armed citizenry" Georges Mitralias In late June and early July the dictatorial president Sali Berisha's suffered a crushing electoral defeat, and Fatos Nano's socialists took a majority of seats large enough to enable them to revise the constitution. So, at first glance all is well in a country that, just four months ago, was at the edge of civil war.
The first lesson to draw from these events is clear: struggle pays! President Berisha and his police regime, which seemed unshakeable, have been swept aside. The central demand of the Albanian people has been satisfied. The road travelled in only four months is enormous. The Albanian example will not fail to inspire all those — in the Balkans and else-
- who face antidemocratic regimes of the same type.
That said, this indisputable popular victory has nonetheless left a bitter taste. First, victory was usurped, seized by those in the elite who got along well with Berisha, his secret police and their "pyramid schemes," and those "oppositionists" who limited their protest to a few calls for help directed to the European Union and the United States.
The election winners do not intend to satisfy any of the people's other demands (full compensation to the victims of the "pyramid schemes". ', arrest Berisha and his collaborators, dismantle the repressive apparatuses, etc.) Nothing suggests that those who won the June 29 elections are qualitatively different from yesterday's
While Berisha sits safe and secure in the new Albanian Parliament, banking establishments like Vefa, enriched by the "pyramids," continue their activities as if nothing had happened. The Nano government has other things to worry about. For Nano, the top priority is "disarming the armed citizenry"! Not disarming bandits, note, but "the armed citizenry"!
It was the armed citizens and their insurrection which obliged Berisha to form the "transitional" government of Socialist Party leader Bashkim Fino. It was armed citizens who freed Fatos Nano from Berisha's jails. It was the armed citizens who resisted repeated attacks and obliged the regime to accede to elections. And it was the armed citizens who voted for the Socialists and their allies on June 29th.
It is as if all this never happened. For Fatos Nano, like for the IMF, the European Union and western editorialists, it was all only "Albania's tribal traditions
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Bosnian mixed results
Unlike the Serbian presidential elections, Bosnian municipal voting mobilised a huge proportion of the electorate (including "absentee" participants, who cast votes in their commune of origin, rather than where they live now).
The final results were not known as we went to press, but it seems that those in the Republika Srpska (RS) who opposed Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic's SDS voted either for Seselj's Radical Party, or the Socialist party (SP), which supports the president of the Republika Srpska, Biljana Plavsic. Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic has succeeded in ensuring that new parliamentary elections will be held in November, as Plavsic has
The implementation of the Dayton agreements is the pre-condition for any international subsidies to re-build the wartorn Republika Srpska. As a result, Plavsic, like Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, has decided to collaborate with the western powers in the trial of the most extreme war criminals. This could prove to be an important source of resistance to
In Plavsic's stronghold of Banja Luka, coming to the surface" when the financial pyramids collapsed!
But the Albanian people's armed insurrection did happen. Despite its (understandable) programmatic limits, its (predictable) democratic illusions and its (excusable) organisational weaknesses, the insurrection established a counter-power, and dominated the Albanian political scene through four long months which made Albania tremble.
Where are the insurgents now? What of their insurrection? At first glance, they have vanished without a trace. Even in the rebellious and suspicious South, Fatos Nano is celebrated as the country's saviour. For the moment, the new government rules as absolute master and there is no obvious discontent.
This is no surprise. The insurrectionary committees were not prepared for such a change in the situation. Having accepted the possibility of a proxy victory over Berisha, the rebelling citizens and National Salvation Committee put their trust in the Socialists who had promised them the earth
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH AND EDUCATION the opposition (mainly the Socialist Party) seems to have won a majority of votes.
Anther feature of the elections in the RS is the strong result of the "Coalition for a single and democratic Bosnia," dominated by the SDA of Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, a "Bosniak" (Bosnian Muslim), in alliance with Haris Siladjic, . whose party split from the SDA, and two smaller parties. Thanks to absentee ballots, the coalition could even win a majority of votes in Srebrenica, ethnically cleansed of its Muslim majority during the war. The coalition seems to be in the lead in most of the municipalities in the Muslim-Croat Federation, including the capital, Sarajevo.
The Coalition's defeat in Tuzla by the multi-ethnic and democratic United List led by Selim Beslagic confirms the popularity of the mayor and his centre-left supporters. But it also reflects the fact that much of the town's refugee population chose to vote in Srebrenica, from where
Another factor to watch was the strong result of the Social Democratic Party, in Sarajevo and elsewhere. It surprised observers by doing better than Beslagic's United List everywhere except Tuzla.
It remains to be seen where to situate (including their defrauded savings). Tired and frightened by Berisha's tension development of uncontrolled Mafia-style armed gangs, in the end they preferred to await solid evidence of the new rulers' capacities. Their national co-ordinating committee met for the last time in Vlore on July 11-12 and adjourned without setting anther meeting.
Still, the co-ordination had the time to warn that the Nano government will be judged on its actions. And they affirmed that all the initial demands remained. And significantly, they preferred not to answer the new authorities, who were already demanding that they lay down their arms. With one voice, all Albanians declare even now that will only surrender their arms when they have their money back.
No stabilisation, even the most basic, of the economic situation can be foreseen in the medium term. If we add the Nano government's firm intention to apply the full IMF "reconstruction programme" public spending", then it's not difficult to
Europe * zagreb
CROATIA
Belgrade
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REPUBLIC
SERBIA
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FEDERATION agreement line
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MONTENEGRO
ALBANIA such a party in the broad spectrum of central and East European
"social democparties today. But their votes certainly express a popular resistance to nationalist and neo-liberal policies. These results sound like an open criticism of the
OSCE policy which, both in Brcko and in
Tuzla, made last moment concessions to the local dominant nationalist party
(respectively the SDS and HDZ) who wanted to boycott those elections for fear of their own defeat. *
The new prime minister and Socialist Party man Fatos strong
Nano: "the central axes of our foreign policy will be Albania's joining the European
Union and NATO, as well as developing our relations with the
United States."
imagine what might happen in this country where unemployment has reached 80% and 40% of the population lives below the absolute poverty line.
The Socialist Party's state of grace can't last forever. Given that the new regime's margin of manoeuvre remains very narrow, despite its total faithfulness to the west. and especially to its patron, the
US, much will depend on how hard it will
(soon) demand that the "armed citizenry"
turn in their guns.
A slide to authoritarianism can't be ruled out: the IMF insists that as an absolute condition for any extension of credit, that the Nano government have total control over all Albanian territory.
The Fragmentation of Yugoslavia: an overview by Catherine Samary
But the Albanian people is still on the alert, and could again take to the streets to push through its demands. And the next time, it will doubless do so with many fewer illusions. *
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